Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value (Day 5 Course Discussion)

[FF2586]

Hey!

Things are getting prettyyy serious!

I very much understood the pot odds concept and I am trying to understand the EV part, I even read the EV article in CC (link in the book) and got fascinated by the process of calculationg this "famous" expected value. But still, this is hard to apply to my game, need much more understanding and a lot of dedication. Will reevaluate once I finish the book

At least now I know how to calculate the EV of a river call or turn shove. I also refreshed my pot odd knowledge!

Thanks

gl gl gl

 

[Debi]

You need to watch this video at least two time.
it's not simple to calculate the percentage .
i think next courses will help to include the concept of pot odds and EV in realtime play because you are not going to put a calculator next to you.
i think that will work better with practice.

:icon_scra

This is definitely one to come back to and watch again!

 

[karmakoumas]

This is definitely one to come back to and watch again!

hhhhhh perfect shot

i watched the video 3 times and finally understand the pourcentage.
Now before every bet i watch the stack the pot it make me feel more confortable in table.
i really feel my self upgrate from day to another.

:tee:

 

[Phoenix Wright]

I knew about pot odds and this fundamental stuff before, but I still enjoy hearing the refresher: this is quality content and I am glad to be a part of this course

 

[Polytarp]

...It's a tough concept at first, but you'll definitely understand it well with a little time and practice.

...and by paying table tuition.

I'm playing the $2 Party Poker SNG's and transitioning into the $5 games..(double or nothing and PKO's mainly) and this section must be instinctive but there seems to be more "at play."

My question(s) concern a reference I made regarding Arrow and Nakumura and to a degree Prisoner's dilemma where "coalitions" seem to form relative to stacks and expected bet sizes from the chip leaders (card ranges are irrelevant to the chip leaders on the attack). I've noticed that some bets by the leaders are tailored to the aggression level of their intended victim. Of the spectrum of bet ranges initiated by the leaders can I:

1. Quantitatively assess the aggression factor of a target via bet sizing, number of times the target was engaged or not AND would this give a quantitative "read" on the leaders? When I see more than one larger chip stack falling into a certain "bet consensus" during early and mid game (assuming the larger stacks are taking odds and EV into account since they aren't winning by luck alone), can PT4 detect and validate this perception?

2. In the late game, it seems that smaller stacks are more willing to attack larger stacks as an ensemble especially when a weakness is perceived..ie. a large chip loss whatever the reason and card range reads seem more important to everyone again. I've put out larger bets against mid-range aggressive players with smaller stacks (regardless of pot odds and EV) just to entice more aggressive players to tangle with one another and wipe each other out.
Is this a valid trade-off?

I've been on the giving and receiving end of being a chip bully and seething victim in the above mentioned game structures. Are the above points valid or am I imagining things. If these points are valid then at what stake level, from low moving upwards, do these tactics become invalid?
In a few games, certain chip bullies would raise the blinds but only call mine and other times (especially after some aggressive re-raising and winning sporadic hands) the table would fold around to me...is everyone ignoring pot odds and EV or is it a coalition/emotional thing that is occurring where self-preservation has taken hold because of who was taken out and how?
When I've been knocked out of a game should I continue to observe it to see if there is any distinctive response to my absence? Other than being involved in a Replay game on Poker Stars is there any other way to record games (or find them on other sites) with cards exposed after I've been knocked out? I'm curious to see if there is any detectable transition in game play on the part of the remaining players relative to my being there and not everything else being equal.

 

[Collin Moshman]

Poly, game theory becomes much more important at the higher stakes, but can be applied lower too. We talk about it some in the context of unpredictability and agree with the points you're making here -- very useful topic in poker.

 

[carmenzu]

Thank you very much for the book, there are many things to learn, I did not make estimates of the pot odds. I will make a resolution to improve that point.


.

 

[Herkstwin]

Pot odds took me some time to learn over my poker 'career'. Chapter/Day 5 provided a clear set of examples that helped me better understand. What I really liked were the three questions: Wrong Question / Better Question / Best Question. I have been asking the wrong question! Damn! Now I will do better.

It also came as a surprise that the EV from a decision is based on the long run profitability of the call/bet. This concept will take some review on my part, but I can see it having a much bigger impact on my poker bankroll going forward.

I am only on DAY 5, and this course is amazing.

 

[Showbizin]

Day 5

Hello! Thanks for the lesson!

First of all, I would like to tell you my opinion regards to Hand 5-1 in ebook. I think I would not call that all-in. Answering the best question: "Do I have at least the 26% or so equity?" - my answer is: "No, I don't". If we imagine that Villain have any pair on flop and after that he shoves it means that we have just 6 outs and about 24% equity on both streets.

On the other hand we have a big stack much bigger than Villain has and we could call to see what his cards is. I think we could likely find a gutshot with 76s / 65s poket.

Frankly speaking I failed last quizz question whether to call or not. I just hurried up because had not enough time to end a lesson so didn't think about ranges and actions Villain made on preflop and so on. So I made a mistake and feel disappointed.

As for EV it seems like I understood almost nothing about EV except for what EV is I'll read the article about EV and hope I understand everything in future sections.

 

[NWPatriot]

I have an EV question - i am going around in circles in my head on this.

If we have a $150 chip pot, and we calculate a scenario where we have $116EV in this pot when we bet $300.

Now I want to compare this EV for a $500 bet. My EV is better at $121EV now, but I had to invest $200 more to get there.

It doesn't feel like this is a good ROI. Yes, they are all positive numbers and they are all greater than 1/2 the pot, but something tells me there should be another way to assess this. I am thinking about a "delta EV per $ bet" value, but am i taking this too far?

Like I said, I am sort of chasing my tail - anyone have any thoughts?

Good luck, stay healthy and God bless.

 

[Coinuss]

I understand how to calculate the pot odds, but I do not use it in my game. I do not understand the right moment to use the concept of pot odds.
Are pot odds good for overbets? Does overbet mean to me, I need a strong hand, and I need coinflip to win, to make a call profitable?

 

[Collin Moshman]

Hello! Thanks for the lesson!

First of all, I would like to tell you my opinion regards to Hand 5-1 in ebook. I think I would not call that all-in. Answering the best question: "Do I have at least the 26% or so equity?" - my answer is: "No, I don't". If we imagine that Villain have any pair on flop and after that he shoves it means that we have just 6 outs and about 24% equity on both streets.

On the other hand we have a big stack much bigger than Villain has and we could call to see what his cards is. I think we could likely find a gutshot with 76s / 65s poket.

Frankly speaking I failed last quizz question whether to call or not. I just hurried up because had not enough time to end a lesson so didn't think about ranges and actions Villain made on preflop and so on. So I made a mistake and feel disappointed.

As for EV it seems like I understood almost nothing about EV except for what EV is I'll read the article about EV and hope I understand everything in future sections.

The important thing is that you understand EV and the concepts. If you put your opponent on a different range and come to a different conclusion, that's good so long as you use the right process

I have an EV question - i am going around in circles in my head on this.

If we have a $150 chip pot, and we calculate a scenario where we have $116EV in this pot when we bet $300.

Now I want to compare this EV for a $500 bet. My EV is better at $121EV now, but I had to invest $200 more to get there.

It doesn't feel like this is a good ROI. Yes, they are all positive numbers and they are all greater than 1/2 the pot, but something tells me there should be another way to assess this. I am thinking about a "delta EV per $ bet" value, but am i taking this too far?

Like I said, I am sort of chasing my tail - anyone have any thoughts?

Good luck, stay healthy and God bless.

+EV doesn't mean best, it just means better than folding. Pick the highest EV option. As for which bet size works best, we need more info -- probability of our opponent folding to each, probability they call and we win or lose, what happens when raised, etc. So it's complicated to calculate EVs sometimes but you're asking the right questions!

I understand how to calculate the pot odds, but I do not use it in my game. I do not understand the right moment to use the concept of pot odds.
Are pot odds good for overbets? Does overbet mean to me, I need a strong hand, and I need coinflip to win, to make a call profitable?

Good question -- you would generally not use the concept of pot odds for bet-sizing.

 

[NWPatriot]

Good question -- you would generally not use the concept of pot odds for bet-sizing.

Can you explain what you mean a little bit more? In order to calculate MDF or Alpha (required minimum fold rate) it all starts with the pot and the bet size. The MDF is all about the pot odds our opponent will be getting. Maybe it is just semantics.

Thanks

 

[Showbizin]

Hi Collin! I have one more question about pot odds.

Before I started the course I've read Roy Rounder's book "Poker Math Made Easy". It's told that we should count a chance to win using our outs and call every street using these chances.

Should we use this concept? If we should, will we discuss this concept more in future sections?

Thanks!

 

[Coinuss]

Can you explain what you mean a little bit more? In order to calculate MDF or Alpha (required minimum fold rate) it all starts with the pot and the bet size. The MDF is all about the pot odds our opponent will be getting. Maybe it is just semantics.

Thanks

MDF is some new for me. I'll read more about it. Thanks!

 

[Mateo]

A very nice refresher for pot odds - put very clearly and makes a lot of sense (maybe I should start paying attention to these more...) I like the way the bluff spot is also translated to EV - something I hadn't considered in depth before. Although I guess it is a lot harder to estimate your EV from a bluff.

 

[Collin Moshman]

Can you explain what you mean a little bit more? In order to calculate MDF or Alpha (required minimum fold rate) it all starts with the pot and the bet size. The MDF is all about the pot odds our opponent will be getting. Maybe it is just semantics.

Thanks

Sorry NW, I'm not totally sure what these terms mean. It's true though that if you're using GTO principles, the pot odds you offer your opponent are important and that influences sizing. So depending on your ratio of value bets to bluffs, you're going to size differently and offer your opponent different pot odds. This is a more advanced concept we're happy to talk about in the future but is outside the scope of this first course!

Hi Collin! I have one more question about pot odds.

Before I started the course I've read Roy Rounder's book "Poker Math Made Easy". It's told that we should count a chance to win using our outs and call every street using these chances.

Should we use this concept? If we should, will we discuss this concept more in future sections?

Thanks!

Yes Showbiz! We'll talk about this more in the Draw discussion coming up

 

[NWPatriot]

Sorry NW, I'm not totally sure what these terms mean. It's true though that if you're using GTO principles, the pot odds you offer your opponent are important and that influences sizing. So depending on your ratio of value bets to bluffs, you're going to size differently and offer your opponent different pot odds. This is a more advanced concept we're happy to talk about in the future but is outside the scope of this first course!

Thanks Collin. No need to reply here, but I do appreciate that you take the time to read and answer these posts. Nice work.

MDF is minimum defense frequency ( pot / (pot+bet) ) - if I make a bet, this is the minimum call frequency that our opponent needs to utilize to prevent us from having >0EV profit with 0% equity (bluffs).
Alpha or required minimum fold rate - ( bet / (pot+bet) - this is simply the opposite of the MDF value. If we make a bluff bet, our opponent needs to fold at least at this rate for us to have >0EV with our 0% equity.

To me, there is a flaw here, in that our goal should be an EV of at least half the pot, not just an EV>0, but this is probably a discussion for another time.

 

[Chalada12]

day 5 completed , not everyone can understand the Pot Odds And Expected Value , i m sure most play don t have a clue about it , but thnxs to this article and to this guide many will know about it and understand it , and even they will be able to improve their game

 

[king11682]

It seems important to me to take into account this information about the Pot odds in order to make a good decision and pay the bet; but it takes time and practice to master it.

 

[Collin Moshman]

Thanks Collin. No need to reply here, but I do appreciate that you take the time to read and answer these posts. Nice work.

MDF is minimum defense frequency ( pot / (pot+bet) ) - if I make a bet, this is the minimum call frequency that our opponent needs to utilize to prevent us from having >0EV profit with 0% equity (bluffs).
Alpha or required minimum fold rate - ( bet / (pot+bet) - this is simply the opposite of the MDF value. If we make a bluff bet, our opponent needs to fold at least at this rate for us to have >0EV with our 0% equity.

To me, there is a flaw here, in that our goal should be an EV of at least half the pot, not just an EV>0, but this is probably a discussion for another time.

Thanks for explaining these definitions NW. Both topics would be great ones for future content.

 

[armoko]

Very valuable chapter. I was playing poker and never was paying attention to pot odds. Now after finishing Day 5 I will carefully think about pot odds before betting.

 

[koXhunter]

nice one never tougt some day i will be reading all this information about poker and put some time into reading and watching video about this i like it very cool

 

[Poma Lekain]

Where the villains put a little hero calls and loses. Where the villains put a lot of hero folds. And where the hero decides that 2.48:1 is much better than 2:1 he calls and wins. All clear.

 

[Muzyka1996]

This is a concept that I need to improve and in this video I am learning more clearly how to calculate the pot odds. This is a tool that must be made with each hand.