How to know if you're up against an overpair or 2 big cards?

CashTaker · Feb 7, 2016

Hi,

Can I please get some advice about how to determine if a villain has an overpair or 2 over cards to the board? For example, on a 278 rainbow board, I have 33. Villain bets. How can I know if I'm ahead or behind?

What are some typical lines that indicate villain has an overpair as opposed to just c-betting with 2 over cards?

Thanks,

StorkBoy · Feb 7, 2016

With small pairs as your hand you are looking for to see the flop as cheaply as possible and if you hit a set then you can continue with betting.
On the flop with 278 someone can hit bigger pair, if Villain started his hand with A7 or A8 or even 22 you are beaten. Only if you can see the turn card for free you should continue the hand or if Villain put some small bet like 1bb and you have big stack so it's not problem for you to pay.

Onkorunkus · Feb 7, 2016

^This is not neccesarilly true, just because there are Overcards on the flop doesn't mean your Opponent has hit them. If he was the preflop raiser, and isn't too loose, think about how likely he is to actually have a 7 or 8 in his range. Depending on the opponent and the board, you can call the flop as a bluffcatcher. If he was just cbetting, your opponent will often give up on the turn and you can take the pot by betting / checking it down.

theevildub · Feb 7, 2016

If your heads up with pocket 3s, and Villan bets into you ... how much does he bet ? How many chips does he have behind ?? This is VERY IMPORTANT.

Regardless of what he has, you need to realize that your pocket 3s arent a very good hand at all. if the flop is 278, a 7 beats you, an 8 beats you, ANY OTHER PAIR (except for pocket 3s) beats you. If someone is drawing with 45 or 910, they are on straight draws AND over pair draws. And you have only seen 60% of the board ... there is still 40% to go !!! I personally wouldnt invest a lot into a pot like that unless you have a VERY strong read on your opponent.

If its cheap enough...then call. But dont be getting crazy and trying to be a hero just because you have a pair of 3s. Its a really bad hand that is RARELY profitable.

pescaofish · Feb 7, 2016

CashTaker said:
Hi,

Can I please get some advice about how to determine if a villain has an overpair or 2 over cards to the board? For example, on a 278 rainbow board, I have 33. Villain bets. How can I know if I'm ahead or behind?

What are some typical lines that indicate villain has an overpair as opposed to just c-betting with 2 over cards?

Thanks,

The only way to know for sure is to call or pay if they bet and then you will find out the hard way!

freestocks · Feb 7, 2016

Historical betting patterns of an individual player can indicate weather high cards or high pair.

MoeJurphy · Feb 7, 2016

You cant just tell.. If you have played a volume against this player then you you can pick up betting patterns etc.

Players we have just met we have to take it they are playing ABC poker unless they show us othrwise.

Say we have JKs and the flop comes 269 (rainbow) we can check/call or bet/fold(to a raise)

Anyone is capable of stabbing at a flop with nothing. If the pots small and they bet there's no equity for us to call. If the pots huge with PF action then yeah we are going to want to stick around with our 2 over cards.

MoeJurphy · Feb 7, 2016

But I don't agree with these answers ^^

6bet me · Feb 7, 2016

If the villain is an unknown micro stakes cash game player (2NL, 5NL, 10NL or 25NL) and they are the PFR, then I'll typically call a flop Cbet with 33 on a 278 rainbow board and then check it down after that. If the villain barrels the turn or river then I'm folding. Too often I see players Cbetting the flop with a hand like AK and then giving up after that, so I'm usually willing to call 1 bet with these kind of hands, especially when we have a small (but possible) chance of improving to a set and winning a big pot against an overpair.

limakpl · Feb 8, 2016

Against unknown opponent, i don't think calling 33 will be profitable even if had position. How often, will we make money here ? We will face uncomfortable situation if the villain bets on turn and river as we don't improve often and villain if he doesn't have the best hand now, he has more chance of improving than us or he may pretend (bluff) successfully on any overcard.
At 2nl just keep playing tight preflop and postflop, be patient money will come

rickroll · Feb 8, 2016

CashTaker said:
Hi,

I have 33. Villain bets. How can I know if I'm ahead or behind?

How often would you bet A high and not think it was a bluff even if you figured they missed the board?

You are behind 100% of the time here. You can't look at this hand any differently that if you held 23 for a pair of 2s or AK for ace high, only difference is that AK actually has a decent draw on turn and river. There are even ways for the villain to win a showdown here without even hitting a pair. Same way betting with 23 here would be considered a bluff, so would betting 33 here. Yes they likely missed but your hand has the equivalent showdown value of A high.

One of the biggest leaks a bad player has is not being able to drop a small pocket pair that missed. Heads up is one thing but otherwise remember your villain voluntarily chose to play these cards against you and thus you can infer they are likely decent.

Here are your options.

1. Call a tiny bet if you like and pray you hit that 5% chance of a 3 on the turn.
2. Float the flop and bluff the turn.
3. Fold.
4. Cbet/fold if you were original raiser

Aces2w1n · Feb 9, 2016

You want to know if someone has it or not simple answer.

bet sizing/player type.

wowasenotrusov · Feb 9, 2016

if you are in the position it is possible to equalize the flop and see what will happen next . if out of position it is better to reraise .

txb1gfr0g · Feb 9, 2016

You didn't mention if the villain raised preflop. Since the villain has bet in front of you I'm assuming you are in position. I would like to know if there was any raising preflop, differences in chip stacks, and any general read on the other player. However that being said, I think Rickroll and MoeJurphy had the best replies so far.

I'm in the camp that what I would do greatly depends on my read of the other player.
How have they been playing?
Has the villain taken a beat recently and is possibly still angry about it?
Is the villain usually a tight player or lose player? Even a typically tight player my make a C-bet here with AK or AQ.

Depending on my read of the villain I might raise his C-bet on the flop. If the villain calls or re-raises I know they have something. Nice to know that at the flop instead of possibly paying on two more betting rounds.

I confess, I'm a usually more aggressive player.

-TXB1gFr0g

teepack · Feb 9, 2016

Keep applying pressure. If they were the preflop aggressor, it would not be unreasonable to expect that they have something like AK or AQ or AJ. Put in a post-flop and post-turn bet if it is another low card on the turn. If they keep calling and it gets to the river, you can either check it down, or if you think they have missed again, put out another bet.

Vfranks · Feb 9, 2016

I think you need to put your opponent on a range of hands, instead of just one hand. If you are ahead of his range you can possibly continue. The thing is that there are so many more variables to consider, such as what type of player he is, how big are the stacks, how many people are at the table, etc..

JustBeatIt · Feb 12, 2016

Yeah the best you can hope for is that they had an AK AQ AJ or whatever and missed, and just try to get a read on them through play. Have you seen a hand where they do that or do they usually only do that with Pairs. If anything there is no real point in committing much more money to the pot unless you have a real good read that your pair is good. If you get a free or cheap look at the turn then thats great, but there isnt many times where you have someone beat and even when you do they have good odds to draw against you, and the rest of the time your crushed.

BentleyBoy · Feb 12, 2016

CashTaker...... I hope from these posts you are starting to appreciate that its not just about the cards. There is a whole load of stuff to poker that is eloquently and variously described in the above posts. You probably need to consider each and every one of the posts in your thread to appreciate that having potentially the best cards in your hand isn't all you have to consider!

How to know if you're up against an overpair or 2 big cards?

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