Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

BuzzKillington · Oct 20, 2017

John A said:
Everyone is welcome at any time. So welcome.

And yes, there's unique strategies I've talked about over the years. I only talk about what works. and what I've used that has worked. Poker is a constantly evolving theory process, and you have to understand how most players are thinking about the game, and exploit the weaknesses in their theories/tactics.

Which is why we're going to continue to focus on the new BB cold calling fade, because it's highly exploitable. Like I've said in other threads, pros advocated for a long time to fold too many hands in the BB, now pros are advocating calling too many hands. This is how poker theory always develops, from one extreme to the other. We like to look at the balanced theory that can exploit both of these extremes.

Thank you! It's amazing how you're still around after all these years.

What's up with the cold calling? Why would professional poker players advocate cold calling so much? It doesn't make much sense to me. I get how every now and then the meta changes, but isn't cold calling too much bad?

I mean, I am still quite new to serious poker... but as I understand it, cold calling has the following flaws:

You have no initiative.
You can easily get raised unless you get to close the action.
You have literally no fold equity. P(villain=fold) = 0. Always.

So how can it be beneficial? Especially pre-flop? Whenever I try to do it when I want to setmine with a pocket pair cheaply, it tends to backfire. So I just end up raising my pocket pairs instead. I believe it was Figaroo2 who explained this perfectly in another thread (why it makes setmining more profitable).

BuzzKillington · Oct 20, 2017

So, if what you're saying is true, then does this mean that the "good old" VPIP/PFR ratio is no longer as reliable as it was before to estimate who is a fish and who isn't? If so, then what kind of statistics do we need to know what kind of player we're dealing with, in order to be able to exploit their specific weaknesses?

Figaroo2 · Oct 20, 2017

Turn play, getting value with the nuts

Are you betting the turn and if so how much? MP1 is aggro and the BB is a fish

Pacific, $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $25.20 (84 bb)
BB: $18 (60 bb)VPIP: 63, PFR: 29, 3B: 0, AF: 2.5, Hands: 24
Hero (UTG+2): $30 (100 bb)
MP1: $31 (103.3 bb)VPIP: 19, PFR: 12, 3B: 14, AF: 4.8, Hands: 85
MP2: $34.85 (116.2 bb)
MP3: $30.51 (101.7 bb)
CO: $27.14 (90.5 bb)
BTN: $30 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A

J

Hero raises to $0.90, MP1 calls $0.90, 2 folds, CO calls $0.90, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.75) 7

Q

8

(4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.87, MP1 calls $1.87, CO folds, BB calls $1.87

Turn: ($9.36) 9

(3 players)
BB checks,
Hero?

BuzzKillington · Oct 20, 2017

I would be tempted to bet at least half the pot (to increase the chance of being called). But then again, checking could induce a bluff on the river.

Is this reasonable?

Edit: Oh, you said he was aggressive. In that case, yeah. Maybe he would re-raise on the turn after a 1/2 pot bet? This would be great, since you know you have the best hand, but at the same time you could be perceived as just c-betting the minimum reasonable amount to bluff an opponent off the pot without committing yourself too much to the pot?

Figaroo2 · Oct 23, 2017

BuzzKillington said:
Thank you! It's amazing how you're still around after all these years.

What's up with the cold calling? Why would professional poker players advocate cold calling so much? It doesn't make much sense to me. I get how every now and then the meta changes, but isn't cold calling too much bad?

I mean, I am still quite new to serious poker... but as I understand it, cold calling has the following flaws:

You have no initiative.

You can easily get raised unless you get to close the action.

You have literally no fold equity. P(villain=fold) = 0. Always.

So how can it be beneficial? Especially pre-flop? Whenever I try to do it when I want to setmine with a pocket pair cheaply, it tends to backfire. So I just end up raising my pocket pairs instead. I believe it was Figaroo2 who explained this perfectly in another thread (why it makes setmining more profitable).

Lol....yeah amazing John still being around......fancy that.
(And thanks be for that)

You are correct that flat calling in the blinds isn't a great tactic.

Guys like Polk are pushing some daft calling and 3betting ranges from the blinds. I dont mind that, if you want to have 64s in your polarized 3bet range from the blinds thats fine with me.
I think the current trend re calling in the blinds is washing over from the MTT scene where everyone is opening wider and earlier to steal the blinds. I haven't particularly noted steal rates going up massively in cash games. If i am the blinds facing an obvious stealer they cant do much when faced by a raise by a tight player either preflop, flop or by us leading out large on the turn.
My advice is to read John's book play for a while and then read it again.

John A · Oct 24, 2017

BuzzKillington said:
Thank you! It's amazing how you're still around after all these years.

What's up with the cold calling? Why would professional poker players advocate cold calling so much? It doesn't make much sense to me. I get how every now and then the meta changes, but isn't cold calling too much bad?

I mean, I am still quite new to serious poker... but as I understand it, cold calling has the following flaws:

You have no initiative.

You can easily get raised unless you get to close the action.

You have literally no fold equity. P(villain=fold) = 0. Always.

So how can it be beneficial? Especially pre-flop? Whenever I try to do it when I want to setmine with a pocket pair cheaply, it tends to backfire. So I just end up raising my pocket pairs instead. I believe it was Figaroo2 who explained this perfectly in another thread (why it makes setmining more profitable).

Well, really good players (and I mean world class players when I say good) can get away w/ cold calling because they understand the situation perfectly, and can bluff in the correct spots consistently, and they know how to extract thin value in the right spots. Most players can do this sometimes, but not EVERY time.

So what tends to happen is X top world class player advocates Y strategy. In the case of cold calling in the BB, it's justified as I'm getting 2.5:1 or whatever on a call, and my hand has better equity than that, so I call.

Well, in no-limit poker, there's much more to consider than your immediate pot odds. You're not playing limit poker. Not to mention, those odds only count at showdown. Your real pot odds to the flop are much worse than that AND your positional disadvantage also reduces you realized equity.

Now for X pro, this is a legit strategy, and more than likely he's fitting it into a bigger overall game strategy. But taken out of context w/ just this situation to consider, it's not really a +EV play imho.

But this is currently all the rage right now. That's why you're going to see more and more people doing this, and that's why I like to talk about it in here so you guys will understand how to counter this strategy. I'll throw out a couple of things for example.

If you're seeing your opponent cold calling (and they are a normal reg in your game) w/ hands like K3s, Q7s etc... in the BB to your opens, then the adjustment is simple.

1) You pound them on the flop and turn. You increase your flop c-bet sizing and turn sizing to make them pay for their weak holdings. They'll flop a lot of 3x and 7x in the above example, and they'll have a lot of tough turn decisions. Also when you both make top pair, yours will be better most of the time and they will pay off lighter in these spots.

What I started doing is just doing my normal c-betting sizing from the first 2 opening positions (even when they CC from the BB), and a much larger sizing from CO/BTN. This isn't static, but the point is, we both have weaker ranges, who will flinch first. I have position, you're going to have to make bigger tough decision w/o knowing what I'm going to do on the turn and river.

2) You increase your pre-flop size, and make them fold more or have to play bigger pots OOP vs. you.

Just simple adjustments you need to make when you notice what your opponents CC range is in the BB. This also generally reduces 3-bets as well (from most regs, not all). You'll lose more when you fold of course, but that will balance out if you're not being 3-bet as much.

BuzzKillington · Oct 24, 2017

Ah. I see. I will keep an eye out for those people and will try to apply both (1) and (2) when I am IP. How would you increase your bet size for this kind of situation when IP heads-up against a cold calling fanatic? For example, say my standard c-bet against most opponents would be 1/2 or 60% of the pot, then what would be a reasonable increment? And if this depends, on what kind of things would it depend other than position and the fact that your opponent cold calls with weak holdings? Would an increment from 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot and from 60% to a 3/4 bet make sense? Or would you recommend more?

John A · Oct 24, 2017

BuzzKillington said:
Ah. I see. I will keep an eye out for those people and will try to apply both (1) and (2) when I am IP. How would you increase your bet size for this kind of situation when IP heads-up against a cold calling fanatic? For example, say my standard c-bet against most opponents would be 1/2 or 60% of the pot, then what would be a reasonable increment? And if this depends, on what kind of things would it depend other than position and the fact that your opponent cold calls with weak holdings? Would an increment from 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot and from 60% to a 3/4 bet make sense? Or would you recommend more?

Some things depend on board texture, how hard you're hitting the board, but in general something more in the 3/4th-full pot range. And something like 65%-80% on the turn.

John A · Oct 24, 2017

Figaroo2 said:
Are you betting the turn and if so how much? MP1 is aggro and the BB is a fish

Pacific, $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $25.20 (84 bb)
BB: $18 (60 bb)VPIP: 63, PFR: 29, 3B: 0, AF: 2.5, Hands: 24
Hero (UTG+2): $30 (100 bb)
MP1: $31 (103.3 bb)VPIP: 19, PFR: 12, 3B: 14, AF: 4.8, Hands: 85
MP2: $34.85 (116.2 bb)
MP3: $30.51 (101.7 bb)
CO: $27.14 (90.5 bb)
BTN: $30 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A

J

Hero raises to $0.90, MP1 calls $0.90, 2 folds, CO calls $0.90, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.75) 7

Q

8

(4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.87, MP1 calls $1.87, CO folds, BB calls $1.87

Turn: ($9.36) 9

(3 players)
BB checks,
Hero?

Betting the flop larger, and I think this is a trick question on the turn right? Bet $6.9 and shove the river.

Figaroo2 · Oct 24, 2017

I bet $7 and he insta folded, clearly he didn't have much, obviously I'm betting for value but it seems sort of so obvious I'm betting for value here with this sizing.
I was thinking as we smash the board and have the Ace of hearts whether;
A) we bet around 40-50% pot again to keep him calling if he has the Kh and or to induce a spazz bluff
or
B) Would you consider checking and letting a guy with this sort of AF take a couple of stabs. This sort of AF usually leap all over weak looking turn checks.
I know we risk losing value against sets and JT but those hands might get it in on the end anyway assuming no more hearts.

Figaroo2 · Oct 24, 2017

John I really like your explanation re the BB calling thing. Really clear and well written.

I decided to play here as I was over 200bb deep with this guy. I'm still unsure what's the best play on the river here. I was playing a fast poker session trying to work on aggression.
1st hand against villain, no reads.

poker stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players ZOOM

SB: $9.95 (199 bb)
Hero (BB): $15.97 (319.4 bb)
UTG: $15.56 (311.2 bb)
MP: $6.56 (131.2 bb)
CO: $11.18 (223.6 bb)
BTN: $10.90 (218 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3

2

3 folds, BTN raises to $0.10, SB folds, Hero calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.22) 7

9

4

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.70, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.62) 5

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.90, BTN calls $0.90
I was intending to bluff most rivers here whether I got there or not.

River: ($3.42) 8

(2 players)
Hero?
It's a pretty scary board but the more I looked at it, the more my hand seems to look exactly what it is, a whiffed spade draw and I started to hesitate but then I thought you know I have the 6s here a lot as well.
I mean we have the nut low, zero chance so maths of poker we need to bet right?
So what do we think of it as a bluff spot and if you are going to pull the trigger what is the best sizing?

John A · Oct 26, 2017

Figaroo2 said:
John I really like your explanation re the BB calling thing. Really clear and well written.

I decided to play here as I was over 200bb deep with this guy. I'm still unsure what's the best play on the river here. I was playing a fast poker session trying to work on aggression.
1st hand against villain, no reads.

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players ZOOM

SB: $9.95 (199 bb)
Hero (BB): $15.97 (319.4 bb)
UTG: $15.56 (311.2 bb)
MP: $6.56 (131.2 bb)
CO: $11.18 (223.6 bb)
BTN: $10.90 (218 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3

2

3 folds, BTN raises to $0.10, SB folds, Hero calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.22) 7

9

4

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.70, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.62) 5

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.90, BTN calls $0.90
I was intending to bluff most rivers here whether I got there or not.

River: ($3.42) 8

(2 players)
Hero?
It's a pretty scary board but the more I looked at it, the more my hand seems to look exactly what it is, a whiffed spade draw and I started to hesitate but then I thought you know I have the 6s here a lot as well.
I mean we have the nut low, zero chance so maths of poker we need to bet right?
So what do we think of it as a bluff spot and if you are going to pull the trigger what is the best sizing?

Yeah, so the good news is he won't have a 6 very often obviously and you can rep the 6. The bad news is he'll have two pair here a lot, and some of your range is whiffed spades. So in these spots I size my bets depending on how I think my villain is thinking about the game. The more aggro and decent they are as a reg, I bet more in a modest value/bluff range (2.2ish). Reason being is that typically in these spots vs more aggressive opponents, betting larger to get folds actually tends to get more calls (get the suspicious genes working). So whether I bet 2.2 or 3.2 it won't really change their calling range. I'm trying to get strong top pairs and over pairs to fold. Two pair, sets vs this kind of opponent (although doubt he has a set), won't fold very often.

Against a player that isn't that good or an average / bad reg, I'm betting closer to 3, because I can get some of their over pair range and some of the bottom of their 2 pair range to fold (not always), and strong top pair that had some draws (T9, A9, Jh9h, etc...).

That's basically how I approach it.

Alucard · Oct 28, 2017

John, I've been struggling a bit in multiway pots.
How to proceed with TP,MP & when facing raise etc.
I haven't gotten in to your book much. Is there something included about this?
Or some general advice you could give me??

John A · Oct 30, 2017

Alucard said:
John, I've been struggling a bit in multiway pots.
How to proceed with TP,MP & when facing raise etc.
I haven't gotten in to your book much. Is there something included about this?
Or some general advice you could give me??

Yes, there's content about this in polished poker.

General advice is always tough, but you want to look to check some of your TP hands on dry boards, and lean towards betting them on wet boards. Depending on how aggressive and how wet the board will connect w/ your opponents range, sometimes c/cing on wet middle connected boards against aggro opponents OOP can be good as well. But like everything, it depends.

Calling raises w/ TP just depends on your position, your opponents aggression, and what, if any backdoor hands you have to make an even better hand. Stack depth is important to obviously.

Post some hands where you weren't sure what to do about a raise or how to play TP.

Figaroo2 · Oct 30, 2017

: Hero is BB with 3

2

3 folds, BTN raises to $0.10, SB folds, Hero calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.22) 7

9

4

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.70, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.62) 5

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.90, BTN calls $0.90
I was intending to bluff most rivers here whether I got there or not.

River: ($3.42) 8

(2 players)
Hero?

John A said:
Yeah, so the good news is he won't have a 6 very often obviously and you can rep the 6. The bad news is he'll have two pair here a lot, and some of your range is whiffed spades. So in these spots I size my bets depending on how I think my villain is thinking about the game. The more aggro and decent they are as a reg, I bet more in a modest value/bluff range (2.2ish). Reason being is that typically in these spots vs more aggressive opponents, betting larger to get folds actually tends to get more calls (get the suspicious genes working). So whether I bet 2.2 or 3.2 it won't really change their calling range. I'm trying to get strong top pairs and over pairs to fold. Two pair, sets vs this kind of opponent (although doubt he has a set), won't fold very often.

Against a player that isn't that good or an average / bad reg, I'm betting closer to 3, because I can get some of their over pair range and some of the bottom of their 2 pair range to fold (not always), and strong top pair that had some draws (T9, A9, Jh9h, etc...).

That's basically how I approach it.

I bet $2.80 and he snap called with AA.

John A · Oct 31, 2017

Figaroo2 said:
I bet $2.80 and he snap called with AA.

Yeah, could have saved yourself .60

A for effort.

Alucard · Oct 31, 2017

I will post my 5NL zoom graphs & the positional reports till now. Please let me know if there are any leaks I should fix or etc... Also let me know if you need anything else. As always thanks for your help.

Complete 5NL 6max zoom pokerstars graph & the positional report

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6yMSY4ZJFLsR3h2SVlmaHhkdk0

The graph & report since 25th of October which was the start of the upswing

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6yMSY4ZJFLsMGxQZWhwdkdfMGM

John A · Nov 1, 2017

Alucard said:
I will post my 5NL zoom graphs & the positional reports till now. Please let me know if there are any leaks I should fix or etc... Also let me know if you need anything else. As always thanks for your help.

Complete 5NL 6max zoom Pokerstars graph & the positional report

So before I answer, what are the things that stand out for you most, and why do you think they made a difference?

Alucard · Nov 2, 2017

John A said:
So before I answer, what are the things that stand out for you most, and why do you think they made a difference?

Well, I think after I moved to 5NL I think I lacked a certain kind of motivation to proceed futher & was having breakeven+ huge swingy sessions.
So then I started my new thread & I think it stands out a lot.
With that I think I became playing with more discipline with more motivation to achieve a target.
While doing that I very much fixed my tilt problem that makes me play a lot aggressive with bad hands
I also toned down my bluffing. Specially pure bluffs that could become very expensive.
Now I think I choose the right spots to attack & TID.
And also I'm playing very relaxed without frustration/fatigue & tension.
I'm playing around 1k hands per session in zoom with around 1-1.5 hours per session.
I have been 2 tabling zoom until now & moved on to 3 tables after I reached a BR goal & it went fine.

So while playing I think I'm making more rational decisions, getting value where value, giving up hands where I know I'm lost & bluffing in suitable spots.
Oh and also I'm running very much so good in preflop all ins as you can see.
Positional-wise I've stopped flatting from SB completely got very tight & started 3betting my entire continuation range. So the AF from there should be very high. Also opening, flatting & 3betting a lot more that I used to from BTN & CO as Figaroo told me to do. And I steal a lot as well from BTN & SB. You can get away with it in zoom games cause people don't notice it much except for hud stats.

I think I've noted down everything in my thread.
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/alucards-cash-journal-5nl-10nl-350923/

BuzzKillington · Nov 3, 2017

BTW, John, in your book you describe a measure called the "Tension Count". It's interesting, because it confirms my intuition about certain situations, where I have raised a few hands in a row, and then feel like I should be more inclined to fold the next hand, to reduce the tension, to avoid being called down on the weaker end of my range.

However, I was wondering how you came up with the specific numbers? To be honest, it seems somewhat arbitrary. Is there no way to make this a little more objective? I was thinking about calculating the numbers based on Bayesian probabilities.

Alucard · Nov 6, 2017

Is shoving on the flop an EV+ play here? Could you explain a bit. Thanks!!

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 176.8 BB
SB: 146.2 BB (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 11.44, 3Bet Preflop: 9.47, Hands: 241)
BB: 117 BB (VPIP: 19.75, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 81)
UTG: 121.8 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (MP): 138.4 BB
CO: 267 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kh As
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 5 BB, fold, BB calls 4 BB, Hero raises to 24 BB, BTN calls 19 BB, fold

Flop : (53.4 BB, 2 players) 6h 5c 9h
Hero bets 32 BB, BTN raises to 152.8 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 112.6 BB

Figaroo2 · Nov 7, 2017

John. I asked Alucard to post that AK hand as i thought you did an ev analysis piece on shoving the flop with AK when oop when your 4 bet is flatted. It would be great if you could dig it out thanks.

John A · Nov 7, 2017

Alucard said:
Well, I think after I moved to 5NL I think I lacked a certain kind of motivation to proceed futher & was having breakeven+ huge swingy sessions.
So then I started my new thread & I think it stands out a lot.
With that I think I became playing with more discipline with more motivation to achieve a target.
While doing that I very much fixed my tilt problem that makes me play a lot aggressive with bad hands
I also toned down my bluffing. Specially pure bluffs that could become very expensive.
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/alucards-cash-journal-5nl-10nl-350923/

Things that stood out for me in your stats were your 3-bet numbers were up, your aggression was up, and it looked like it was more in alignment w/ positionally where it should be. It's difficult to speak about the tilt or whether you were giving up, value betting and bluffing in the right spots just from those stats, but they do look better overall.

GREAT JOB!

John A · Nov 7, 2017

BuzzKillington said:
BTW, John, in your book you describe a measure called the "Tension Count". It's interesting, because it confirms my intuition about certain situations, where I have raised a few hands in a row, and then feel like I should be more inclined to fold the next hand, to reduce the tension, to avoid being called down on the weaker end of my range.

However, I was wondering how you came up with the specific numbers? To be honest, it seems somewhat arbitrary. Is there no way to make this a little more objective? I was thinking about calculating the numbers based on Bayesian probabilities.

I came up w/ the numbers after writing down when I thought reactions were going to happen after being aggressive, and tracking those over long periods of time. That initial calc is somewhat subjective of course. There's way too many things happening in holdem to come up w/ a perfect calc here. Like I said, this should be used as a general guideline and should just be a part of the decision making process, but it shouldn't be used as the final word.

If you can come up w/ a better calculation here, please share. Everything is revisible.

John A · Nov 7, 2017

Alucard said:
Is shoving on the flop an EV+ play here? Could you explain a bit. Thanks!!

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 176.8 BB
SB: 146.2 BB (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 11.44, 3Bet Preflop: 9.47, Hands: 241)
BB: 117 BB (VPIP: 19.75, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 81)
UTG: 121.8 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (MP): 138.4 BB
CO: 267 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kh As
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 5 BB, fold, BB calls 4 BB, Hero raises to 24 BB, BTN calls 19 BB, fold

Flop : (53.4 BB, 2 players) 6h 5c 9h
Hero bets 32 BB, BTN raises to 152.8 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 112.6 BB

Well, this isn't a "normal" 4-bet called spot. But that being said, you're still always going to be close to coin flop to slightly ahead of someone's calling range this deep. The depth of the stack increases your equity since your opponents calling range w/ this pre-flop action will be wider. Which in this case, would connect w/ the flop slightly more, but even still you're still going to be around 50-55% equity. So any folds you can get on the flop increase your expected value.

It's a high variance play, but shoving is still +EV. I prefer doing it when you're closer to 100bbs though just for tilt/variance reasons.

Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

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