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[QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6721144, member: 305911"]
We dont know anything about villain here and the villain doesnt know anything about us.  So then we are using a population read of the typical player at 25NL for them and they are doing the same for us.  Is it common at 25NL for a button open to be 3 bet light or somewhat light from the SB?  I would think yes although I dont play 25NL so I think villain enough of the time has Ax that beats the 3 bet bluffs (A2 through A5 for example) and also could have the 88-1010 hands that beat those same bluffs.  Im not saying they have those hands that often but we block AA and KK and all other pairs that are not really low pairs (as we are closer to even with those) we are 47/53 ish flipping with so we dont need villain all that often to have A10 or so here.

I really dont like calling even though villain is probably committed at 48 BBs out the effective 100 making the SPR on the flop .5 because there is a chance they slowdown or get out of the hand with JJ or QQ here when the flop has A or K and especially an Ace.   Plus are we just folding every time we miss the flop?  That is an expensive call pre fold flop spot. Therefore, to me this is a jam or fold spot and I think its probably fairly close either way in doing the math but I think considering we already have 12 BBs in and there is maybe some small amount of fold equity (1-2% of the time maybe?) and we are flipping a huge % of the time its perfectly fine to jam over and get this in off of 100 BBs.
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