Game is 1/2 hero on button with 800 effective. Low jack and cutoff limp for 2 i raise to 15 with 9D/5D (ambitious and a fold most of the time i know). Small blind (loose player went all in for 150 vs 3 bet with J/10 and he was against KK and AA and hit 2 pair on flop and won the main pot). villian 550 effective calls 15. Low jack cutoff both fold. Flop is Q/D, 8D, 3D. Villian checks i bet 35. He calls quickly. Turn is 9/C. Villian checks and i bet 70. He takes 3 seconds and raises to 270?? I was so confused on what he had and what to do. Do i just smooth call the 270 to make sure another diamond doesnt hit river if it does maybe i can fold? Or do i put him all in on the turn and risk him folding when i 95% sure in the moment i have the better hand? I end up just calling. 5 of spades hits river. He shoves all in for 230 i snap call and 9 high flush is good. Whats the better play here calling turn? Or putting him all in (would he really fold for 230 more when he already had 60% of his stack already in the pot?
Thank you for posting.
You became lost in this hand because you did not have a concise plan for it.
Having a good plan ahead of time for each of our hand ranges is crucial to be successful.
The good news is it is a skill we can practice away from the tables so that we do not lose our way in the heat of the moment.
You raised 95s in POS- 400bb effective a hand that would love folds preflop and post flop when you knew there was a player in the SB that does not fold and 2 limpers. Which means you could have gone multiway easily not a good outcome for 95s 400bb deep in a large pot. Stack size influences our plan here.
Then the second best thing that could happen happens. The only caller is the one player who you know is likely to punt their stack if you hit. The player you know has wide ranges for big bets and does not fold. However even this V is 275bb deep not great for 95s. You want to have a plan before you see the flop.
You flop a flush and bet pot what was your plan? What range were you targeting?
What action did you think this V type would take vs that bet with the range we were behind?
You were not prepared for aggression on the V's part on the turn why? The V was loose and willing to gamble as shown in the previous hand. We have to plan for that. If we have a plan for the turn we know the V has 3 actions they can take- fold call raise. With a plan for these actions no action confuses us.
You then say I am winning and I am 95% sure (there are a lot of flush combos that crush us and could be played exactly like this how can you be 95% sure?) but I may call and fold the river?
That is not a strong plan vs this V type-95% sure we are winning but not wanting to get .3 SPR all-in on the turn and maybe folding the river for .3 SPR vs a V with wide ranges.
The NL poker law is if you are winning it is never wrong to stick your chips in the middle when SPR is less than 1. Correctly folding rivers is 2 difficult when we are this high up in our range vs this V type with this SPR.
The outcome in any 1 hand does not matter -what matters is gaining the skill to preplan our
hands street by street and apply that skill to thousands of hands.
Thanks again for posting it takes courage to display our errors and I hope my perspective will be of value to you.
