€500 NL HE Full Ring: Should you fold your overpair on the Turn (or the Flop)?

[primrose]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$2/$5

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

€

(Note that I'm playing 5-5 here, not 2-5, I didn't select 5-5 because I can't because it's not one of the listed stakes, but it's what my Casino started doing.)
I've bought in for a minimum of 200 but now have roughly 450. In this hand I'm in the LJ with . A strong player opens 20 UTG. I flat. the CO also flats.

Flop comes (Pot=70).

UTG checks. I bet 40. CO raises to 120. UTG gets out the way, so the relevant opponent here is just the CO.

The CO is a very MANLY poker player. He thinks the game is all about showing how MANLY you are. He's famous for playing garbage hands and then winning on low boards, as well as for making big pressure plays. He might raise a hand UTG and then show 74o after winning to show everyone how MANLY and BRAVE he is.

What this means for the hand is that if I call this bet, there is about a 100% chance that I'm facing a huge barrel on the Turn (because raising the Flop and checking the Turn wouldn't be very MANLY). So this is the only real decision point. There also isn't much of a point to going all-in because then I'll just fold out the hands that are worse.

So the question is, should I play for my entire stack here -- all 400 Euros? And I think the answer is yes. CO is absolute capable of making this play with a draw, and there are a lot of draws here. There should be more draws than 2 pair, and it's not like I'd be drawing dead against 2 pair, either. (And in case it wasn't obvious, you cannot apply conventional range analysis to this player, he could easily have 72s here. Or 57o for the flopped straight. Or pretty much any other two cards. Maybe not 52o unless he was feeling adventurous.

I call.

Turn comes (Pot=310).

I check and -- surprise! -- Villain bets 230, essentially putting me all-in (but I think I have some behind, 70 maybe, so this should be treated as about a pot-sized bet).

I just said that there was only one decision point; unfortunately that's not really true anymore since the odds of being beaten have just gotten a lot higher. 2 of clubs is a very bad card. The most plausible draw for Villain to have done this with was a five, which just got there. What should you do now?

My action:

Spoiler

fold

Reveal if I called:

Spoiler

I didn't call. However, villain showed the .

Thoughts:

Spoiler

Well, I posted this hand with the intention of analyzing this properly for the first time, so I'll do that now. This will probably be lenghty.

We have to give VIllain a range of hands that they do this play with, so, let's. This is super hard because he is such a loose canon, but I've just thrown together and used weights; the hands with no marker are there 100% of the time, the ones with yellow market 60%, blue marker 30%, pink marker 10%.



Flopzilla says I have... only 50.5% equity against this range? Damn. I was expecting more. I guess there are a lot of two pair here after all. This would mean it's a very marginal decision between call and fold, although call would still be better (not because 50.5% > 50% but because we're getting a discount).

After the Turn, our equity has shrunk to 36%. How much do we need? Well, we'd have to put in about 300 to win 900, so only a third. Again close, but theoretically a call.

Well... this was kinda disappointing, I was hoping for a more decisive result. Now I still don't know what to do. You could have villain slowplay made straights, but it will only tweak it a little. I was actually expecting for the fold to look worse because we're so priced already, but that wasn't true either, so I guess it was an okay decision.

Idk, I'm making this up as I go. LMK if you see any directional error here that would make the decision much better or worse.

 

[primrose]

On second thought, I think it should have been call-call just because it wouldn't surprise me if Villain barrels only draws but not made hands (betting on me not being capable of calling), and if that has even a low chance of being correct, it should tilt things enough to make it a call. I think I'll call next time.

Which there will be, most likely. If and when that happens, I'll post it regardless of the result.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I think, its fine to just call with JJ here against an UTG open.

Flop
I think, betting is pretty standard. If UTG is trying to play a GTO style, he could be checking QQ+, but if not then he likely missed the flop and is going to fold. Facing the raise its obviously important to know something about CO, and lets just say, he is a maniac. This mean on one hand, he could easily have smashed the board with two pair or even a straight, but he could also have a lot of bluffs.

There is an argument for just calling to keep his bluffing range alive. But that being said there are not many turn cards, you will like. A Jack would obviously be great, and a 8-T is sort of neutral, but everything else will either put out a 1-liner, pair the board or be an overcard to your pair. And if he blast, you will be in the dark and not know, if he just got there, or if he is bluffing.

So I would not hate simply jamming here to end the hand. Most of his bluffs will have equity. If he has a hand like A5, then he have 11 outs, so you would actually prefer him to fold, although its unlikely to happen. I dont know, how often a maniac is doing this with flat out nothing like say K9, which would only have 3 outs, or T9 which need a runner-runner to win.

Turn
Even though the plan on the flop would have to be to call it off on most turns, I think, maybe a 2 and 7 are the main cards, where you could consider bailing out, since they complete the only strong draw, which was 5X. So as played I think, I fold now, but I would have preferred to 3-bet jam the flop.

Spoiler
So he showed a 7, which basically mean, that he either flopped the nuts with 75, or you folded the best hand. With this reveal I still like a flop jam. If he had a hand like 77 or 76, you dont even care that much, if he call or fold, and you protect yourself from getting bluffed on the turn. Plus you also send a message, that he is not going to just randomly raise you on the flop, whenever he wants to, because sometimes he will be facing a 3-bet.

 

[primrose]

Plus you also send a message, that he is not going to just randomly raise you on the flop, whenever he wants to, because sometimes he will be facing a 3-bet.

This is true, but is it a good thing? It may be beneficial for me if he continues believing that he can just run me over because then his play becomes more predictable.

 

[Station_Master]

I agree with fundiver i think you should just 3bet shove flop. You are probably ahead and you put loads of his hands in a tough spot, where he folds a load of equity or had to call off behind.

 

[fundiver199]

This is true, but is it a good thing? It may be beneficial for me if he continues believing that he can just run me over because then his play becomes more predictable.

Maybe. But he is also completely screwing up your normal game, if he always comes after you, every time you put money into a pot. Actually in online poker having a maniac on your left can be a good reason to find another table or try to change seats. You want to have these players on your right, so you can play most pots against them in position.