Winning poker is only possible with good luck present

U

Ujimiflip

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I am of the strong belief that in poker your wins & losses are ONLY dependant on how your luck is for the day. I am also of the strong belief that skill means absolutely nothing if you're on a downswing, skill only works alongside a upswing.

On the MANY bad days/games,dry runs of cards are most common, then you finally get a decent hand and everyone either folds or worse, you raise, and completely miss the flop, bluff, get called, lose.

Sometimes you'll get games where it seems as if your running well, only to get your AA cracked on the bubble.

Sometimes you get nothing but decent starting hands but miss the flop every time and that maniac villan that keeps raising you with junk always hits the flop.

Every all in is a loser even though you'll had the best starting hand, but when you do win a all in is when your chips are tiny.

Then there is the shocking badbeats you never saw coming. Like flopping a full house but losing to quads on the turn,river.

River cards are your worst enemy.

Skill is useless in all the above...it simply doesn't exist in these times.

So winning at poker is only possible when good luck is present.

So what about the times that good luck present?

You miss click call and miracle a winning river card,

You flop the nuts and you're opponent/s with nothing just keeps calling.

Nearly every bluff works.

River cards are your best friend.

Every all in wins and the odd ones that lose don't damage all that much.

Seems there is always 2 players or more that hit the flop well but you always have them beat come end up.

It's real easy to think you're super skilled on the lucky times, but I'm convinced that it only appears that way because all the tricks and math work out on those lucky times.
 
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bodil19982

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Very true to life, I've had many such situations, work on yourself more and everything will work out.)
 
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Ujimiflip

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Very true to life, I've had many such situations, work on yourself more and everything will work out.)
I've been playing since 2008 on and off and on those odd occasions I'm running hot it only lasts for 10mins or so, throught the day on and off if I'm lucky. Never more.

Most times little bit up, alot down. And quite regularly unbelievable bad luck that lasts for days! I've watched and read alot of material, play tightish, cautiously on the flop,turn and river. Never tilt. Working on yourself doesn't increase good luck..and that's where its at. On bad days any decision is a losing one and you can't work on that.
 
YLAN

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Howdy bud. What's wrong? Don't you believe what u see? That's poker, Its either you will love it or hate it. It will always be a game of chance. If you rather prefer a game of skill, then play some sports. :)
Someone can comment that it will be better in the long run if you study hard. You've done that & so would you believe that wokey stuff? Much respect bud. What else to say to a long time player who have studied the game but best of luck buddy! :)
 
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U

Ujimiflip

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Howdy bud. What's wrong? Don't you believe what u see? That's poker, Its either you will love it or hate it. It will always be a game of chance. If you rather prefer a game of skill, then play some sports. :)
Someone can comment that it will be better in the long run if you study hard. You've done that & so would you believe that wokey stuff? Much respect bud. What else to say to a long time player who have studied the game but best of luck buddy! :)
Nothing wrong, just how I feel about the game, I'm learning to love it regardless of the outcome. So many people think it's a game of mostly skill but I don't agree so that's what I was trying to put into perspective. I guess if someone skilled was having a good run and someone unskilled was having a good run, the skilled player might come 1st where as the unskilled player 9th.. that's where the study pays off.
 
Claudiunm

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Hello, friend. I disagree with you. Skill is essential in Poker. But luck is also necessary. In fact, you need skill first and then count on luck. In an average tournament, you will play about 150 hands if you make it to the FT. You need skill to survive that. Without skill, there is no point in counting on luck. Luck will help you randomly throughout the tournament but it will not take you to the end. Skill will take you to the end. However, you will be playing against the luck of the other players at the table. So Poker is walking on a tightrope all the time.
 
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hajaehyun

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I definitely need it
You can't win with technology alone
 
Sunz of Beaches

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U are wrong.

During a downswing it's essential for a decent player to not go on tilt. Loosing the minimum is a skill in Poker. Making good folds despite the deck being against u over and over is not an easy task.
 
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fundiver199

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Poker is a long term game. Good and bad players will both have winning an losing sessions. But good players tend to lose less during the losing sessions and win more during the winning sessions, and this is, what makes them long term winners. If you have played since 2008, you cant blame a lack of results on bad luck. Its something else, whatever that is.
 
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Cerniera

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I am of the strong belief that in poker your wins & losses are ONLY dependant on how your luck is for the day. I am also of the strong belief that skill means absolutely nothing if you're on a downswing, skill only works alongside a upswing.

On the MANY bad days/games,dry runs of cards are most common, then you finally get a decent hand and everyone either folds or worse, you raise, and completely miss the flop, bluff, get called, lose.

Sometimes you'll get games where it seems as if your running well, only to get your AA cracked on the bubble.

Sometimes you get nothing but decent starting hands but miss the flop every time and that maniac villan that keeps raising you with junk always hits the flop.

Every all in is a loser even though you'll had the best starting hand, but when you do win a all in is when your chips are tiny.

Then there is the shocking badbeats you never saw coming. Like flopping a full house but losing to quads on the turn,river.

River cards are your worst enemy.

Skill is useless in all the above...it simply doesn't exist in these times.

So winning at poker is only possible when good luck is present.

So what about the times that good luck present?

You miss click call and miracle a winning river card,

You flop the nuts and you're opponent/s with nothing just keeps calling.

Nearly every bluff works.

River cards are your best friend.

Every all in wins and the odd ones that lose don't damage all that much.

Seems there is always 2 players or more that hit the flop well but you always have them beat come end up.

It's real easy to think you're super skilled on the lucky times, but I'm convinced that it only appears that way because all the tricks and math work out on those lucky times.
Luck and skrill win în 90 %
 
Mario7

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Well, this is not the first time people ask "skill or luck?". Not the last one for sure ;) After some consideration I came to the conclusion: short term it is skill + luck (or perhaps even luck + skill). Long term the skill decides.
 
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Ujimiflip

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Poker is a long term game. Good and bad players will both have winning an losing sessions. But good players tend to lose less during the losing sessions and win more during the winning sessions, and this is, what makes them long term winners. If you have played since 2008, you cant blame a lack of results on bad luck. Its something else, whatever that is.
Not sure where I blamed anything? Just my 2 sense on luck and skill. I'm quite happy with my play compared to what I see going on daily at the tables.
 
z4mu

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I confirm, luck is an important factor, but it depends on what type of tournament you are playing, in microlimits it depends a lot on the luck of your hands and everything can end quickly, in big tournaments and there is a little more complexity, knowing how to fold, knowing how to go there
 
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I think poker is 60% Skill and 40% luck....
 
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Not sure where I blamed anything? Just my 2 sense on luck and skill. I'm quite happy with my play compared to what I see going on daily at the tables.
Ok to be fair you did not directly complain about your results.
I am of the strong belief that in poker your wins & losses are ONLY dependant on how your luck is for the day. I am also of the strong belief that skill means absolutely nothing if you're on a downswing, skill only works alongside a upswing.
But even so I still strongly disagree with this statement. First of all their is no such thing as a "downswing" in poker, there is only variance. Its the nature of the game, that a winning player will have very few sessions, where they finish with their bankroll or life time results at a new all-time high. The vast majority of the time even a winning player will have won less, than they did at a certain point, and there is no way to objectively define, when they are down enough from this peak, that its a "downswing".

Moreover the majority of players are losing in the long run, because poker is a long term game, and others are winning in some games but losing in others. So in many cases losses are not due to bad luck but simply the long term trend. And the idea of "I am in a downswing" often become an excuse for not realising, that maybe I am actually not a winner in this game. So I need to either improve my skills, find a different game or play for fun within my budget.

Even worse is your statement, that skill means nothing, if you are in a downswing. Its the exact opposite. Its when the going gets rough, that the men are separated from the boys, and in this respect poker is no different from other areas of live. Its not the technical skills, that are most important in this aspect, but the mental skills. It takes a lot of mental stamina to continue to make the correct decisions again and again, even when they are not working or mean, that you need to fold a relatively strong hand.

And also to have enough self awareness to realise, when you should not be playing, because you are to tired or to tilted. Last night I wanted to play after dinner, as I often do. But I was so tired, that I almost feel asleep a few times and only woke up because of the beeps from the tables, that required my attention. It was not an enjoyable experience, and it also did not make my bankroll grow.
 
dreamer13

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Losing, even over a long period of time, does not necessarily mean you are a bad player.You can't influence variance. Well, that's not exactly true, since standard deviations can be caused by your playstyle. But if you consciously try to influence the deviations, there's a good chance you'll hurt your win rate.
 
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Robbie1583

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Poker i like to say is somewhere between chess and bingo .
But more and more i think its way more bingo then chess .
 
soy.KIRA

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I don't believe much in luck, because if you pay attention and play carefully, you can improve your games. Sometimes the system doesn't favor you, but you have to be willing to accept that!
 
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you need to be lucky to win one, but also skill to perform consistently
 
sandy358

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I am of the strong belief that in poker your wins & losses are ONLY dependant on how your luck is for the day. I am also of the strong belief that skill means absolutely nothing if you're on a downswing, skill only works alongside a upswing.
Uhmmm... it's not how it works? Your skill has nothing to do with upswings and downswings. Your skill determines if in the long term the sum of all your upswings and downswings will give net positive or net negative.
 
Pabloro10321

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I think the most important thing is to have good gameplay, this will help you stay ahead even in bad streaks, but it's true that in some hands a little luck doesn't hurt.
 
ninocabral

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Friend, look at my graphs and you will see that it is not luck. Today I won the GG freeroll. Poker is a game that you have to study a lot to be profitable. It is 70% skill and 30% luck. You have to remember that poker is a game of long-term profit.
 
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