$1 NL HE MTT:

Fallenglory

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  • #1
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So running ITM in the Daily Big on GG tonight. Had just lost a portion from my stack the hand before, then :qs4::qc4: comes up. I open 2,2 BB's.

Flop comes up :10c4::2s4::ac4: BB calls and shoves my c-bet of about 40% pot . Probably the right play is to fold in this position. But I had some notes that this player over defended his blinds (he shoved all in before against the button). So I call villain shows :as4::4c4:

Turn and River are no help :2d4::7h4:

Any tips?
 
Fallenglory

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  • #2
puzzlefish

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  • #3
You note that he over-defends but nothing about his tendency to jam over cbets. Having one instance of him doing that doesn't mean very much unless you know he jammed with air before. In this case I think seeing the ace on the flop should be sufficient to fold your Queens to the jam. You are far from being pot committed and there's no hurry to get it in on a flop like that.
 
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primrose

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  • #4
Agree with puzzlefish. These tendencies are not particularly related. But it's a very understandable mistake to make; you want to make use of the information you have. I've done similar noninferences a bunch of times before.

This leaves the question of whether you should generally fold there. I think the answer is sigh yes. You need like 30%, which you probably don't have.
 
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fundiver199

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  • #5
I think, you should check back the flop. The stack to pot ratio is very low, and your hand does not need any protection. He either has an ace, or he is drawing very thin. You even have a club in your hand, so the only card, you dont want to see on the turn, is a K. The advantage of checking back flop is, that you make your hand look weak, which can induce bluffs. And if he check again, you are probably ahead and can bet for value.
 
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fundiver199

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  • #6
primrose said:
This leaves the question of whether you should generally fold there. I think the answer is sigh yes. You need like 30%, which you probably don't have.
Click to expand...
Its pretty close. If he is check-jamming AX and all his flushdraws, Hero has 29% equity assuming, that any suited hand is defended, and that AJ+ get it in pre.
 
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  • #7
I think a lot of players aren't jamming all their flush draws though. I'd count them at most half if I were to make a range.
 
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  • #8
I think a lot of players are not jamming all their AX, because this makes no sense at all. AX needs even less protection than QQ and play far better as a check-call. This would allow Hero to bluff the turn, and if Hero check back, Villain can still get it in on the river. So using the same logic we should also discount AX. Of course its a 1$ game, so its not surpricing, that Villain is bad and play A4 this way. But that still does not mean, its his entire range. Maybe he can also have TX or total air.
 
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primrose

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  • #9
(I'm not really using any logic tbh, I'm just querying my intuition, which says people jam Ax much more often. if I were Villain I'd be much more likely to do the opposite and jam flush draws but not Ax.)
 
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  • #10
primrose said:
(I'm not really using any logic tbh, I'm just querying my intuition, which says people jam Ax much more often. if I were Villain I'd be much more likely to do the opposite and jam flush draws but not Ax.)
Click to expand...
Exactly. With a stack this short the only reason to take aggressive action on the flop is for fold equity. So personally I might be really unbalanced here and check-jam draws but not AX. Or even run a stop-and-go, which mean donk jamming the flop. But you are probably right, that a random fish or bad reg in a $1 MTT think more in terms like "LOL I have top pair, I am all-in".
 
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Fallenglory

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  • #11
Thank you Puzzlefish and Primrose for replying and showing your insights. I've learned a few things here:
  1. Notes are nice, but shouldn't overrule standard tendencies unless they are very spot specific.
  2. Leading out on the flop here, either c-betting or protecting my hand isn't great since AX is well within Villains range.
  3. If stacks were more shallow shoving the flop or preflop is likely stronger.
 
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sandy358

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  • #12
Fallenglory said:
So running ITM in the Daily Big on GG tonight. Had just lost a portion from my stack the hand before, then :qs4::qc4: comes up. I open 2,2 BB's.

Flop comes up :10c4::2s4::ac4: BB calls and shoves my c-bet of about 40% pot . Probably the right play is to fold in this position. But I had some notes that this player over defended his blinds (he shoved all in before against the button). So I call villain shows :as4::4c4:

Turn and River are no help :2d4::7h4:

Any tips?
Click to expand...
What's the stack depth and what percentage of the pot was the shove?
 
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  • #13
Oh, saw the replay. I think it's a normal call, but depends where ITM you were and the ICM levels. I believe ChipEV-wise you have decent enough equity to call a flop pot-size bet, especially considering that you have a club, unless your opponent severely underbluffs.
 
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