I have a couple of probability questions. Math is not my forte, however, I would really like to know if anyone has answers to these questions. Assume the room is a five-person SNG.
- Double down
- I just won a hand. How does this affect my likelihood of winning the next hand when one, two, or three players remain?
- What if I had good hands both times?
- Triple down
- I just won two hands in a row. How does this affect my likelihood of winning the next hand when one, two, or three players remain?
- What if I had good hands each time?
As Andyreas say, the outcome of each hand in poker is totally independent from the outcome of previous
hands. This is because, the deck is shuffled in between hands unlike in for instance
blackjack played in a live casino. So when the hand begin, its the exact same 52 card deck as in any other hand, and all possible outcomes are exactly as likely, as they always are.
- On a flop with two pair, straight, and flush possibilities.
- I have three of a kind. How worried should I be about the straight and flush?
It depends on the number of players in the hand, their position and the composition of the board. If for instance your opponent opened UTG, he is more likely to have high cards and less likely to have low cards. So if for instance AQ made a straight, then he can easily have that hand. But if 42 made a straight, he probably does not have it, because he would have folded it preflop.
- What if I hold one of the cards to make the straight?
Then you have a blocker making it less likely, your opponent has a straight. If for instance you have KQ, there are only 12 combos of AQ and 12 combos of Q9, that your opponent can have rather than 16 of each. So on a board of KJT he is less likely to have a straight, but he can still have it.
- What if I hold one of the flush cards.
Same situation. If the board is Ks9c2s-5s, and you have AsKd, then your opponent can not have AsXs, which makes it less likely, he has a flush. But he can still have it. For instance he could have QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs etc.
