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$ NL HE MTT: Pair of 99, close to the bubble, to pay or not to pay?
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6800131, member: 397965"] If the Villain defend their BB by calling, pot will be around 5,5BB, and they only have 15BB left. Hero have them covered and can apply a lot of pressure postflop, which many players find pretty uncomfortable. So there is a lot of incentive for the Villain to not have a calling range, as the solver does, but end the hand preflop by either folding or jamming with their perfect rejam stack. And in that case their jamming range is most likely something like any pair, any suited ace, any suited broadway, AJ+, KQ. Against that range 99 have 56% equity, which is enough to call. AKo also has 56% equity, so if we are not calling with 99, then we should not be calling with AKo either. Which just goes to show, how tight raise-folding 99 in this spot actually is. Sure. If Hero play these specific games regularly, he might (should) have a feel for, what the player pool is doing, and that might justify an exploitable line. For me I would use HUD-data, and if they were something like 17/13 with a 5% 3-bet over 800 hands, thats the kind of player, where I will make an exploit and drastically overfold to their 3-bets in a spot like this. But if the stats are something like 23/19 with an 11% 3-bet, then I beat them into the pot, and if I end up losing most of my stack, that dont worry me a minute. In this particular spot two players were so short, that if this was the actual bubble, we would still have a decent chance of cashing even with a 3BB stack. [/QUOTE]
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$ NL HE MTT: Pair of 99, close to the bubble, to pay or not to pay?
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