[25NL 6max] TPTK facing donk shove on flop

widowmaker89 · Sep 18, 2008

How many hands do you flop the nuts as well, this is a very manipulable strategy if he does mix it up a lot(which would be hard to do since he is just pushing his good hands, everything else probably isnt the nuts). As aj mentioned you could just isolate all day on him.

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

ajrobin said:
Wont that stratergy only work when new players sit at the table or really poor players? I mean isolating him and cbetting ruthlessly must surely bring in good results, if we fold everytime he shoves we'll be taking alot of pots uncontested.

Well, anytime you deviate from the theoretical unexploitable strategy you become exploitable, but that's still what's needed if you want to exploit someone else.

I don't have enough hands on him to know if this works long term, but it does show that people (me in this case) do call big overbets enough to make this kind of shoves reasonable at least. Especially if you have a bad 47/15 image. The way villain does it here is very exploitable once you have notes on him, but i guess that's not too much of an issue at 25nl where the field is huge and you won't run into regs too often.

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

ajrobin said:
Edit: Caps its great that you inputtted and had something to say. One of the best ways ive learned is posting what I would do in hands like these, and being told by others that Id done it horribly. Live and learn! Better to get it wrong in the HA forum then on the table. Keep posting!

Thanks. I will. My problem is I am pretty convinced I don't have it wrong. Pokerstove says so, and so do lots of good players.

Thing is Pokerstove was fed an enormous range, and my question isn't "What hands would he play" as much as "Would he shove with less than 2pr or a set". The answer was "We don't know yet". Now the question is "what is the information worth?". You are all richer than me too.. 30 looks like a lot to me. I must consider that too.

The more I post the more stubborn I get.

I'm on thread tilt now!! I said I would walk away and i have to walk away! It's just this is fun.

widowmaker89 · Sep 18, 2008

hitting a set against TPTK in a 3bet pot and stacking isnt really rocket science, he plays this normal and probably gets your stack anyway. Ignoring people adjusting to him, he wont be running into enough of these situations where he will get paid off on his pushes, it may work two or three times in a short period which would yield big results but being in 50% of pots and straight pushing when you hit is not the best route to take.

widowmaker89 · Sep 18, 2008

caps, the main reason I call this everytime is mostly from experience. Not everyone plays like you do or how they should so you have to start making generalizations on people. In this case, when a 47/15 is at my table I figure they are not a good player and thats someone I want to go against. When someone like this just shoves it is usually a medium high PP or rags, and they are "betting" you dont have an ace and know you wont call without one. Again, you may not do this but this person doesnt think like you. This is probably 100% from experience since neither play(pushing nuts or pushing weak) makes much sense.

JimmyBrizzy · Sep 18, 2008

ha, this guy sounds like a bot, i think i could program something to limp into every hand and push when I get top 2pr+. Wonder if he makes a profit.

Seems to also work against people who have stats on him but no notes. i.e. - ha this donk (47/15) just open shoved into a 3bet pot!

DawgBones · Sep 18, 2008

I am new to all this hand analysis stuff so could someone please explain the 47/15/2 and other similar numbers posted, and where are these numbers available? Also is betting into the aggressor a "donk move" and if so why?

Sincerely,
Possible Donk
In search of
Freedom from
Donkville!

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

47/15/2

47 is VP$IP Which stands for voluntary percent money put in pot (PRE FLOP). It is a measurement of how many hands the player plays. Specifically it is a percentage of hands he PAYS SOMEHING other than a big blind to see. In other words all the hands he folds, and any time he limps in on the BB this number goes down. Whenever he calls, rasies, or completes a SB it goes up. Under various circumstances this number is most profitable in a certain range depending on the player and his style. It reveals something about his style. His is high. It means hes fairly loose.

15 is a similar calculation also dealing with pre flop play. PFR or pre flop raise. It represents what percentage of hands he enters RAISING.... not calling. His is average. He is not terribly agressive pre flop.

2 Is the only post flop number. It is called the Agression factor. It is calculated as raises/calls. So our friend here rasies twice as often as he calls. He is moderately agressive when he stays in a hand.

BUT THESE NUMBERS ONLY REPRESENT A SAMPLE OF 200 HANDS

Here is another number you will see discussed BB/100 which stands for how many big blinds you win per 100 hands. My BB/100 for my last 200 hands is 176.19.

This goes to show you that 200 is a small sample as my BB for the last 15K hands is only 21.7

I am sure there are threads or pages somewhere talking about this. Google VPIP PFR and aggression and you get:

VPIP PFR and aggression - Google Search

GunslingerZ · Sep 18, 2008

cAPSLOCK said:
BUT THESE NUMBERS ONLY REPRESENT A SAMPLE OF 200 HANDS

Caps, make sure you read about how fast each of these stats converge. Players make a decision that affects their VPIP and PFR every hand, so these converge rather quickly. After 200 hands, these two stats will be within a couple percent of their true measurement. You are right about the others. For AF, 200 hands is small, and for BB/100, it's not even one pebble of sand on a beach.

To the OP: I'm also calling this all the time, FWIW.

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

GunslingerZ said:
Caps, make sure you read about how fast each of these stats converge.

You are right. I would have no problem sizing this guy up after 200 hands as a 47/15 player. I just won't overestimate what this means. One of the reasons I used myself as a test case for what was in his head is I can run similarly to this guy but a bit tighter. I think I'm more ike 35/15.

But in any 200 hands you might find me 17/17 or 52/4.

I don't object to seeing him for what he seems to be. I HAVE objected to the instant dismissal of his play (especially post flop) because we all can see from his PF numbers he is a donk/fish. (Once again I am not confusing the donk-bet reference)

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

cAPSLOCK said:
I think I'm more ike 35/15.

you play 5nl, right? It's probably fine there, but if you play this style at 25nl, you will get run over. You limps will be raised by players who have position on you and you'll either have to fold or play a big pot out of position with a mediocre hand. That's a recipe for disaster.

BelgoSuisse · Sep 18, 2008

cAPSLOCK said:
But in any 200 hands you might find me 17/17 or 52/4.

Maybe you need to figure out what hands you can profitably open/call/raise from what positions and stick to that strategy. The kind of variation for vpip/pfr you quote over 200 hands is nearly impossible to blame on the variance of cards dealt, so it means your preflop strategy varies over time which is really a strange idea.

deadhxc · Sep 18, 2008

Im going to butt in here and derail this thread for a sec. I have been dabbling at .05/.10 NL with my freeroll winnings, and over 550 (all I have played since I got PT3 2 days ago) hands I have stats of
25/5.6/2.5

My question what sort of range should I be going for stat wise? I am a serious dummy when it comes to stats and such. Also still trying to learn about poker tracker and all the goodies it has.

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

BelgoSuisse said:
Maybe you need to figure out what hands you can profitably open/call/raise from what positions and stick to that strategy. The kind of variation for vpip/pfr you quote over 200 hands is nearly impossible to blame on the variance of cards dealt, so it means your preflop strategy varies over time which is really a strange idea.

MY preflop strategy varies over time. You have me pretty much nailed there. More specifically it depends on the environment of the table where I am.

Yes. I am playing the minimicros. And I am looking forward to 25nl. But I have to wait. I am building my bankroll from $10 originally. I've come a long way, but I have a way to go before 25nl.

I don't mean to be hijacking your thread Belgo! I find this discussion one of the most enriching I have seen since I've come to CC.

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

deadhxc said:
Im going to butt in here and derail this thread for a sec. I have been dabbling at .05/.10 NL with my freeroll winnings, and over 550 (all I have played since I got PT3 2 days ago) hands I have stats of
25/5.6/2.5

My question what sort of range should I be going for stat wise? I am a serious dummy when it comes to stats and such. Also still trying to learn about poker tracker and all the goodies it has.

That seems good for FR or 6max... You could raise PF more. I imgaine you don't see more than 30% of the rivers do you... 2.5 is solid.

deadhxc · Sep 18, 2008

cAPSLOCK said:
That seems good for FR or 6max... You could raise PF more. I imgaine you don't see more than 30% of the rivers do you... 2.5 is solid.

good guess! 27.7 went to showdown and I win @ showdown 62.

I have been trying to work on not flatcalling or checking so much. I am the worlds worst at that. I am getting to the point now where if I am going to play a hand I will raise it.

I agree with you though this thread has kept my attention from the beginning!

cAPSLOCK · Sep 18, 2008

deadhxc said:
good guess! 27.7 went to showdown and I win @ showdown 62.

62% showdown wins means MAYBE you are folding a wee bit too often. But I guess we have to be careful tinkering with the inside workings of your game.

If it's working it's working.

-edit- oh and 550 hands it too small for me to really comment on your showdown win percent.

Jagsti · Sep 18, 2008

Oh my this thread has seriously gone to rat shit.....

I have no idea what 10nl is like.... but can someone plz tell me that 25/5 whatever is not goot whether at FR or 6max or whatever. PLZ tell me its not a winning strat in the long run.

Please, stop giving advice re: stats or stuff if your not entirely sure what your talking about.

deadhxc · Sep 18, 2008

Jagsti said:
Oh my this thread has seriously gone to rat shit.....

I have no idea what 10nl is like.... but can someone plz tell me that 25/5 whatever is not goot whether at FR or 6max or whatever. PLZ tell me its not a winning strat in the long run.

please don't just say its bad...why is it bad...what should I be shooting for if it is...ALL advice is greatly appreciated.

If needed I can make a new topic to cover this?

widowmaker89 · Sep 18, 2008

jag is right on here 25/5 is terrible. you want to be raising more hands and calling much less. in FR starting out something like 13/10 range is pretty good.

zachvac · Sep 18, 2008

BelgoSuisse said:
Villain is 47/15/2 over 200 (mostly datamined) hands. Just sat down at the table, so no clue what this shove might mean. Do we call or fold TPTK against an unknown fish?

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
BB: $12.35 (49.4 bb)
UTG: $33.40 (133.6 bb)
MP: $70.95 (283.8 bb)
CO: $10.15 (40.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25.85 (103.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with A

K

UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.60, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.60

Flop: ($7.55) A

6

T

(2 players)
UTG bets $29.80 and is all-in, Hero ???

Let's put it this way, if you stack off every time you hit TPTK in this situation it can NOT be a -ev decision ever. Folding can. Now sometimes folding is a more +ev situation, but you better be damn sure you're beat. Let's look at the numbers, assume he was set mining:

He hits his set ~1 in 8.5

He wins $25.85 when he hits, loses 3.60 when he misses.

3.6*7.5 - 25.85 = $1.15 for you if he plays this way every time and you stack off every time. Note that this also means he must fold 100% when he doesn't hit which is also a huge mistake (and not happening) because most of the time you miss your A or K. So I'm definitely inclined to call. If he is able to bluff you here, he turns his play into a +ev play. So basically unless you have a ton of proof that he is never bluffing here, you have to call. Just because you basically committed yourself preflop, which is fine because in the long run of this play, even if he has 66, you win money.

JimmyBrizzy · Sep 18, 2008

zachvac said:
Let's put it this way, if you stack off every time you hit TPTK in this situation it can NOT be a -ev decision ever. Folding can. Now sometimes folding is a more +ev situation, but you better be damn sure you're beat.

I thought folding always had an EV of 0. Please explain....

zachvac · Sep 18, 2008

Likminutz said:
I thought folding always had an EV of 0. Please explain....

It's all about frame of reference. From the point you're at it's always 0, however when looking at the entirety of the hand, 3-betting and then folding to a shove can be -ev.

feitr · Sep 18, 2008

zachvac said:
Let's put it this way, if you stack off every time you hit TPTK in this situation it can NOT be a -ev decision ever. Folding can. Now sometimes folding is a more +ev situation, but you better be damn sure you're beat. Let's look at the numbers, assume he was set mining:

He hits his set ~1 in 8.5

He wins $25.85 when he hits, loses 3.60 when he misses.

3.6*7.5 - 25.85 = $1.15 for you if he plays this way every time and you stack off every time. Note that this also means he must fold 100% when he doesn't hit which is also a huge mistake (and not happening) because most of the time you miss your A or K. So I'm definitely inclined to call. If he is able to bluff you here, he turns his play into a +ev play. So basically unless you have a ton of proof that he is never bluffing here, you have to call. Just because you basically committed yourself preflop, which is fine because in the long run of this play, even if he has 66, you win money.

Well it is actually 2.6$ tho, as you can't count the initial $1 that was put in before the reraise (as raising 66 utg isn't necessarily a -ev play in itself). So that would actually work out to +~$6 for villain. Besides, even if you do take it your way, $1.15/8.5 (13c/hand) is substantially less of a loss/hand for villain than is folding and losing the $1 preflop and therefore a loss of $1/hand. But that still doesn't mean it is a +ev play for villain, as obviously a number of times that he hits his set, hero misses the board and folds to the shove. With the way that villain plays this makes it an incredibly -EV play. Clearly villain is only getting odds here if hero is only ever reraising this with a hand he will stack off with postflop every single time no matter the board, and obviously that is never the case.

Anyways, vs an unknown fishy type villain i think i call here, as i remember in nl50 (where a number of these fellows seem to reside) often calling retarded open shoves like this when i had AA and villain showed things like tpgk. This is just such a backwards way to play the effective nuts, that you can't give villain credit for that without reads suggesting otherwise (ie. every hand after this one).

I Eat Poison · Sep 18, 2008

ring games are not my thing... the reload factor may cause ppl to make calls they wouldnt in a tourney, i prefer tourneys cause if you lose your finished... no reloading.

[25NL 6max] TPTK facing donk shove on flop

widowmaker89

Visionary

BelgoSuisse

Legend

cAPSLOCK

Cardschat Elite

widowmaker89

Visionary

widowmaker89

Visionary

JimmyBrizzy

Visionary

DawgBones

Legend

cAPSLOCK

Cardschat Elite

GunslingerZ

Rock Star

cAPSLOCK

Cardschat Elite

BelgoSuisse

Legend

BelgoSuisse

Legend

deadhxc

Visionary

cAPSLOCK

Cardschat Elite

cAPSLOCK

Cardschat Elite

deadhxc

Visionary

cAPSLOCK

Cardschat Elite

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!

deadhxc

Visionary

widowmaker89

Visionary

zachvac

Legend

JimmyBrizzy

Visionary

zachvac

Legend

feitr

Legend

I Eat Poison

Enthusiast

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site