19BI Downswing???

Please stop implying its a leak to get KK all in pre. You are better then that.

MinhANguyen said:

Considered folding KK to a 4-bet for the 7th time this week, but just jammed in it anyway. Obv AA but sucked out. It's unbelievable that like 12-14 of my BI downswing is from losing with KK/AK/AA all-in preflop over 20k hands. I think I am bleeding money overall with KK all-in pre... Not being biased but looking back from 25NL-100NL, I've seen too many KK vs AA. A LOT of people flat AK/QQ to a 3-bet, which are the hands we pray to see when we get it in with Kings.

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This sounds exactly like micro stakes Zoom on PokerStars. Most players will flat a 3bet with AK/QQ and only 4bet KK+. Of course, the way you take advantage of this is to 4bet bluff a lot more with junk hands like ATo that would typically be just folding to a 3bet.

Think about it in terms of combos: if they're 3betting a range of {99+, AQ+} and folding to your 4bet with everything except {KK+}, then there are 68 combos of hands that will 3bet you and only 12 combos of hands that won't fold to your 4bet. That means that 82% of your opponent's range is going to fold to a 4bet.

Matthew Southall said:

This sounds exactly like micro stakes Zoom on PokerStars. Most players will flat a 3bet with AK/QQ and only 4bet KK+. Of course, the way you take advantage of this is to 4bet bluff a lot more with junk hands like ATo that would typically be just folding to a 3bet.

Think about it in terms of combos: if they're 3betting a range of {99+, AQ+} and folding to your 4bet with everything except {KK+}, then there are 68 combos of hands that will 3bet you and only 12 combos of hands that won't fold to your 4bet. That means that 82% of your opponent's range is going to fold to a 4bet.

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4-betting light is super high variance, which I really hate. And people don't fold to a 4-bet even close to that high a %, so I believe it would be spew. I've seen 75o call me OOP, 87s, 88-JJ, etc. Also QQ a lot. In my experience, cash games 4-bet ranges are much tighter, so I do see KK vs AA at a higher % as opposed to Zone. Every once in a while Zone has spewtards 4-bet shoving 44, 1010, some AK.

If we hold an A, I think that cuts down the 12 combos in theory though if they only give us action with (KK+). Just mentioning it haha.

IPlay, I seriously think I've lost money overall with KK all-in pre overall at 25NL/50NL/100NL. There are few spew/QQ/AK here and there, but AA is what I see a lot of the time. I wanted to fold so bad everytime this week with KK 7-8 times against the 4-bet/5-bet shove. Always jammed it in against my gut, and obv got shown the nuts. Twice flatted a 4-bet with KK IP deep-stacked. First time lost my stack vs AA, and second A flopped and he had AK. Like I said, people flat AK/AQ/QQ/JJ a lot to 3-bets, so KK doesn't have great equity against a 5-bet shove/calling range. I actually read somewhere that this guy broke even with KK over a 850k hand sample. And that's bad news for me if he plays on Pokerstars, which is known for its BTN vs Blind aggression and preflop wars in general.

Holding ATo reduces the number of combos of {KK+} hands from 12 to 9, but it also reduces the number of combos of {99+, AQ+} hands from 68 to 54, so it almost evens out (you end up with a ratio of 9/54 as opposed to 12/68, which is fairly similar). But that was just an example anyway, you won't always have ATo.

So what you're trying to tell me is: you can't 4bet bluff because players are calling your 4bets lightly (plenty of hands worse than KK), but then you can't give their 4bets action with KK because their 4betting range is {KK+}?

If that's the case, then this is highly exploitable. Try increasing your 4bet value range to something like {QQ+, AK}. Let the fish flat your 4bets with whatever junk hands they're flatting your 4bets with. Make your 4bet sizing at least 2.5x the 3bet sizing and they won't have the odds to set-mine against you, so they'll just be paying you off or folding a lot.

Also, you should never avoid maximising your EV just to reduce variance. If you have an alternative play that's equally +EV but with lower variance, then by all means go with that, but it doesn't sound like you do.

The guy that broke even with KK over 850k hands, was that exclusive to preflop? Maybe he spews post and can't find folds when he should? Did you actually see a graph or is this hear say? I'm willing to bet this guy is just bad if it is true. I am winning 845bb/100 with KK over 300,000+ hands and I bet you are close to that to if you have a tracker(which you should at this point)

IPlay said:

I also think you should withdraw and leave yourself a 40 buy in roll for 25NL

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This is the best advice in the thread. The real 100nl regs are likely well versed in unexploitable 3betting and 4betting ranges... OP is folding kings pre and shaking like a leaf.

Matthew, it's hard to 4-bet light because all the players on Zone are anonymous. If I had stats that show they are capable of 3-betting light, are constantly 3-betting my CO/BTN raises, and have reggist stats indicating they are not going to spew and call with 75o/mid PP OOP, I do 4-bet light with Axs hands to get them off my back. I've done this a few times in cash games, but you never know what's going to happen in Zone because they do a lot of spewy stuff. It's much easier to say than do maximizing +EV spots, even very marginal ones, at the cost of super high variance. Imagine playing in the actual high stakes poker game like 2kNL. 5-betting jamming light in this one particular spot always nets a +EV of 0.5/100bb, but you can just fold instead to reduce variance. This idea is mentioned in some articles explaining some other ways professional poker players attempt to reduce their variance. The money factor and tilt does sink in much harder from variance and losing once you play higher and higher. The reward doesn't really outweigh the risks.

Iplay, the graph was all-in KK preflop only. KK had something like low 50% all-in equity against a stackoff range. He didn't count postflop. He'd be a terrible player if he couldn't find an overall winning with KK.

Bitowl, I've never folded KK pre. I have had many times where I was pretty certain he had AA and wanted to fold, but I always end up shipping it in <120BB to see AA pretty often. Deep-stacked 150-200+BB I flat the 3-bet/4-bet and sometimes 4-bet depending on reads and on my position.

Like a fishy guy min 3-bets you MP vs your UTG open, and you come over the top with a huge 4-bet. He then min 5-bets you, and you hold KK. Are you happy with shipping it in? I wasn't, but I shipped it in and obv he had AA. In Zone, you're 160bb deep, and you barely cover another (probable) reg. You 3-bet in MP vs UTG, and he 4-bets you. You happy with KK? I flatted IP and went broke obviously. There are many situations that come up where I'm 90% sure they have AA, and I always read that you can't fold KK preflop in 6-max. Following that advice, I ship it in and go broke a decent amount.

At Bovada or live where your stats cannot be tracked, having exploitable ranges is the most profitable way to go. If you know someone's stack-off range is only KK+, then you cannot call off with less than AA. And if people call your 3-bets and 4-bets light, the most profitable way is to go with 3-betting/4-betting for pure value. Why be unexploitable when the most profitable way is to by exploiting someone else's weaknesses? 3-betting/4-betting an unexploitable range for the sake of being unexploitable is spew and not more +EV than having an exploitable range at the low stakes/micros where other people are typically unbalanced. Having unexploitable ranges is really only required when you are playing against regs who have super balanced ranges, and when these regs have stats on you. Sure, if I play on Pokerstars and play against nerdy GTO opponents who can see my stats, I will adjust to have unexploitable ranges so they can't 4-bet/5-bet light and take advantage of me.

Another example from this week. In Zone, UTG limps, CO iso raises, you 3-bet from the SB with KK, UTG 4-bet shoves for 30bb, CO tanks and 5-bet shoves. I wanted to fold, but didn't. Want to guess what CO had? There just seems to be a bandwagon of people that just mindlessly say "Don't fold KK preflop 6-max" unless there's crazy action like a cold 5/6-bet shove or two big nits with stats of 9/8 getting into a preflop war.

CSINSC said:

PTo practice proper BRM you should ONLY lose 4 BI's max per session & that is if ONLY the game is really juicy.

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What? Why?
Does losing 4 buyins guarantee that you're going to start playing bad or less than optimal? To me this makes no sense.... unless of course you're prone to Tilt when you lose a few buyins in a session. Personally I couldn't give two f4cks if I drop a half-dozen buyins in a session (but I wouldn't know if it was 6 because I don't keep track). I just continue to play. If I'm not playing well, I stop playing. If I'm playing well, I continue to play. Quitting while playing well (& wanting (feeling motivated) to play) seems counterproductive to me. But then again I think Donald Trump is a complete & total f4cken moron and feel that anyone who could dream of supporting such a p.o.s. isn't someone who thinks along similiar lines as myself.

MinhANguyen said:

Another example from this week. In Zone, UTG limps, CO iso raises, you 3-bet from the SB with KK, UTG 4-bet shoves for 30bb, CO tanks and 5-bet shoves. I wanted to fold, but didn't. Want to guess what CO had?

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That's an enthusiastic snap call 100% of the time against 100% of players.

Your head's messed up from running bad and you need to drop down to where the money won't cloud your judgement to reset. I also guarantee you're misplaying hands because you're spooked.

This is from about a 700k hands of which 300k are at 25nl

KK all in pre.

Currently on a 10bi downswing myself though, haven't been able to string a winning session in two weeks and that is really unusual for me. Hell even a losing session used to be pretty rare, its getting tougher all the time.
Yeah I'm feeling bad about it but reading your post makes me realise it could be worse.
And yes I'd say players are less willing to get 100bb in with QQ than they used to, still seeing plenty of AK though.
If you get KK in against just AA KK AK QQ you should only be winning 57% of hands anyway according to my equity calc.
There might be a few less all ins than you might expect in my stats as if the betting looks very heavy preflop from a nit I will flat 4 bets with KK and only get it in on non ace flops. it probably loses EV but I tilt less
Poker is a confidence game so I'd advise you drop down and get some back and you aren't doing this for a living (yet) so don't put yourself under so much pressure and play for fun a bit more.
I'm not playing purely for the money at the moment, I'm just trying to be the best player I can be and then hopefully the money should look after itself.

Still shotting 100NL and up 9BI over 5k hands. I'm not being delusional, but I think in the past two sessions I've been on my A+ game. I don't think I've ever played better. I'll admit: I was probably on my C+ game in the middle of my 19BI downswing. I am running pretty hot, but I did run into some bad beats, suckouts, and once a one-outer.

I outplayed a decent number of deep-stacked regs, and won a decent amount from them. One 630bb deep-stacker in Zone, whom I just about covered, said "Why u gotta do that" and tank folded after my Q high float against his half-pot donk on a AA7r board. I potted the turn. Lmao that actually gave me a good laugh. Quit my session around 4 A.M. since it was starting to get infested with deep-stacked regs.

Wish me luck, guys. I am doing a temporary shot like I did months ago at 100NL and will drop back down if I hit 18 or so BI. I really hope that I make it. I'd hate to drop down to 50NL because Zone is only open 2-3 hrs a day at night. I would basically have to set my schedule around poker, which irritated me back then and tilted the shit out of me, especially if I went on a downswing. Like, I want to play poker whenever and wherever I want. I don't want it dictating my life/schedule.

Oh, ran my KK into AA three times again in 5k hands. Sucked out for the first time over 10+ hands all-in pre to runner runner diamonds. The second time the UTG raiser flatted my 3-bet for no reason (I would have 5-bet jammed over him), and I only won a small pot after catching a K on the river. 2nd time was vs a 36bb shortie; never getting away from it. Got in KK against a spaz 22 (yes, deuces) 3-bet squeeze and held up, which was nice. And I followed my nagging gut once and folded KK for the first time in my life. Probably gonna get flamed for this but oh well.

Figaroo, I see what you mean when you say that if you get KK against that range you have 57% equity (I didn't calculate so I'll just assume). But when certain really weird actions go on in-game and my gut really tells me he has AA, I'm almost always right. I'm not saying I'm making a habit of folding KK, but if I have reason to believe his range is weighted toward the stronger side and I am in bad shape, I might fold KK again. You can't say that you'll always have 57% equity against a single stackoff range.

Like an example I posted earlier. You open UTG, a fish min 3-bets you, you come over the top with a huge 4-bet, and he min 5-bets you. Do you really think you have anywhere near 57% equity against his range? I have some other moments where I was 90% certain he had AA, and I was almost always right but went broke anyway. I read a post somewhere here where you said your coach told you your gut is almost always right. I think it is, and a lot of times if I listened to it I wouldn't have tried to bluff-catch on rivers where I knew I was beat, folded KK pre correctly, folded a big hand correctly, etc.

The problem with going with your gut preflop when you're running bad all you can see is AA. I think your gut is more important further down the streets when your experience helps you.
I mentioned the 57% because you were bemoaning your results with KK when really we should be losing a lot of the time when all in preflop anyway.

That Q high potting turn hand sounds pretty spewy. Why pot the turn? Think he only folds to that sizing?

Figaroo2 said:

The problem with going with your gut preflop when you're running bad all you can see is AA.

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I agree, but think of it as - when you're running bad, you need to reduce variance, not increase it.

No, I am generally willing to go broke with KK. There are just some spots that have very weird spots/actions in-game that make me believe someone has AA like > 85% of the time, like the example I posted above. I knew he had AA; this was not the first time I thought I should have folded to a fishy min-raise followed by a small 5-bet. I've never seen less than AA when fish take this line. I've played like 400k hands, so I do have decent experience. I think I've developed some gut feeling that's right a lot of the time in weird situations where I'm most likely beat pre/post.

Iplay, I didn't think a flop bluff-raise would look like I'm repping anything to strong reg on such a dry board other than quads lol or a flopped full (but do those really raise such a weak bet on a dry board?). When he donks out, his range is super weak. If he had a monster, he'd check-raise in order to build a pot and win a good anount of my stack.

Yeah, I think he does not fold to a 60% PSB. I don't think he donked out OTF half-pot like a fish to see where he was at to just fold to a small turn bet on a board where my value range is so narrow. By potting it I'm maximizing leverage and putting maximum pressure on his entire range, which is SDV hands. I think the way I played it, I can credibly rep a big hand. If I float and bet 60-70% OTT, it really just looks like a float. I'm not doing that with hands that have SDV. I generally give up to donks unless I have decent equity and think that a bluff-raise is profitable on certain board textures/vs certain bet sizings. Been implementing that into my game and had been doing pretty good.

MinhANguyen said:

up 9BI over 5k hands.

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And how many of them were coolers gone in your favor? Or how much above EV are you running simply by not getting sucked out on? You should be keeping a mental tally of how good you're running so when variance kicks into high gear you can look back and realize that you're about where you should be. 9BI over 5k hands is 18bb/100 which is likely a multiple of your actual winrate.

Glad you bounced back though, gl.

I dont get how you know you have over 400k hands played, your win rate or how much under ev you are running without a tracker. Also sure you got the fold that time but it will probably be unprofitable to float with air and pot sized bet turn more often then not. If this is playing your A+ game you may want to reevaluate when you are on a heater and running into the right part of ranges vs you playing your A+ game. Just because you are crushing over 5k hands doesn't mean you are playing great.

I have always thought you have been results orientated in the hand analysis forum but the results orienated thinking is really showing here. Just trying to help your awarenessd. This is another benefit of a hud because you get a clear picture of how you are playing.

Coolers gone in my favor? Maybe one or two. A high flush over K high flush, but it's the deep-stacked reg's fault for paying off a 5x river check-raise against a river 2x overbet when the BDFD completed in a spot no one is ever bluffing or doesn't have the nuts. KK vs AA sucked out. And I did get sucked out on a decent amount of time, so I'm not running super hot. Lost 2 70/30 back-to-back in 10 minutes two nights ago, and got one-outered yesterday among some hands. Yeah, I know it's a multiple of my winrate and is not my true winrate. Thanks, I might need the luck.

Iplay, I track my games individually and calculate my bb/100 after each game. I play 700 hands per hour, and I estimate how many sessions/hours I've played.

I don't always float there. I had a pretty good idea that I could get him off his hand, and I had a BDSD and 95% of the time two live overs that I'm checking if I hit. Of course I'm never floating hands like 76s there with 0 equity there. That is spew. I didn't really float with air; I probably had like 20-25% equity against his range I didn't say this hand in particular was my A+ game. I just posted that hand for the lols because I found it amusing. Should have stated so.

I bluff-catched in many crucial pots where I might have folded before, and made a lot of good reads on bluff-raising certain spots too. Made very few bad hero calls too. Most of my bluff-raises got through, which is something I spewed with occasionally. Shutting down after bluff-raising instead of spewing into capped ranges that I would hope to fold, reading ranges better, etc. Not cold-calling in the blinds with speculative hands/weak sooted aces/medium SCs. And I do know that being on a heater does not mean I played great. I know I played well, and that helped contribute to my heater. During my downswing, my head was messed up a bit. Like Bitowl said, I was spooked at times, and I didn't make as good reads/make moves on my opponents at the right time. And I stopped making spewy plays that I made during my downswing/before my downswing. Took some time off and thought about some of my leaks, and did a pretty good job of not making the same mistakes not just during my downswing but in general.

Not sure what you mean by being results oriented in the hand analysis forum, since most of the time results aren't even posted. I try to be objective as possible, and if there are results, I reply before seeing the results.

I plan to get a HUD once my BR builds up. I don't know what will happen in the future, and I don't want to spend $150+ on these programs to just end up quitting/withdrawing. Poker is a tough game mentally. I think we can both relate. I don't imagine it'd help my game that much anyway. I'd mainly use it for the HUD to see other players' stats on the cash game. I review hands constantly while I'm playing using the hand replayer.

I actually used it for some time on a trial and followed some suggestions in their leakbuster, but it made me lose more money than my overall strategy. Like 3-betting more from blinds, like way more. But you can't profitably do that in Zone if the players, who are pretty strong, are super aggro and try to outplay you IP with garbage with 76s/PP/suited broadways/suited aces. Opening up even more in EP/MP. Tried that. Was terrible. My CO/BTN are fine.

Most of the time in HA forum it is pretty obvious hands are posted because the OP lost. Dont exactly need to see results but thats besides the point and was just an example. I would say the most glaring evidence of being results oriented is in ITT when you talk about KK.

If you are playing 100NL isnt PT4 worth a buy in even if you improve your game by 1bb/100 as a result? It would pay for itself in 10k hands.

Of course it would be pointless if you were to quit soon but lets be real, you are going to get through this swing and keep grinding.

Tbf if I didnt know you were a solid reg and this was your first thread on these forums, I would assume you were a fish that was playing in stakes over his head.

Oh wow, I seriously did not know that most of the hands posted in the HA forums were because OP lost... Wow, okay. Guess I never really paid attention haha.

Yeah, you're probably right. I'm most likely getting out of this hole and going back to grinding. And the PT4 purchase would definitely pay for itself pretty fast. But I just can't bring myself to buy it yet. There's this nagging in the back of my head that won't let me do it until I am 100% sure that I'm out of this downswing and that my BR is healthy again. I withdrew $1025 last week, and bought a laptop on sale for my sister's birthday for 900 after tax. So I can just buy PT4/HM2 whenever. Currently at 29BI. Still up 17BI overall at 100NL over 50k hands, so maybe I'm just whining. But hey, I think it'd be pretty hard not to after going on such a huge downswing for the first time in 400k hands at stakes where losing 20BI is like half the money I've ever touched in my entire life.

I was just looking back at my graph. I lost 20BI in 8k hands. Some of it was bad play but a lot of it was variance. It definitely happens man, just grind on.

Agro 100NL

This one time in 100NL Ignition Zone, I had AK in BB, MP open 3bb, CO call, I 3bet to 4x, MP call, CO fold, effective 250bb, flop AQx, so I bet 1bb, MP call, Turn second diamond, I bet half pot, villain call, River Ace, I snap check, Villain tank shove, I call, villain shows J7dd missed draw.

Lessons:
* Players with 200bb stacks arr generally competent
* YOLO bluffs aren't a rare occurance.
* Play conservative OOP, bluff catch often
* Competent players can range you. The hand above, I capped my range to AK, TT+. I under rep my hand as I usually do OOP. You just have to accept that you will lose often OOP. Villain can have QQ and thought I can't have an Ace due to bet sizing. KK was the likely hand I can have. He shipped a massive 200bb shove thinking I would fold or should fold KK. These river shoves aren't rare. So happens I have a hand to call. There were shoves that I couldn't call like having 99 on a 55757 board. Should have been easy but pot was so small that it wasn't worth the risk.

See you fishes at the tables.

In downswing for over 7 months now....