DaReKa
Rock Star
Silver Level
I think I could bet on most of the higher level fights with 70%+ accuracy, so yeah, pretty easy to bet on. Bendo would be one of the harder people to bet on since he keeps getting really close decision victories. I would've bet on Pettis if I did bet though. Glad Benson finally got dethroned.
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bernotas22
Legend
Silver Level
i actually bet only on poirier cause i was very unsure who would win main event! i was wanting someone to push me to bet on pettis nobody did so i just didin't bet! and poirier i knew was very good so i was comfortable betting on him, yeah i agree i think its easy to bet on, glad benson lost cause i do not like his style pettis deserved the belt great champ
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
The problem is that a lot of those higher level fights have huge favourites that don't pay very much - Jon Jones this weekend, for example, is only paying something like $1.14 to win. So picking around 70-80% right is all well and good, but it might not be enough to show a profit.
I'm doing a bit of testing at the moment to see if I want to get back into sports betting or not (tried it briefly last year and was spectacularly unsuccessful), UFC is one of the sports I'm looking into. My picks have been a pretty horrible 6/16 since mid-July and if I'd been betting them I'd be down about 4.5 units.
If I were betting this weekend it'd be on the Mitrione/Schaub fight to end by KO. Might consider a value bet on Pat Healy if he's paying high enough too, the fight doesn't have odds out with our local sportsbooks yet.
Other than that I think Jones will almost certainly retain the title but, as discussed above, he's not really paying enough for there to be value in betting on him. Ditto for Barao.
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bernotas22
Legend
Silver Level
would not bet on pat healy, hes fighting a young undefeated russian 20-0 and 4-0 in the ufc so its the opposite of a value bet plus the odds should actually be making healy even a bigger underdog i would be very surprised if healy wins, i think the more interesting questions are how much rounds you think gustaffson can last v jones
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
Healy is on a seven-fight win streak of his own though (remembering he beat Jim Miller before he was stupid enough to test positive for marijuana).
Local sportsbooks have listed his fight now, they've got Healy paying $2.80. Prob not quite enough to make it worthwhile. Don't get me wrong, I don't necessarily think Healy is favourite to win the fight or anything, but all sorts of whacky stuff can happen in this sport, especially if they end up leaving it in the judges' hands.
(FWIW I had the same idea in the Bader/Tiexiera fight last week, but in that case Bader was paying a bit over $4 and I don't think Tiexiera is anywhere near as good as people make him out to be...)
As for Jones-Gustaffson my pick would be Jones finishes it before the end of the third round.
Local sportsbooks have listed his fight now, they've got Healy paying $2.80. Prob not quite enough to make it worthwhile. Don't get me wrong, I don't necessarily think Healy is favourite to win the fight or anything, but all sorts of whacky stuff can happen in this sport, especially if they end up leaving it in the judges' hands.
(FWIW I had the same idea in the Bader/Tiexiera fight last week, but in that case Bader was paying a bit over $4 and I don't think Tiexiera is anywhere near as good as people make him out to be...)
As for Jones-Gustaffson my pick would be Jones finishes it before the end of the third round.
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bernotas22
Legend
Silver Level
its decent value to go less than 3 rounds for jones v gustaffson, i do see your point about healy but he is a submission guy and the russian guy is a sambo fighter so i can't see him being that effective but maybe his experience will be enough to win you never know i just think go with your gut and see if your instinct pays off, better to bet quality then quantity cause with the unpredictability you could be losing easier with more picks and more picks usually means less quality