Is my math right?

Say I've got a one card flush draw and I'm in the hand with just one guy. If the pot is $6 and he bets $2, is he giving me odds to call for my draw since if I call the bet, the pot will become 1/5th of what I call? Or is it wrong to think of it that way?

I know that draw is actually 19ish%, but for the sake of simplicity...

1 card to fill the flush?

Yes you have odds to call without any river action.

OMG - you were not kidding about your CC id!

You also have to ask yourself if either of your cards hit will that give you the best hand.

Example if the board shows all low cards and a 4 flush on the turn - he might be betting top pair especially if he bet so small like that he doesn't want to get reraised and having to dump the hand. If you had AcKh and the 4 flush is clubs and you have the ace of clubs, but the next highest card on the board is a 10 or similar if you hit your A or K will that give you the best hand? It's a tuff call on the river if you hit an ace or K, but he bets the pot. Is he betting to try and get you to fold your 4 flush, bluffing, or does he already have a flush? You have to know a little more about him to call here.

The other thing to think about is how big is your flush draw? Is it big enough that if you make your flush draw you'll beat his possible flush or flush draw? Did he bet that much because he has the ace of clubs and think your on the same flush draw so he prices you in on purpose hoping for another club to hit giving him the nut flush vs. your 2nd best hand.

I'm just saying all this because you should think of more than just pot odds to call.

dj11 said:

1 card to fill the flush?

Click to expand...

I meant I only need one more suited card to hit the flush, whether I have two suited cards or one in my hand. Did I use the wrong terminology?

Thanks for going the extra mile, Brent.

Ben

I think you are not figuring it simply.

On the flop you have 2 cards to come if you stay in the hand. If you flop 4 flushed, using your example, you are getting 4-1 odds to call the $2 bet. After you call the pot will be 5x your call, but you can't (or shouldn't) add your call into the pot odds before you make the call. The call should stand on its own merits.

Incidentally, without getting picky and splitting percentages, you can use that same 4-1 number if you flop an open ended straight draw, or a set hoping for a boat. Yes they are not exact.

The odds on completing any drawing hand are complicated when you watch TV because the TV editors computer has taken into consideration all the cards seen so far, including mucked hands. So for purposes of quick mental calculations I have found it simple to assume a flat deal, meaning the suits were spread even. In a 9 handed game with 18 cards dealt, 4.5 hearts were dealt (beware the broken hearts, they tend to drive Toyota 4-runners).

I usually equate the possibility of another player having a better 2 suit holding in my suit about equivalent to the bluffing possibilities inherent in a 2 suited flop. You've seen it often enuf, we all have, some folks see a 2 suited flop as a great opportunity to represent the flush draw. And even if they flopped a set, they will play it as if it was the draw. Draws tend to make big pots.

These odds are not actually correct, and there are many folk who could recite them to 3 digits, but all 3 draws are close and the 4-1 odds makes it easy to lump them together. This reply also mentions nothing about implied odds. Implied odds take into account future actions. What can you expect villain to do, or the other 3 players in the pot?

Remember that when you call a pot odds situation, you change the odds for anyone sitting behind you.

You know I've been trying to start considering "Effective Odds". Because even if you are drawing towards the flush and the pot is so small, are you really getting the best of it drawing towards it like that? This assumes heads up.

For every 2 flush flop here you're getting pot odds so you'll call, meaning you've called $8 to $2. But you really have to account for the next round when your opponent will most likely bet again, lets say another $2. You would almost NEVER call that, because you'll either raise or fold now that there are no cards to come. so 35% of the time (chance of completing a flush by the river) you'll raise to $4 dollars and the rest of the time you'll fold, so you've now risked $6 (small bet to call and now $4 to raise him) for his equal pot contribution of $6, where he may fold or call, and ONLY if he calls are you making money, and even then it's CERTAINLY not giving you effective odds. This is a brutish example that ignores who put money originally into the pot, and the fact that the pot is unrealistically small I think.


Does anyone consider the effective odds? After I read about them I was like .... "Wow why doesn't anyone talk about this? It seems like a big deal."

Pot is $6+$2 and you have to call $2, as 25%

Post flop: you have 36% hitting the flush, in that case you have the odds calling that bet.
Post Turn: in only 18% you will hit the flush, in that case you should not call the bet.

only from mathematic aspect.