Probability

M

Marios413

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Nov 21, 2025
Total posts
2
BR
Chips
49
Royal Flush is extremely rare, with a probability of around 0.000001539 in the initial five-card hands. Straight Flush follows with 0.00001539, while pairs are common (42% of hands)
 
Omar.Imrane

Omar.Imrane

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Jun 27, 2022
Total posts
145
DZ
Chips
276
A Royal Flush is so rare that if you wait for it, your coffee will get cold, your tea will get cold, and the table might even close 😅
Most of the time, you’ll end up with a simple pair… and that 42% is basically poker telling you: learn how to play what you’re dealt, not what you’re dreaming of.
Poker doesn’t reward those who wait for miracles — it rewards those who know how to handle average hands.
 
black and

black and

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Sep 15, 2020
Total posts
2,002
Awards
3
UA
Chips
478
I get a Royal Flush about once a year. Definitely not more often than that. I've been playing poker for about seven years and have had a Royal Flush about seven or eight times.
 
flattershay

flattershay

Visionary
Platinum Level
Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Total posts
944
Awards
16
Chips
71
I only got it 1 or 2 times. It's pretty rare.
 
austral

austral

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Sep 24, 2025
Total posts
209
Awards
1
AR
Chips
262
The probabilities show why poker is a game of small, repeated decisions. Rare hands are anecdotal; the edge comes from exploiting mistakes in common situations.
 
Mag_P1e

Mag_P1e

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Sep 27, 2022
Total posts
356
Awards
1
UA
Chips
665
In 4 years of more or less active play, 2-3k tournaments, I still haven't collected a royal flush, but I folded it twice, but there would have been 1 card each, which is not cool:D
 
monkeytilter

monkeytilter

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2020
Total posts
1,183
Awards
2
Chips
534
The numbers you have quoted are for 5 card "straight" poker, who plays those crusty old games these days?:ROFLMAO:
 
steve01991

steve01991

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Total posts
2,086
Awards
5
Chips
515
so rare, i did get it once in over 20 years online, but i also received it once in my monthly poker game! Thrill of a lifetime!
 
Roller

Roller

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Mar 14, 2009
Total posts
2,577
Awards
4
US
Chips
668
It’s a good reminder that winning poker isn’t about hoping for miracles—it’s about playing the hand you actually have and making repeatable, profitable decisions.
 
antonis32123

antonis32123

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Dec 25, 2014
Total posts
7,300
Awards
20
GR
Chips
693
I know that e{me hands at| rare , some combinations of hands are |extremely hard to happen . But unfortunately I see far too many times very bad beats , crazy hands only to lose patience and money . Espe6ghis happens late in a tourney , so
 
D

diegovasques90

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 22, 2025
Total posts
27
BR
Chips
55
I keep trying to engrave those odds in my head. I got tired of losing chips because I followed Turn and River believing that I was going to close the sequence. It's important to have these numbers aligned and thus lose less or win more chips.
 
WladiYoga

WladiYoga

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Nov 20, 2025
Total posts
113
DE
Chips
75
Royal Flush is extremely rare, with a probability of around 0.000001539 in the initial five-card hands. Straight Flush follows with 0.00001539, while pairs are common (42% of hands)
Yes, but is the calculation another for let's say straight flush if you are already holding any two suited connectors? I would really like to know. Like if you have 4-6 of spades or hearts or clubs.
 
Top