$200 NL HE Full Ring: Folding trips to a river raise

Hero is sitting about $400 deep and is the effective stack. Hero straddles to $5 UTG.

EP raises $15, CO and button call, hero completes with 89dd.

Pot is $63. Flop AJ8 rainbow.

Checks through.

Pot is $63. Turn is an 8 completing the rainbow.

Hero checks (with plan to check raise) but it checks through again.

Pot is $63. River is a Q.

Hero bets $40, EP now raises to $160, fold back to hero. What would you do?

My own analysis of this is:
- turn is a mistake. I should just lead after noone has shown any interest on the flop. Could potentially get a J, weak A, or straight draw to call.
- river I just couldn't see what would play this way apart from KT or QQ. EP raises makes me feel AA and JJ are in range but I'd expect them to bet one of the previous streets. I'm also not sure what bluffs villain could have here given checking 2 streets.
- I've also underrepped my hand quite a lot, maybe this means it should be a call if villain thinks I might just be trying to get thin value

What hand would EP do this with after checking through from the flop?

Also, what is a complete rainbow? 🌈 Is it more or less than an incomplete rainbow?

One more thing. Is EP showing any inclination of being a donk? If not I think you can safely fold here and not think about it too much.

Do you mean as a bluff or for value? I put a couple that I thought might do this such as QQ or KT. I don't think either of those are betting into 3 opponents on a AJ8 flop.

Just one of every suit (i.e. no BD flush draws)

No EP is solid.

Thanks for your input!

4! fold. Does he have AQ or QJ in his range? Yes. Did you under play your trip 8's? Yes. Does villain check QQ on turn after it checked around on the flop? Sometimes but I'd probably bet small trying to get value from a Jack or a draw.

I'm not sure about the call preflop? Yes you are getting a price but playing this hand multiway OOP as a caller is going to be tough unless you are against whoppers - this hand case in point and you hit hard with trips.

River: Fold, this is under bluffed, only exception is if we know EP is creative/capable or over-values hands, then you're playing a guessing game hoping you now have a good bluff catcher often enough vs pot odds.

You butchered the turn, just lead, get and value and some protection for your hand, I'd expect villains to remain passive the majority of the time in a multiway pot where Axx flop has already been checked, there are 3 hands out there vs KQ9T7 rivers that complete straights that can make life tough for you.

monkeytilter said:

River: Fold, this is under bluffed, only exception is if we know EP is creative/capable or over-values hands, then you're playing a guessing game hoping you now have a good bluff catcher often enough vs pot odds.

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He's getting better than 2:1. You don't think that villain has enough value bets in his range to make this call?

Four Dogs said:

He's getting better than 2:1. You don't think that villain has enough value bets in his range to make this call?

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You're going from a pot size of $63 on the river to $263 when deciding to showdown or not, for a total of $383 to see showdown. Does that sound like a value bet? To me it sounds like a bluff or the nuts.

Doesn't sound like a bluff but yeah, I think there's enough AQ, QJ in there to make the call, and more so considering how it played out.

Four Dogs said:

He's getting better than 2:1. You don't think that villain has enough value bets in his range to make this call?

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You mean enough bluffs in range?

Hero has to call 120 for pot of 383 (263+120) and needs to be right about 30% of the time (just over 2:1 as you say).

What hands do you think villain turns into a bluff on a 3 straight and paired board facing a 2/3 pot sized bet?
Hero UTG has bet into 3 players remember, Villain has to take that into account and raise with two players still to act, still think think a bluff is likely?

Four Dogs said:

Doesn't sound like a bluff but yeah, I think there's enough AQ, QJ in there to make the call, and more so considering how it played out.

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Ah, you did mean (over-played) value.

Would AQ AJ check the turn again, multiway with board getting wetter??

Bluff catcher in underbluffed line. I would fold.

averagegambler said:

Hero is sitting about $400 deep and is the effective stack. Hero straddles to $5 UTG.

EP raises $15, CO and button call, hero completes with 89dd.

Pot is $63. Flop AJ8 rainbow.

Checks through.

Pot is $63. Turn is an 8 completing the rainbow.

Hero checks (with plan to check raise) but it checks through again.

Pot is $63. River is a Q.

Hero bets $40, EP now raises to $160, fold back to hero. What would you do?

My own analysis of this is:
- turn is a mistake. I should just lead after noone has shown any interest on the flop. Could potentially get a J, weak A, or straight draw to call.
- river I just couldn't see what would play this way apart from KT or QQ. EP raises makes me feel AA and JJ are in range but I'd expect them to bet one of the previous streets. I'm also not sure what bluffs villain could have here given checking 2 streets.
- I've also underrepped my hand quite a lot, maybe this means it should be a call if villain thinks I might just be trying to get thin value

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Have not seen results yet stopped at you checking turn.

With all our hands we want to have a plan for that hand and that plan should be consistent with the overall play or our Villains.
1 We post a straddle why? The main purpose of a straddle is to increase action--which means are V are normally passive- 2 our v play face up post flop no complicated plays no clever bluffs few bluffs at all and lots of showdowns.
So our plan should be to use the above data to decide how we play flops turns and rivers.
If I had the above data I would 100% lead turn with a size that targets Jx and gut shots to call.
Looking at the rest of the hand now.

I like that you assess the turn mistake -using the above data will help in the future to know why to bet turn.

Breaking down the river play we use the above data again.

Are our V not passive and play face up? Yet most likely to not give free cards with AA JJ as you state.
Suddenly this player gets aggro on a board that is very condensed. Is this usual for passive face up players?
This board is not a board your V can value non Ax 2 pair hands because the 88 is present and you can have many many Ax hands and you bet 2 streets and large on the river.

A good exercise here is to do the math to see how often they have to be bluffing. then think what value hand is worse than 8x that checks flop but raises river and then think do they ever suicide bluff thinking to get you off of a chop with AX weak