$5.50 NL HE MTT: $5.50 Mystery Bounty

This is a Mystery Bounty tournament, and here we are with 500 players left to reach the money phase. What would you do here with 15bb?




GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 800/1,600 (240 ante) - 7 players

UTG: 95,017 (59 bb)
MP: 32,933 (21 bb)
MP+1: 34,479 (22 bb)
CO: 102,875 (64 bb)
BU: 54,298 (34 bb)
SB (Hero): 24,872 (16 bb)
BB: 37,531 (23 bb)

Pre-Flop: (4,080) Hero is SB with 9♠ 9♥
UTG raises to 3,500, MP 3-bets to 32,693 (all-in), 3 players fold, SB (Hero) ?

Easy answer UTG open and UTG+1 3-bet means 99 the ultra bottom of your range.
Normal pus Range is KK+. So it is an easy fold.

Goggelheimer said:

Easy answer UTG open and UTG+1 3-bet means 99 the ultra bottom of your range.
Normal pus Range is KK+. So it is an easy fold.

Click to expand...

yeah, so, this is a good reminder that jamming ranges are very unintuitive, hence having tools like ICMizer. What you said would be much more accurate if people were deep stacked.

Though, also, this is a 7handed table, the UTG is one before the LJ and next player is the LJ. It's not like it's an early position open and jam.

You are still far from the money and sitting on a pretty short stack, so I think, we can basically analyse this as a chip-EV hand. ICMizer has 77 as basically break-even and 99 winning you more than 3.000 chips. It does however assume, that BB will never call, because it can only handle 3-way action. In real life BB with sometimes wake up with a big hand and call, so the true EV will be somewhat lower. ICMizer assume, that MP is jamming 11% of hands. If he is a bit tighter like 7% of hands, 99 is breakeven. So I think, this one is close, and I would not consider either decision to be a significant mistake.

primrose said:

yeah, so, this is a good reminder that jamming ranges are very unintuitive, hence having tools like ICMizer. What you said would be much more accurate if people were deep stacked.

Though, also, this is a 7handed table, the UTG is one before the LJ and next player is the LJ. It's not like it's an early position open and jam.

Click to expand...

Nash ranges for shoving (LJ 21 BB, 1. picture) and rejaming (SB 16 BB, 2. picture)
But I think folding 99 (for me the bottom of the SB shoving range, 22 - 88 no way this deep) here is not the worst mistake, keeping in mind that at least UTG will call this double AI.

LJ jam 21 BB:



SB rejam 16 BB:

No I don't think it's a big mistake at all, but neither is it an easy fold.

Goggelheimer said:

SB rejam 16 BB:

Click to expand...

This is not a rejamming spot though but a calling spot, where ranges are always significantly tighter.

to me this is a coin flip to call or fold. because it depends on the type of player the villain is, is the villain a tight player or a loose type . but most players like to move in with AK in early position . but i would call dependent on the player type .