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[QUOTE="MidnightSleepless, post: 5764348, member: 430293"]
Some things to consider:
A King here is never folding - to a reasonable size bet

At NL5 I cant see many players checking an A on the flop (this may be a huge error on my part but indulge me for the rest of this)

Then we must consider all the other hands Villain could raise SB with, check flop (going to discount all A's)  and call turn and check fold river
if he gets to the river with:
QQ,JJ, maybe 99 - (all other pocket pairs are folding to turn bet or raising flop - TT)
Kx suited
KQo-K7o (don't think much lower than K7o raises SB??
QJs, QTs, Qh9h (probably)
QJo, QTo
JTo
this gives him 109 combos of hands

11BB into 14 means his MDF is 14/(14+11) = 14/25 = 56%
So for this to be profitable you need to get 44% of his range to fold.

If he folds QQ, JJ, 99, QTs, Q9s, QTo and JTo

this still leaves him with at least 71 combos of Kx and QJ, not close to getting enough of his range to fold.

Now if you add in some Ax hands that could check the flop things change a bit but I still don't think this is going to be massively +EV

I would say once he check calls turn not much more to do than give up here.
[/QUOTE]

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