All-in or Fold (AoF) poker math on GG Network

PokerHint · Apr 16, 2024

In the long run, you will always lose, no matter how well you know how to play. Jackpot wins improve the situation a bit, but still don't make the game profitable. A winrate of 3-5BB losses per 100 hands would be a very good result.

With a small number of hands there is a probability to be in profit, but it is always less than 50% and you will more often find yourself losing than winning. As for the possibility to multiply your bankroll, the chances of achieving this in AoF are less than in French roulette.

Special tricks reduce your losses a bit, but still won't put you in the profit.

Balou1982 · Apr 16, 2024

well said but what is your question?
It is always good to stop playin when you feel there is a begin of a downswing and to reduce your losses to a minimum.
On the other hand i would say it is always the best to play strong and concentrated for short sessions, brakes from poker are always good to come down and ask ya self what you wanna receive from poker.

PokerHint · Apr 16, 2024

The point is not how focused you are or how well you play. The point is that this game is inherently unprofitable, just like roulette in a casino. The math of the game is such that it is systematically impossible to win at it.

black and · Apr 16, 2024

I absolutely agree with you. Tournaments of this format are more of a lottery than poker. I played them for a while and in general my results were close to zero. I realized in time that this is a useless matter and they are not worth attention.

Gallarado777 · Apr 16, 2024

Yes, of course you're right that this is a lottery, but you can even win it if you are very lucky in poker, but of course it will be very difficult for an average player to win there just start playing other MTT tournaments, they will make you a profit and give up all-in fold and you will win

Andyreas · Apr 17, 2024

PokerHint said:
The point is that this game is inherently unprofitable, just like roulette in a casino. The math of the game is such that it is systematically impossible to win at it.

I definitely agree. I only played this game when I got their free tickets as deposit bonus.

In general, this is the type of games which many poker sites are trying to promote in various ways.

mano · Apr 17, 2024

There are tons of regs on this mode at all stakes playing 10+ tables for hours and hours so it must be somehow profitable.
Maybe you need to have 50%+ rakeback on the site + get top3 on leaderboards to make it profitable.
I tried this mode, playing ranges from solver with rake and jackpot rake included(very easy to memorize, after 4 or so hours I could play 8 tables and not struggling with decisions). Played 12k hand today of 2 and 4 dollars and got pretty unlucky, lost 180$ below my EV to players + paid like 300 rake. However I didn't get a single jackpot and apparently the odds of hitting straight flush with both hole cards is something around 1 in 10k hands. So in theory if I did hit the jackpot during my session I would breakeven or slightly in profit and that's before rakeback and leaderboards.
I wish some regs would share their graphs.

PokerHint · Apr 18, 2024

mano said:
There are tons of regs on this mode at all stakes playing 10+ tables for hours and hours so it must be somehow profitable.
Maybe you need to have 50%+ rakeback on the site + get top3 on leaderboards to make it profitable.
I tried this mode, playing ranges from solver with rake and jackpot rake included(very easy to memorize, after 4 or so hours I could play 8 tables and not struggling with decisions). Played 12k hand today of 2 and 4 dollars and got pretty unlucky, lost 180$ below my EV to players + paid like 300 rake. However I didn't get a single jackpot and apparently the odds of hitting straight flush with both hole cards is something around 1 in 10k hands. So in theory if I did hit the jackpot during my session I would breakeven or slightly in profit and that's before rakeback and leaderboards.
I wish some regs would share their graphs.

I have been doing mathematical modeling of this game. I have a more or less complete publication on the subject in three parts. I'm not a forum regular and don't understand how to post the full text. Any link will result in me being blocked immediately. Google the title "Why you shouldn't play All-in or Fold (AoF) on the GG network" (along with the quotes).
P.S. I apologize for the quality of the English, it is not my native language and the translation is automatic.

fundiver199 · Apr 18, 2024

Its definitely a good idea to figure out, if a game is unbeatable due to a combination of rake and structure. This is also the reason, why I stopped playing most single table SnGs on PokerStars after their recent rake increase. And if a game is unbeatable, then it should purely be played for fun and relaxation.

MK_ · Apr 18, 2024

PokerHint said:
I have been doing mathematical modeling of this game. I have a more or less complete publication on the subject in three parts. I'm not a forum regular and don't understand how to post the full text. Any link will result in me being blocked immediately. Google the title "Why you shouldn't play All-in or Fold (AoF) on the GG network" (along with the quotes).
P.S. I apologize for the quality of the English, it is not my native language and the translation is automatic.

....thanks for the title, that was a good read👍

G0930 · Apr 18, 2024

You're absolutely right. Not profitable in the long run.
What can be very profitable however are 4max AoF satties to regular MTTs

fundiver199 · Apr 18, 2024

Andyreas said:
In general, this is the type of games which many poker sites are trying to promote in various ways.

Dont even know, if they still have it, but some years ago PokerStars introduced a 10BB push-or-fold preflop cash game. I played it a few time as a sort of relaxation. But if I remember correctly, it had the same rake as other cash games, which almost certainly made it unbeatable.

mano · Apr 18, 2024

PokerHint said:
I have been doing mathematical modeling of this game. I have a more or less complete publication on the subject in three parts. I'm not a forum regular and don't understand how to post the full text. Any link will result in me being blocked immediately. Google the title "Why you shouldn't play All-in or Fold (AoF) on the GG network" (along with the quotes).
P.S. I apologize for the quality of the English, it is not my native language and the translation is automatic.

Interesting read, however there is still this mystery of huge number of regulars playing this mode. Day in and day out there are same people 10+ tabling it for hours with hundreds of thousands in jackpot wins. And what's funny is that most tables have 2-3 regulars each so they are not even fish hunting or anything. I really doubt they are just hobbyists enjoying this particular game mode.
Also what's interesting that all the regs are hardcore hunting for jackpots. Most of them enter the pot with hands like 53s from any position.

PokerHint · Apr 18, 2024

mano said:
Interesting read, however there is still this mystery of huge number of regulars playing this mode. Day in and day out there are same people 10+ tabling it for hours with hundreds of thousands in jackpot wins. And what's funny is that most tables have 2-3 regulars each so they are not even fish hunting or anything. I really doubt they are just hobbyists enjoying this particular game mode.
Also what's interesting that all the regs are hardcore hunting for jackpots. Most of them enter the pot with hands like 53s from any position.

It is difficult for me to answer this question on its own merits. I have not been able to find or purchase the AoF hand history anywhere. The sources I know of do not parse it.
I can assume that the regulars have additional income from the game. It could be an increased rakeback or even a portion of the rake collected at the table they play at. I don't know about online poker, but in live poker clubs this is a common phenomenon. Such people are taken to organize and maintain the game, especially in new clubs or for new types of games.
The second assumption (I haven't checked it) is that you should play when the jackpot is high - $800,000 or more. This can make the game break even.
As for drawing connectors like 53s this is normal. When modeling Hero GTO, I used hands like that. If played correctly, they can be relatively break-even (considering the jackpot).

jonaselloco · Apr 24, 2024

PokerHint said:
In the long run, you will always lose, no matter how well you know how to play. Jackpot wins improve the situation a bit, but still don't make the game profitable. A winrate of 3-5BB losses per 100 hands would be a very good result.

With a small number of hands there is a probability to be in profit, but it is always less than 50% and you will more often find yourself losing than winning. As for the possibility to multiply your bankroll, the chances of achieving this in AoF are less than in French Roulette.

Special tricks reduce your losses a bit, but still won't put you in the profit.

For God's sake, brother, what a losing answer.

With your statement, there would be no players who could make a living from this beautiful thing that is poker.

At least I'll tell you my case.

I have been playing cash regularly for 8 months. I started in NL2 and it went relatively well but not to what I wanted. Until I started playing PLO2, which I would tell you is a level that I have surpassed and that allows me to make a monthly living from poker.

Now I'm starting to do shots in PLO5 and it's going very well.

Of course, if it is not with study, with perseverance and with discipline and patience you will not achieve anything.

I started with $10 depositing. Today I have a bankroll that is 50 times larger and I have already withdrawn 60 times what I deposited.

That's why unfortunately I can't agree with your assessment at all.

Greetings

PokerHint · Apr 25, 2024

jonaselloco said:
For God's sake, brother, what a losing answer.

With your statement, there would be no players who could make a living from this beautiful thing that is poker.

At least I'll tell you my case.

I have been playing cash regularly for 8 months. I started in NL2 and it went relatively well but not to what I wanted. Until I started playing PLO2, which I would tell you is a level that I have surpassed and that allows me to make a monthly living from poker.

Now I'm starting to do shots in PLO5 and it's going very well.

Of course, if it is not with study, with perseverance and with discipline and patience you will not achieve anything.

I started with $10 depositing. Today I have a bankroll that is 50 times larger and I have already withdrawn 60 times what I deposited.

That's why unfortunately I can't agree with your assessment at all.

Greetings

Thank you for sharing your accomplishments. However, I'm not writing here about poker in general, but specifically about the All-on Fold (AoF) game on the GG Network.

skaterick · Apr 25, 2024

jonaselloco dont read too well ! lol

Poker Orifice · Apr 25, 2024

I have no clue. I've never tried to play it. I don't even know how the format plays out (ie. payout structure, game structure, how many players seated, etc.). It doesn't really interest me.

jonaselloco · Apr 25, 2024

PokerHint said:
Gracias por compartir tus logros. Sin embargo, no estoy escribiendo aquí sobre el póquer en general, sino específicamente sobre el juego All-on Fold (AoF) en GG Network.

Hello I'm sorry

Sorry, I never played that game.

I only play PLO and NLH on GG.

Regards

PokerHint · Apr 26, 2024

jonaselloco said:
Hello I'm sorry

Sorry, I never played that game.

I only play PLO and NLH on GG.

Regards

And rightly so. If your goal is to win money, you should not play AoF GGNetwork.

jonaselloco · Apr 26, 2024

PokerHint said:
And rightly so. If your goal is to win money, you should not play AoF GGNetwork.

From the sound of the allin or fold game it must be quite addictive hahaha

mano · Apr 29, 2024

PokerHint said:
It is difficult for me to answer this question on its own merits. I have not been able to find or purchase the AoF hand history anywhere. The sources I know of do not parse it.
I can assume that the regulars have additional income from the game. It could be an increased rakeback or even a portion of the rake collected at the table they play at. I don't know about online poker, but in live poker clubs this is a common phenomenon. Such people are taken to organize and maintain the game, especially in new clubs or for new types of games.
The second assumption (I haven't checked it) is that you should play when the jackpot is high - $800,000 or more. This can make the game break even.
As for drawing connectors like 53s this is normal. When modeling Hero GTO, I used hands like that. If played correctly, they can be relatively break-even (considering the jackpot).

Could you post the GTO ranges you used for your simulation?

PokerHint · Apr 29, 2024

mano said:
Could you post the GTO ranges you used for your simulation?

This publication is a by-product of my work for the client. Due to the terms of the contract, I can't publish specific hand ranges. However, I can recommend the post on Reddit "A Free Guide To Win at GG's - All In Or Fold", where the author gives GTO ranges that are quite suitable for practical use.
But remember that this is unlikely to lead you to profit.

mano · Apr 29, 2024

PokerHint said:
This publication is a by-product of my work for the client. Due to the terms of the contract, I can't publish specific hand ranges. However, I can recommend the post on Reddit "A Free Guide To Win at GG's - All In Or Fold", where the author gives GTO ranges that are quite suitable for practical use.
But remember that this is unlikely to lead you to profit.

Reason I asked is because I noticed regs using openings that seem odd. For instance they universally shove T2s as SB vs BB from what I noticed, which is not s a thing in any shared charts so I was wondering if such opening was present in the ranges you used when doing your simulation. Coz if not then maybe there are some AoF solutions that are tailoered around jackpot rake/EV and give that necessary edge to be in profit. And again since every day same regs are spamming it there must be profit.

PokerHint · Apr 30, 2024

mano said:
Reason I asked is because I noticed regs using openings that seem odd. For instance they universally shove T2s as SB vs BB from what I noticed, which is not s a thing in any shared charts so I was wondering if such opening was present in the ranges you used when doing your simulation. Coz if not then maybe there are some AoF solutions that are tailoered around jackpot rake/EV and give that necessary edge to be in profit. And again since every day same regs are spamming it there must be profit.

In the GTO model I didn't use hands like T2. In EV model there may well be a situation when SB raise on BB with T2 can be profitable with low all-in percentage of BB player.
About the regulars, I've already written about them. It seems to me that they have some additional income from GG.
f you haven't read the full post, google "Why you shouldn't play All-in or Fold (AoF) on the GG network" (along with the quotes). In it I explain why AoF is not profitable.

All-in or Fold (AoF) poker math on GG Network

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