What If - Episode 5

Hey Everyone, and welcome to another action packed episode of What If? In this episode: what if...

You are dealt and you are the big blind. The blinds are 100/200 and you have $20,000 in chips. Three players call the big blind and the player in late position raises it to $600. Small blind folds and you re-raise to $2,000. Everyone folds except for the player in late position who calls (let's call him Ed). The flop comes:



You bet $5,000 and Ed calls. The turn:



You bet $8,000 and Ed calls. The River:



What do you do now? Do you check or bet? If you bet, what would you do if Ed calls?

You have to bet here but I would have bet harder on the trips on the flop to begin with..If Ed is going to be chasing a flush or a straight draw, I want to mess his odds up and make sure I give him incorrect odds to call.

The player in late position Ed only raised 600.. I would put him on either A,10 or medium pockets.. cause chasing the 4 outs when the odds wouldn't warrent a call(the pot commited syndrome would though).. you still have to continue though.. You shown strength.. have to continue with strength.

t1riel said:

If you bet, what would you do if Ed calls?

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I think i would be obligated to show him my cards and pray they hold up, knowing a call means I am probably dead. LOL.


Your options are check with the intentions of folding to any bet or raise.

I think you have to keep firing out here. You have been the aggressor so far in the hand and say he doesn't have either 2 hearts or the J, you will win with a fold. You have 5k left, just over 10BB, which will make you short stacked soon enough and you are in a hand that can make you 35-40k. Go big or go home! I can't let 3/4 of my stack go without seeing what he has. I throw out my last 5k in chips and see what he was calling with. If he chased and caught, then I will pay him off.

You didn't sayhow many chips Ed had. Personally if he had less than me I would have laid down the bomb and taken what fell.

Betting 8k on the turn is commiting yourself to this pot. I would rather just push all-in on the turn instead of betting over half my remaining stack... This makes him choose if he wants to put a lot of chips in the pot at once, instead of a couple small bets while seeing additional cards.

PUSH the turn.

twizzybop said:

You have to bet here but I would have bet harder on the trips on the flop to begin with..If Ed is going to be chasing a flush or a straight draw, I want to mess his odds up and make sure I give him incorrect odds to call.

The player in late position Ed only raised 600.. I would put him on either A,10 or medium pockets.. cause chasing the 4 outs when the odds wouldn't warrent a call(the pot commited syndrome would though).. you still have to continue though.. You shown strength.. have to continue with strength.

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He bet just under the pot, my math might be off, but how does he have drawing odds? Even with a flush and a straight draw, that's a maximum of 18 outs, or a 38% chance to catch a card. The bet is 42% of the pot.

Although it would be necessary to know Ed's stacksize, I think that you should have pushed all-in on the turn....
If he calls your $8k turn bet, he is calling your $5k river bet.

Why not make the turn bet a $13k bet into a $14,100 pot?

Its a must that the Hero pushes all in here - a relative no brainer here.


The problem is the hand was played wrong from the flop IMO..

Assuming that both players are top notch players, and that both play a somewhat tight/aggressive game like most pros...this is how the pot IMO should have gone.

pre-flop action...exactly what you want. 1 opponent against a big pp. Good.

Flop gives you top set, with a possible flush and straight draws. Hero should strongly consider a check-raise to steal the pot outright here. There are too many draws IMO to WANT to play this to the end. Yes, you flopped the nuts, but its quite possible that you are an underdog to the hand if he has TJh. (of course we know he doesn't have hte 10h because it comes on the river, but as of this moment hero does not know this). TJh is a very possible hand, the best suited connector aside from AK imo, since every straight flopped is the nuts. ANYHOW - if he bets off of your check, which he should when you check, he should put you on a medium pair like 99, you raise him all in right then - this is Opprotunity 1 to win the pot even if the cards to come would give it to him.

Lets pretend that he didn't check. IMO 5k is too low. Sure, its over-sized, but i'd make a 2x the pot bet at this if i didn't check. He's now gettnig HORRIBLE odds to continue his draw (if he's drawing at one hand, not one of two hands). an 8k bet here is better IMO than a 5k bet. It still leaves you with 10k in chips. He calls. Turn comes 9. If he was playing TJh he just made his straight. You've shown aggression - no use stopping. Here is where you should make your decision to check or to push. Pushing IMO is the right call. If he calls, you're either beaten, or he was on the flush draw. To JUST be on a gutshot to call for 10k is a lousy call, and if he makes his draw, you just have to grin and bear it. Even 18k to chase a flush to the river is borderline psycotic IMO. By pushing on the turn you get your second opprotunity to win the pot right out. If he folds two hearts or a jack, the 10 doesn't come and hero wins the pot. If he calls with 2 hearts or a jack, you STILL went in with the best hand, and he sucked out. Sometimes you gotta pay a man off.

If you are still betting when the river card comes as the above situation states, then you're almost 100% beaten, but you're pot comitted anyways. You might as well fire the last 5k into the pot and hope against the odds he didn't have a flush or straight draws and had a big pocket pair like AA or QQ, or even a small one like 88 and didn't play it correctly. But all evidence points to a draw since he didn't raise your bets with an overpair (AA) or a set on the flop (88 or QQ). Any number of hands beat you any 2 hearts, 67, any or any J. I'd say you squandered your opprotunity to get a relatively large pot.

twizzybop said:

You have to bet here but I would have bet harder on the trips on the flop to begin with..If Ed is going to be chasing a flush or a straight draw, I want to mess his odds up and make sure I give him incorrect odds to call.

The player in late position Ed only raised 600.. I would put him on either A,10 or medium pockets.. cause chasing the 4 outs when the odds wouldn't warrent a call(the pot commited syndrome would though).. you still have to continue though.. You shown strength.. have to continue with strength.

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if he's solely on a flush draw on the flop a 5k bet is actually good enough to mess up his odds...if he was indeed chasing a flush he made the wrong call on the flop. I agree with you though that i'd make a harder push on my trips on the flop though...especially top trips.

shwingzilla said:

He bet just under the pot, my math might be off, but how does he have drawing odds? Even with a flush and a straight draw, that's a maximum of 18 outs, or a 38% chance to catch a card. The bet is 42% of the pot.

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200x3 +4k = 4600, 4700 if the small blind wasn't one of the callers. He actually made a >pot sized bet.

With a straight AND flush draw out, 15 outs which gives him ~52% to make the hand he's drawing at by the river. Like i posted earlier if the guy held TJh he was actually a favorite to win the pot even though the Hero was the best hand going in.

I can't see the guy calling preflop, with 10-j here.
I like the flop bet.... The turn is where I would have tried to win it with a push.