I almost put money on daniel, and probably should have honestly. Having played against Daniel a couple of times and had some random convo's with him, he's an extremely bright guy, and he wants to be the best at what he does. Those two things usually equal success. I've never played against Doug.
The younger generation of poker players idolize Doug, and for whatever reason just thought he would chop Daniel up. There's this false notion I've been seeing that solver work will just make you the best player ever, and it's just not that simple. There's a lot that goes into this game, and one big area that Daniel can exploit Doug in, and the little bit I've seen of this match Daniel has already done this, is Doug's ego. Doug doesn't full on tilt, but he makes less than optimal decisions when he starts to run bad. Doug snap called a hand for a full buy-in yesterday he should have folded, and it appeared the whole way he was beaten. It was clearly the result of frustration.
It's going to be closer than these kids thought it was going to be, and I wouldn't be shocked if Daniel won. I mean, Daniel agreed to Doug's only main game and format. This whole setup is Doug's wheelhouse. If this was live, Doug probably for sure loses, he has way too many tells and he gets bored. If this was mixed games, Doug would get destroyed. So props to Daniel no matter what happens, he's the one that went out a limb to make this match happen, not Doug... let's not forget that. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.