[25NL 6max] TPTK facing donk shove on flop

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

Villain is 47/15/2 over 200 (mostly datamined) hands. Just sat down at the table, so no clue what this shove might mean. Do we call or fold TPTK against an unknown fish?

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
BB: $12.35 (49.4 bb)
UTG: $33.40 (133.6 bb)
MP: $70.95 (283.8 bb)
CO: $10.15 (40.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25.85 (103.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with A

K

UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.60, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.60

Flop: ($7.55) A

6

T

(2 players)
UTG bets $29.80 and is all-in, Hero ???

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

I'm not sure why *I* am analyzing YOUR hand but I'm attracted to this one for some reason.

I just don't like that this is cold.

Since you just sat down and you don't really know this guy i feel like I am leaning toward folding. I can see him playing this way with 66 or AT(o). Unfortunately It could also be AQ or AK too.

That's a scary board for him to be shoving IN FRONT OF the aggressor (I can't bring myself to say the word d*nk for some reason).

It would be an easy call if I knew he was as silly as he just might be.

But we don't know yet. I lay them down.

Cowboy8112 · Sep 18, 2008

BelgoSuisse said:
Villain is 47/15/2 over 200 (mostly datamined) hands. Just sat down at the table, so no clue what this shove might mean. Do we call or fold TPTK against an unknown fish?

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
BB: $12.35 (49.4 bb)
UTG: $33.40 (133.6 bb)
MP: $70.95 (283.8 bb)
CO: $10.15 (40.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25.85 (103.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with A

K

UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.60, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.60

Flop: ($7.55) A

6

T

(2 players)
UTG bets $29.80 and is all-in, Hero ???

Do you have notes on this player? If you just sat down how do you know if he is a "fish"? Maybe he has a 4 9o and just wants to mess with the new chair or maybe he has sat there for 45 min waiting to catch a monster hand and pushed with his AA and you are drawing dead. Just because someone doesnt let you see free cards doesnt make them a donk. Toss the hand, get a feel for the table. Remember, money not lost spends just as well as money won.

With all that being said. The villain probably has KK or QQ and his push is an anger reaction to seeing the A.

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

Cowboy8112 said:
Do you have notes on this player? If you just sat down how do you know if he is a "fish"?

He's 47/15.

Mehman · Sep 18, 2008

Throw them in the muck, always going to be a better spot then here, we are usually behind, he/she has either got a set or made 2 pair with an ace-rag and is trying to protect it as they have no idea what to do post-flop with a hand or it's a stone bluff but it's the previous far more often, i fold imo.

Jagsti · Sep 18, 2008

Belgo, the HH is not showing suits?, Im not giving up this hand just yet until I know suits

. Plus this guy is a donk!

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

Jagsti said:
Belgo, the HH is not showing suits?, Im not giving up this hand just yet until I know suits . Plus this guy is a donk!

It does, but the images are on stoxpoker's site and it just went through a major update, so i guess it must have been down for a short time.

Anyway, I have AKo and the flop is rainbow.

JimmyBrizzy · Sep 18, 2008

I think I fold and make a note of his play. But it is so tempting to call!!!!!

If he is a really bad player, then I will assume there will be a lot of other opportunities where I can take his money in an easier fashion...especially after I have had time to observe his habits and betting patterns.

I'm folding this.

bw07507 · Sep 18, 2008

Its a 3bet pot, you have TPTK against a total fish. How are we ever folding here? What hand just open shoves this flop? I expect to see some random hand here a lot more than a monster.

widowmaker89 · Sep 18, 2008

Yeah im calling this everytime. we are worried that a fish is open shoving a set so we fold TPTK in a 3bet pot?

Also, better spots are irrevevant as this is cash game and you should capitalize on any edge in every spot.

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

Glad to see there are a few votes for calling because that's what I did... Out of curiosity, I guess.

viking999 · Sep 18, 2008

FWIW at this point, I call it. There's a very small chance of a set or two pair. There's a very large chance of something you have beat. I don't really believe he'd have AK, either. Open overshoving into the raiser with AK in that spot is one of the dumbest things anyone could do. And even fish tend to make the opposite mistake, instead slowplaying it even though it's only one pair. So I think it's a really polarized decision, where he can have you crushed with a set or two pair, or you can have his Ax, KK, QQ, or JJ crushed. I think the latter category is much more likely, given his likely range, his open shove, and the latter category being just plain larger combinatorially.

Edit: And since the pot odds are almost 1:1, the decision is purely between which category is more likely.

JimmyBrizzy · Sep 18, 2008

BelgoSuisse said:
Glad to see there are a few votes for calling because that's what I did... Out of curiosity, I guess.

So what was your analysis of the hand, if anything other than curiosity with TPTK?

I guess it is dumb to fold against a complete fish. I would probably expect him to do something opposite of what his actual strength is. Slowplay a winning hand, shove a losing hand, completely bluff, overvalue an Ax, etc.

But honestly, what the hell do I know I can barely beat 5NL 6max

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

Likminutz said:
So what was your analysis of the hand, if anything other than curiosity with TPTK?

My analysis was: villain is a fish and acts weird. I need to know what weird means to exploit fish. Let's call.

My main concern was: what if he shoves the nuts AND is adept of hit-and-runs? because then the information would not be worth its price.

WVHillbilly · Sep 18, 2008

I call every time. I can't believe the number of posters who would find a fold here.

JimmyBrizzy · Sep 18, 2008

BelgoSuisse said:
My main concern was: what if he shoves the nuts AND is adept of hit-and-runs? because then the information would not be worth its price.

Ok, makes sense.

And by the way...hit and runs by poor players may be one of the bigger factors in putting me on TILT!

ajrobin · Sep 18, 2008

Im like never folding this. Ever. Ive seen villians do this with KK, QQ, JJ ect thinking 'Shit the ace is on the board! Now I have to bluff him off, He cant possible call a shove!!'.

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

I knew when I opened the responses to this thread I would feel dumb once the better players here posted saying the opposite of me.

So I come in today reanalyzing this hand and I end up in the exact same place.

My choice is grudgingly lose $3.60 or risk $30 in a pot where I have many opportunities to be behind.

I AM a weird fish with similarish 6max stats (35/15) and I can tell you the ONLY time I would shove on this flop with just top pair or KK,QQ,ETC is if I was on NUCLEAR tilt.

IF this dude was 47/39 or something over the 200 hands CALL.
IF I had seen him throw out poorly timed bluffs or make stupid bets like this before SNAP CALL.

He knows you have some kind of hand... is this the time for him to bluff the scare card?

I find it odd that peole call him a "donk" with this little info.

He might be... and that is the biggest "donk bet" he can make here. However, if he were me.. and I bet you this way. I am betting against your AA because otherwise I have you beat.

IMPORTANT NOTE: For me this is all dependent on this being a RING GAME. I do not think in tourney strategy by default... and I might treat this differently there.

I am new to hand analysis (of others). Is it normal to be salivating for the results?

This is fun,
cAPS

jewboy07 · Sep 18, 2008

cAPSLOCK;924902 I find it odd that peole call him a "donk" with this little info. He might be... and that is the biggest "donk bet" he can make here. However said:
Caps they arent calling him a donk when you were the preflop raiser and someone bets out like this against you its called "donking into you"

ajrobin · Sep 18, 2008

cAPSLOCK said:
My choice is grudgingly lose $3.60 or risk $30 in a pot where I have many opportunities to be behind.

Were behind AA (unlinkey, this sort of fish like to min-raise mosters or shove all in PF), A10, A6, 66, 1010, 106.Hows that 'many oppurtunities to be behind'? This is a pretty small part of villians range that we are behind. This kinda lag is showing up with AQ, AJ, KK, QQ, JJ other randomg pocket pairs, any other rag ace alot of the time making a cakk profitable. I had someone with these stats do this exact thing with 22 yesterday, it happens.#

Edit: Also villians like this love trying to slow play so if he had a moster like a set of tens hed probably check then min raise thinking hes getting mega value!

widowmaker89 · Sep 18, 2008

A donk bet means betting into the aggressor, its not really affiliated with a donk player. With that said 47/15 stats is good enough in my book to label someone a fish or a donk even with the small sample. I have never ran into a solid player with stats even close to his so that is really enough evidence for me.

So cAPS, do you shove in this situation with a set or two pair ever? That play just doesnt make much sense unless we play the he knows you know he wouldnt shove a set game, but thats way to much credit here. I would hope you wouldnt ever shove any hand here without a rediculously good reason because its never the default best play.

deadhxc · Sep 18, 2008

I am guessing he is on K/Q hoping to push you off a busted flop or low pocket pair.

But, then again this is usually when I would call and see him turn over A/10 or a set.

That said I would still be calling this even if we put him on the top 20%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.947% 76.90% 02.04% 130378 3466.50 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 21.053% 19.01% 02.04% 32227 3466.50 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

So, results:

I call, he shows 66 for a set and takes the hand.

I played quite some more at that table and it appears he was strictly applying this strategy of seeing a lot of flop and shoving as soon as he hit the nuts or close to hit. Weird thing is that he seemed to have great success with his approach. Maybe it's +EV approach to 25nl ?

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

Just for clarity first:

I know what a "donk bet" is. I know that is how Belgo is using the term, and its a lot shorter than "betting into the aggressor" haha. I am just SICK of the word "donk".

Yes. I know better than to go all in here with 2pr or a set. Doesn't mean that I wouldn't do it though. I am an idiot.

I have a feeling most of you play the game far more sophisticatedly than I. It's going to be rough for me when I get to your limits.

I fold the AK and I fold to this thread (though I will still watch) for the sake of not furhter ruining my reputation!

ajrobin · Sep 18, 2008

Wont that stratergy only work when new players sit at the table or really poor players? I mean isolating him and cbetting ruthlessly must surely bring in good results, if we fold everytime he shoves we'll be taking alot of pots uncontested.

Edit: Caps its great that you inputtted and had something to say. One of the best ways ive learned is posting what I would do in hands like these, and being told by others that Id done it horribly. Live and learn! Better to get it wrong in the HA forum then on the table. Keep posting!

[25NL 6max] TPTK facing donk shove on flop

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