$2/$5 Live hero call. Can I even beat a bluff?

This is a $2/$5 hand I played at Foxwoods last weekend.

The Villain in this hand is a 30 something year recreational player wearing an expensive Bruins jersey, (Milan Lucic I think) who plays way too many hands but is far from the worst player at the table. His wife is hovering impatiently as Game 5 of the Stanley Cup is starting in a few minutes and they have reservations to watch the game at one of the clubs.

Blinds $2/$5. Effective stacks $450+/-
Preflop - With 2 limpers I Hero ($500+/-) raises to $17 in the CO with . Villain ($450+/-) on the Button calls, Both blinds fold, and the 2 limpers call.
Flop (pot $45) Check Check. Hero bets $30, Villain calls, 2 folds
Turn (pot $104) Hero bets $60 and Villain calls
River (pot $224) I check and Villain bets $130.

This bet just reeks of a missed draw, but what kind? A back door diamond draw with the and maybe a pair to go along with it? I can rule out 67 as I’m sure I would have heard from him right away but what about a straight draw with a 5 or a 6? I'm getting 3.5:1 but is that enough? The thing is I can’t think of a non Ace hand with one of those cards that hasn’t already paired the board.

I can't find a call here. Villains hand just reeks of a weak pair with a missed draw. With villains passivity I might have fired a river bet of $75 to rep an overpair.

Raise much more pre. To like $30-40 or something -- you really don't want a bunch of callers with that hand. If you think there's someone who will usually raise preflop behind you though, then limp-3bet (and make it big).

As played here though... yeah I dunno. He could have a pair or drilled a 9... If he's stationy then his hand is made very often (and he has a ton more 9x hands than, say, you would).

shouldnt the pot going into the flop be $75 not $45 ?

rocket316 said:

shouldnt the pot going into the flop be $75 not $45 ?

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Yes, I forgot to add in the two limp calls, sorry. Everything else about the hand is correct. The river bet was exactly $130. looks like i was getting slightly better odds to call.

I can't find a call here...

It could be he is turning a pair and a straight draw into a bluff, who knows.

If there was a flush draw on the flop, this would be a much more interesting conversation.

Hero calls for big chips usually are losers in live low/mid limit poker IMO.

Just wondering if you are barreling turn to get him off small pairs?

You can consider shoving. His bet seems weak, he's about to leave and people rarely check shove bluffs at these limits.

I see his hand as some sort of weak pair and gutterball or possibly a nine, I don't think he's bluffing here. You should of hit the breaks on this turn, all your pretty much repping is an overpair.

You probably can't call, so ship or fold? Betting the turn was most likely a mistake, unless he's on a pure airball float, you can't expect him to be folding much.

So I tank for about a minute which is as long as I'll ever take, I just cant put him on many hands that aren't a bluff. He says "good call" and turns over 56o for a pair and a gutshot which is of course, good enough to beat my Ace high.

Aleksei said:

Raise much more pre. To like $30-40 or something -- you really don't want a bunch of callers with that hand. If you think there's someone who will usually raise preflop behind you though, then limp-3bet (and make it big).

As played here though... yeah I dunno. He could have a pair or drilled a 9... If he's stationy then his hand is made very often (and he has a ton more 9x hands than, say, you would).

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I actually don't mind a lot of callers, especially in position. Yes my winrate goes down but my EV goes up. Generally EP limpers are just dead money. Limp Call, Fold. I can usually tease out a slow played monster and I'm rarely stacking off unless I smell a big rat. I find that preflop limpers rarely just go away when you raise so why not keep it small? I'd rather just fold AQ preflop then 8x or 10x it.

A2345Razz said:

I can't find a call here...

It could be he is turning a pair and a straight draw into a bluff, who knows.

If there was a flush draw on the flop, this would be a much more interesting conversation.

Hero calls for big chips usually are losers in live low/mid limit poker IMO.

Just wondering if you are barreling turn to get him off small pairs?

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It's hard to say in live cash because there are no hand histories to refer to but in my experience there's a ton of value in well timed river calls. This however was not one of them. And yes I expect small pairs to fold. It's a rare board that I don't fire a second shot at and I probably fire three way more than anyone you'll ever meet.

jsh169 said:

I see his hand as some sort of weak pair and gutterball or possibly a nine, I don't think he's bluffing here. You should of hit the breaks on this turn, all your pretty much repping is an overpair.

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In low limit cash, it's not so much about what you're repping as what the villain is repping, they don't hand read. Still, repping an overpair in this case should be enough. I raised preflop, bet flop and bet turn. Why can't I rep Tens or better on a 9 high board?

I'm not a big fan of the check call bluff catcher but on a different board I think it could be the right play. Let's say the board was suited and triple gapped instead of double. There would have been alot more non paired draws in his range and my ace high would have had a better chance of standing up. As it was, there were plenty of gutshots in his range but most of the likely ones would have at least paired up by the river. The only bluffs he could have that I beat were A6 and A7 and make no mistake, this WAS a bluff.

I did run all his most likely hands through PokerStove and against that range I was about 27% so calling was probably EV neutral or slightly better and even if there are a few more value hands than I assumed it wouldn't have changed things much either way.

djo said:

You can consider shoving. His bet seems weak, he's about to leave and people rarely check shove bluffs at these limits.

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Cafeman31 said:

You probably can't call, so ship or fold? Betting the turn was most likely a mistake, unless he's on a pure airball float, you can't expect him to be folding much.

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If you mean it than good instincts both of you, you're better players than me. That's exactly what I should have done and I don't think I'm being results oriented. There just aren't a lot of hands that he would play this way for value. I just don't see many low limit recreational players flatting the flop and turn with sets and straights. Even if he backed into trips he probably would have bet the turn when the second diamond appeared. IMO this is a bluff 90% of the time and a bet or a raise makes him go away. Check calling was the worst of my options. No excuses sergeant, I guess I just chickened out.

$35 minimum preflop

you're so much better off betting the river yourself than calling here.

I think you played the flop and turn pretty poorly. It isn't a crime to give up on such a wet board. I am all for aggression, but what type of story are you trying to tell on an 854 board. When the 9 ott comes, I think villain might might actually have a set. When the river pairs the board, I am thinking that vilain is hoping you have an over-pair and will pay-off. I am all 4 hero calling with proper odds and reads; but hero calling imo is probably the worst play here. Jamming is only slightly better. I think this pot @ the very least should have ended ott, preferable otf. I think that you should have checked the flop, and assessed what happened ott.

grandpajesse said:

I think you played the flop and turn pretty poorly. It isn't a crime to give up on such a wet board. I am all for aggression, but what type of story are you trying to tell on an 854 board. When the 9 ott comes, I think villain might might actually have a set. When the river pairs the board, I am thinking that vilain is hoping you have an over-pair and will pay-off. I am all 4 hero calling with proper odds and reads; but hero calling imo is probably the worst play here. Jamming is only slightly better. I think this pot @ the very least should have ended ott, preferable otf. I think that you should have checked the flop, and assessed what happened ott.

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My story is that I raised preflop with 88-AA and if villain got mud like he will most of the time that's a pretty good story but if either one of the limpers had bet the flop I would have shut right down. This board really isn't all that wet. A rainbow flop, all low? I'm c-betting this board 100% of the time in position. But OOP, check calling or a delayed C-bet might not have been bad.

baudib1 said:

$35 minimum preflop

you're so much better off betting the river yourself than calling here.

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Way too much if your plan is to c-bet and barrel and yeah, I should have bet the river. I just lost my nerve.

I don't really like cbetting a 4 way pot on 854r w/2 limpers, seeing as their range smashed that board and there never folding a pair or any draws


as played, c/f imo

I agree with x on this. There are too many people in the pot to be firing away with A high. There are too many possibilities that could beat you. Also you said that the preflop pot was $75. That means that you were only betting about half the pot on each street. That was probably what was keeping him in the hand. He had a pair and a few outs. Also that is the perfect flop for him. I am sure he thought you had a big ace or KQ. Since you f'd up the pot totals his river bet wasn't that big, about half the pot.
I think you should have bet bigger on the flop and if he called play it conservative from there.

I don't see you calling and beating anything here. Especially the description you gave of him about to leave and such. No players decide to bluff when they know they're about to rack up. They want to book the win or whatever they have and then part.

IClickButtons said:

I don't see you calling and beating anything here. Especially the description you gave of him about to leave and such. No players decide to bluff when they know they're about to rack up. They want to book the win or whatever they have and then part.

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But it was a bluff. Do you think he was betting the 5 for value?

is a move more difficult to analyze and if I use google translator! in poker nothing is certain that I have learned over time! the river lately killing me! I hope your game progress and variance change in your favor

foxwoods is my nextdoor neighbor and one of my best friends. 30-40 dollar utg raises with q10 at a 1-2 table ....classsic

wait i take that back q10 might be giving too much credit

RickH1983 said:

I agree with x on this. There are too many people in the pot to be firing away with A high. There are too many possibilities that could beat you. Also you said that the preflop pot was $75. That means that you were only betting about half the pot on each street. That was probably what was keeping him in the hand. He had a pair and a few outs. Also that is the perfect flop for him. I am sure he thought you had a big ace or KQ. Since you f'd up the pot totals his river bet wasn't that big, about half the pot.
I think you should have bet bigger on the flop and if he called play it conservative from there.

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Well, I can see your point but I was in position vs the 2 limpers and if either one of them had "smashed" the flop I would have heard from them right away. On a dry flop like that it was very likely that their checks represented true weakness so I'm pretty much always firing at least one barrel at this which is my plan whenever I raise preflop vs. limpers. I never expect them to just fold. When I fired the second round on the turn I had seen both EP limpers check twice so I was really only playing against the button caller who probably did hit the flop in some way but had yet to show any real strength.

Yes, I bet about half the pot on each street. Sometimes I'll bet a little more but IMO it's enough to serve my purpose. I like to C-bet and I like to barrel and the 1/2 pot bets give me both information about my opponent and flexibility should I choose to fire a third. That may seem weak but it's still too much for them to chase me with a draw. When I suddenly get lead into on a scare card I can easily fold all bluffs and even made hands up to a straight if conditions are right. This may seem reckless and there are nights I get stuck for $500 but more often then not I come out ahead.

All that said, I really did play this quite poorly. I decided to bluff right out of the gate which is fine but I chickened out on the river even though Vilain showed no indication that he would have called a big bet. In retrospect, firing a third barrel would have made the most sense. A check raise would have worked in this case but I think it would have looked fishy enough to get a call from some better made hands. Even a check fold would have been better than the way I played it as my ace had absolutely zero showdown value. I usually play $1/$2 but I'll occasionally step up to $2/$5 and I think the size of the pot may have had some effect on the way I played the hand. No question I would fired a pot sized bet at $1/$2.

italiano said:

is a move more difficult to analyze and if I use google translator! in poker nothing is certain that I have learned over time! the river lately killing me! I hope your game progress and variance change in your favor

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Thank you. That was just one hand though. I'm actually doing just fine. Averaging about 6BB/hour over around 350 hours.

I understand what you are saying but to me the half pot sized bets show weakness especially in a situation where you have no draws and are just hoping to hit an over card. Another thing is the button has better position on you. Your position in this situation is still not that great and from that you have to take into account that the button is going to play a wider range of hands. I think that your best option would have been a check raise either on the river or somewhere earlier in the hand. It would have gotten you more info if he called or won you the pot if he didnt. It would have saved you money as well.

I think the only place i had a real opportunity to check raise was on the river. After seeing the two EP limpers check twice it would have been a mistake not to fire immediately to shake them loose. I could have checkraised the river but I didn't know that for certain, in fact I was a little surprised when he bet. But the bet was very suspicious and I was correct in it being a bluff. There just weren't many of those that I could beat. Good thoughts though. Thanks for the post.

its an easy fold for me i find u very ambisious putting a cbet on a 4way hand with this kind of board a see him having 66 or 77. u cant represent anything so u cant bluff him, he is betting the river for value and he is putting u on your exact hand or aj, ak.