The ICM suicide

When analysing some of my slightly older hands in ICMizer I came across this one, which is a good illustration of the poker term "ICM suicide". The hand is from a 45-man On Demand SnG on PokerStars. These have since been replaced by 32-man On Demand games. But in this older format it was 7 places paying, when they filled to capacity, so this was right on the bubble.

In chip EV (early in the tournament) TT would be a trivial call for just 6.6BB. The hand is way ahead of an 8BB EP shoving range, and there is a lot of dead chips from the blinds, if they fold. So at the NASH equilibrium it stands to win almost 2.000 chips by calling, which is more than a whole staring stack of 1.500. However factoring in the bubble, calling here loses 0,7% of the price pool or 31,5% of the buyin, which makes it a very substantial mistake.

Its rare, I find mistakes this big when running through my hands, and when it happen, its usually, because I was sitting out due to an emergency toilet visit and folded KK or something of that nature. But calling here was clearly a deliberate decision, and I simply underestimated, how much I should be tightening up due to the ICM situation. Only QQ+ can make a profitable call here, while AKs is essentially breakeven.

And yes I managed to bink a suck-out, but this is not the point. Nor is it the point, that I got it in as a 4:1 dog, because this is actually a rare outcome. EP is supposed to be jamming 16% of hands with his short stack, so he only has JJ+ around 1 in 8 times. Its the disaster of being the last player to not cash, that makes TT and even JJ a fold here, not the fact he happened to have QQ this time.

Very interesting point/reminder made in this hand. With 2 shorter stacks than you as you say its ICM suicide with almost all holdings.

These kind of situtions come up a lot, where everyone is very short relative to blinds, and ICM is high, I think a lot of players continue with the feeling that I'm under 10 blinds and so 'should' shove all kinds of hands otherwise I'm just playing to cash.

Whereas in these failry short format games, its actually not that hard to go from sneaking into the money to coming Top 3 or winning the thing. So you can still play a pretty risk averse strategy, especially on the bubble

I LOVE this shit! Poker is such a simple game in it's rawest form, but when you scratch just beneath the surface, the complexities are astounding!

My ICM/bubble play definitely needs some honing, because there's no way I'm folding TT here and yet it's not even close.

Thanks for sharing.

SpanRmonka said:

These kind of situtions come up a lot, where everyone is very short relative to blinds, and ICM is high, I think a lot of players continue with the feeling that I'm under 10 blinds and so 'should' shove all kinds of hands otherwise I'm just playing to cash.

Click to expand...

We can still open shove a relatively normal range of hands, as long as we have fold equity. EPs open shoving range at equilibrium only shrink from 20% of hands in chip-EV mode to 16% of hands with this specific ICM situation. Its our calling range, that thrink dramatically, when calling and losing will bust us from the tournament or cost us most of our chips.

fundiver199 said:

We can still open shove a relatively normal range of hands, as long as we have fold equity. EPs open shoving range at equilibrium only shrink from 20% of hands in chip-EV mode to 16% of hands with this specific ICM situation. Its our calling range, that thrink dramatically, when calling and losing will bust us from the tournament or cost us most of our chips.

Click to expand...

Yep, but this also changes dramatically again if we are the short stack, instead of having two shorter than us.

I don't play these on demand SnG's......not sure I'm finding a fold here but I can be pretty tight sitting on the stone cold bubble. For me would really depend on villains VPIP and my feel/instinct. At those stakes I doubt villains VPIP is low enough to make me fold.

With that said pocket 10's sitting on the stone cold bubble and with that action ahead here just really sucks. I'm surprised at how big a mistake it would be to call here as I would think it would be a mistake just not as big as it is.

Thanks for sharing fundiver.

Cheers!!!

With a sub 3BB stack at the table, you got to practice avoidance.

Great example of why chip EV and ICM can point in completely opposite directions. Hands like this really highlight how dangerous it is to rely on early-stage instincts near the bubble.

The part that stands out most is how small the chip EV gain looks compared to how massive the ICM loss actually is. Losing 0.7% of the prize pool to win a marginal chip edge is exactly why these spots get labeled “ICM suicide.”

I also think this is a good reminder that discipline near the bubble isn’t just about avoiding marginal bluffs — it’s about folding hands that feel automatic calls everywhere else. Separating “I’m ahead of his range” from “this is profitable in tournament equity” is one of the hardest but most important skills in tournament poker.

Good insights!

Because we're very close to the bubble, with no bounties, and many players still to act after us (plus smaller stacks are about to collapse), we'll generally fold there if we consider ICM.

(Some players won't shove just what they should, which might encourage us to call, but it depends on the type of read we're getting.)

If it were based on chip ev, obviously, everything would change!