10k hands and winning at your stake, move up?

bigboi26 · May 10, 2010

if you have higher than 3BB/100 and 10k hands at your level should you take a shot at next level, and of course move down if you start to lose .

slycbnew · May 10, 2010

If your br can handle it, sure. Set a stop loss - i.e., set aside a specific number of buyins for the next limit that you're ok w losing, and if you lose it, drop down immediately.

Note that 10k hands, though, is a fairly small sample, so don't get over confident - make sure you stick to a stop loss model and don't let your ego overtake your common sense.

bigboi26 · May 10, 2010

how many hands is pretty solid? i usually grind turbo sng's but i need a break from those and i used to be a losing cash game player but its been going really well so far.

thepokerkid123 · May 10, 2010

Not really sure how accurate it is but I've read a few times that variance of 3bb/100 is not uncommon after 100k hands.

Your winrate probably isn't accurate >50k hands though, you will be able to tell with reasonable accuracy once your winrate stops changing noticably over a few thousand hands.

Wes747 · May 10, 2010

thepokerkid123 said:
Not really sure how accurate it is but I've read a few times that variance of 3bb/100 is not uncommon after 100k hands.

Your winrate probably isn't accurate < 50k hands though, you will be able to tell with reasonable accuracy once your winrate stops changing noticably over a few thousand hands.

FYP so people aren't confused.

thepokerkid123 · May 10, 2010

Thanks

Stu_Ungar · May 10, 2010

A winrate of 3bb/100 over 10K hands = 300bb in total winnings.

300bb = 3 stacks.

The only way you can be BR'd for the next level is if you were BR'd for the next level 10K hands ago.

Basically 10NL and under you need 20 buyins
25NL 35 buyins
50NL 60 buyins
100NL 80-100 buyins
200NL 100 buyins minimum

Essentially you are aiming to grow your BR such that you reach 100NL with about 100buyins. Thereafter its 100 buyin minimum.

Mase31683 · May 11, 2010

http://www.pokervariancesimulator.fr/

My standard deviation is 42BB/100, so I used that. You can find that stat in HEM/PT3 though. Here's what 3BB/100 over 10,000 hands looks like. Pretty good chance (80%) that you are in fact a winning long-term player, though how much of a winner is unclear. 20% of players winning at 3BB/100 with a 42BB standard deviation will in fact still be long-term losers.

The 2nd image is after 50k hands. Almost everyone who is winning at 3BB/100 over 50,000 hands is a long-term winner. 92% winners, 8% losers.

The 3rd is after 100k hands, and now all players are long-term winners though the true winrate can vary quite a bit.

If a player has a larger winrate, and/or a lower standard deviation, that player could be classified as a long-term winner with a smaller sample size.

No Brainer · May 11, 2010

Where would you find your standard deviation in HEM?

Truffle Shuffle · May 11, 2010

funny, i play 4NL or 5NL and am not rolled for 10nl. was worried that play at 10nl would be more difficult.

but, i've just started playing it anyway, on condition that if i lose 2-3 buyins i move back down.

thing is - from wot i've seen so far the play is WORSE ! and ok, you can lose more money but you can also win more. i'm gonna carry on and see what happens.

GL to you if you do the same

Stu_Ungar · May 11, 2010

Truffle Shuffle said:
funny, i play 4NL or 5NL and am not rolled for 10nl. was worried that play at 10nl would be more difficult.

but, i've just started playing it anyway, on condition that if i lose 2-3 buyins i move back down.

thing is - from wot i've seen so far the play is WORSE ! and ok, you can lose more money but you can also win more. i'm gonna carry on and see what happens.

GL to you if you do the same

Poor BRM is the beginning of the end. If you are not rolled for a stake you shouldn't be playing it.

slycbnew · May 11, 2010

stubzy11 said:
Where would you find your standard deviation in HEM?

On the main page to the left of the reports, there's a column of stats - at the bottom is a + sign that you can click on to add stats. Add st dev, then refresh the view.

Truffle Shuffle · May 13, 2010

Stu_Ungar said:
Poor BRM is the beginning of the end. If you are not rolled for a stake you shouldn't be playing it.

Your absolutely right Stu. got a couple of bad beats, then made one bad decision - 3 buyins down, which is 6 buyins at my normal level. ah well. back to the grind LOL.:bird:

am not gonna try again until properly rolled. just need to grind another £150 ! can't wait !

Skaplun · May 14, 2010

Truffle Shuffle said:
Your absolutely right Stu. got a couple of bad beats, then made one bad decision - 3 buyins down, which is 6 buyins at my normal level. ah well. back to the grind LOL.:bird:

am not gonna try again until properly rolled. just need to grind another £150 ! can't wait !

If you learned from this "one time slip up" you are a better man than i.

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