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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$5 NL HE STT: TT defending to a 3-bet out of position
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[QUOTE="dallam, post: 6579009, member: 338743"] The overbet definitely made this one interesting, although it's worthy to examine both the conditions and the meaning of the overbet. The pre and flop game are pretty standard from both of you. However on Turn we can see a low, paired board with two doors of flush. Until this point you both invested under 25% of your stacks, which I don't think is that much, and you are not even pot-committed at this point. Which meaning you have both the chance here to get away and stick with the pot, and opp should know. Having said that, if Full-house want to make a max value here, it's almost a wasted-risky bet to do. So no 99, 55, 66 in the hand, the set itself with 6 is unlikely both the pre 3bet and this kind of outplay. So we are at least not drawing dead in this spot on the Turn. So what is this bet for? Is it for value or protection? And if opp does this, what hands we can actually calling with? These order of questions may giving a great answer. AA and KK both not needed this kind of bet at all, they are still strong enough just the mentioned combinations above, and again just a wasted opportunity leaning on the fact: If you're connected the board, you can only call this yet smaller pot off. And it was maybe small until now, but our tournament life is questionable that worth a call with AQs f.e. Meaning that this shove is actually making fold most of our combinations here. - QQ, JJ: They both pretty vulnerable here, if River is any A-K they may struggle, flush is bad, another card into the straight is bad, so maybe a quick laydown here --- We are 95% defeated here. - 88, 77: 2nd pairs with straight-draw, as much as there are folding stations to you to this bet, maybe protection --- We are 86% ahead of them. - 2 overs and flush draw: This combination can get rid of your 77 and 88, and probably can be in as a semi-bluff considering your check-check so far, maybe can get rid of some other hands like 1010 while opp having the equity to gamble it home somedays --- We are 68% ahead of them. Personally I'm leaning to see this bet as a protection rather than a value and definitely QQ and JJ can chose this line. Also the mentioned semi-bluffs can be likely to be putted in, starting from the 88,77 (and sometimes some AQs flush draw kind of hands). As long as you're not committed and it can be a gambling move to call cause its really a 50-50 here a worthy call; to see the overpockets or the lower pockets, folding is totally okay. Simply my guts telling on this one to call ( I totally forget to say 6 change nothing on the Turn, so 1/3 bet then 2x shove all-in something you may not see everyday's poker fields). Wondering your input on your own hand. :) [/QUOTE]
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$5 NL HE STT: TT defending to a 3-bet out of position
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