All In Decision!

F Paulsson · Mar 2, 2007

Lana_Faith said:
Of the rest of the possible hands, AKs, AKo, AQs, and the other KK, are coinflips.... they could go either way.

That's a weird looking coin, in that case.

KK is > 2:1 favorite over any A-x hand that isn't specifically AA.

Lana_Faith · Mar 2, 2007

F Paulsson said:
That's a weird looking coin, in that case.

KK is > 2:1 favorite over any A-x hand that isn't specifically AA.

It IS a wierd looking coin because we're not facing one villain but two. Assuming both have at least one A, which I think is a fair assumption, the coin has three sides, and therefore this is NOT 2:1 odds...

F Paulsson · Mar 2, 2007

Lana_Faith said:
It IS a wierd looking coin because we're not facing one villain but two. Assuming both have at least one A, which I think is a fair assumption, the coin has three sides, and therefore this is NOT 2:1 odds...

No, in that case we're 4:1 (80%) to win, not 2:1 (67%), unless one of them has specifically AA.

Edit: Actually, no, we're still just about 2:1. I checked with PokerStove, and we've gone up from 67% to win to just above 70%.

Lana_Faith · Mar 2, 2007

Duh I just thought about what I said and of course you're right... in this specific case, any overcard would have to be the A, which means that with two A's in play, they're drawing semi-dead to one another.

I bow to your superior intellect, good sir knight.

However, I do think my base argument has some validity. I think many times players, even GOOD players will memorize statistics like you just quoted, but forget that the odds change, and sometimes drastically when faced with a three-way or more-way pot.

Anyhow, yes you're right and I'm wrong on this one.

baystate123 · Mar 2, 2007

"Call" with a capital C. You're not a favorite to win against 2 others both comming over the top like that. But to reiterate, the money commands it. Personally, the only time I'd consider folding would be if I was right on the bubble and I do see at least 1 other player in the tourney that I had 2-1 in chips there. Even then I'd call 80% of the time.

rivertapped · Mar 2, 2007

You've got such a short stack I suppose you call. If you were a large stack and one of the others had you covered, maybe you could fold.

In this situation tho, call and hope to win the thing. I don't like folding here and trying to sneak into the money for a small cash.

Welly · Mar 3, 2007

It obviously goes without saying what you should do. However here is something more interesting to ponder...

A) Would you call if you knew the opponents both had AA ?

B) Would you call if 'Scan Rautli' had also entered the pot and you knew he had 22?

(NB take into account cash vs tournament play)

Lana_Faith · Mar 3, 2007

Welly said:
A) Would you call if you knew the opponents both had AA ?

Absolutely. At that point there's no chance for them to better their hand, whereas I have 5 cards coming, any one of which might be that killer third K.

F Paulsson · Mar 3, 2007

Pot's just a wee bit too small to justify calling, even if we know they both have AA. If we had them all covered, it would be just about break-even, but I think KKvAAvAA is ~20% to win, and we're not quite getting 4:1 pot odds.

p215j · Mar 4, 2007

Hmm, interesting scenario.

IMHO you can either call here or simply stop playing poker. Period.

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All In Decision!

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