Live Grind: How to Fall Asleep at the Table (Without Getting Caught)

duggs · Sep 3, 2014

Exactly the same, the odds of him continuing to run bad are exactly the same

Mr Sandbag · Sep 3, 2014

/Logan/ said:
because what are the odds he change site and still keep running bad ?

About the same as the odds for a live player who goes to a different casino. It changes nothing. It's the equivalent of changing seats, switching tables, or taking a break. There's no solution for "shifting variance" in your favor.

Logan2 · Sep 3, 2014

in theory yes, in practice not really.

If you are running good in a site and you know are running good because see hitting everything , you are hitting boats/quads or getting a good run of cards, and switch to another site in theory your odds to keep running good are the same, in practice is rare we keep running the same.

Not talking about softness of a site vs other, talking about rng timing distribution.

if i get 5times aces in one site on 10 hands, or hit all my flushes or sets, odds that happen the same on other site are the same, but in reality i could switch the site and still not expecting it happen while the run good could keep in 1st site for several amount of hands.

So if in a downswing and 15bi down, the odds happen the same in the other site are the same, but in reality not really expecting the same because not going to get the same distribution even if both are random.

If i go play on site one and win 10bis not because playerpool but just because good variance, i can go to site two and have the same odds to happen, the reality is that will not expect to happen (it could happen but more likely not).

duggs · Sep 3, 2014

That's all Mumbo jumbo, downswings are a series of unrelated events.

Logan2 · Sep 3, 2014

You can say that but not means is not true. is not the same like switching tables because when run bad it happen in all tables.

How many of us have days where pretty much are card dead for several days?, or not hitting any board, our AK never hitting or our KK always hiting Ace high flops, is expected variance and could happen for several time, but it not happen all the time, if i switch site the odds to happen are the same, it could happen, but most likely will not happen because it usually not happen everyday.

Scourrge is in that point, his run bad keep happening, his boats have the same odds to get crush by bigger boats if switch sites, hands cracked, running bad and fishies hitting his one outer have the same odds, in reality i dont think it happen if switch site because even when those are normal expected bad runs still not see it every day. And even when are unrelated events and variance dont have memory, the true is that we see it, we know when running bad or good, we can decide if play more on those days, we dont know when is going to end, and the odds happening on other site are the same. I can have a week running good and be 20bi's up, i know running good, is expected good variance, but is not comun, so if switch site even when the odds to happen are the same, the reality is that most likely wil not happen rigth away.

People that play different sites can notice this, after a month you got good days in one site in all tables like hitting 20% sets for a week, is expected variance, in long term is going to get even but at least for that month you are running better in one site, next month things going to get even and now running better in the other and bad on the first, It also could happen that run bad on both or run good on both, but it depends on timing, and usually not run the same on both.

So if Scourrge is running bad for several months could be expected variance but not mean that he going to run bad too in the other site in the next 4 months too. It could run bad, it cant be denied, but run normal or good are also posibilities, but if we know in the one playing is bad for several months now, switching should be a improvement because has the chance that at least for this month maybe run good or normal, if also run bad it not make a difference vs how running right now.

duggs · Sep 3, 2014

you are trying to predict luck and measure some kind of flow of run. it violates probability theory pretty heavily. this is as logical as looking for a key sequence to activate a boom switch

Mr Sandbag · Sep 3, 2014

I mean that's like saying if you were betting on coin flips and you were losing a lot that day, you could just use a different coin and you wouldn't flip poorly anymore cuz "what are the odds I lose on both coins?"

Poker is math, period. Everybody runs bad. The only way to "beat" a downswing is to play well. It's impossible to "change luck".

Logan2 · Sep 3, 2014

No, i see it like variance simulation.

We enter our wr, our std deviation, and we run 100 clones of the same guy with same odds for a set number of hands, even when wr is the same we going to see 100 different outcomes for same player, i see it like when running good/bad we are one of the clones with the expected outcome, switching site give the chance that now we can be a different clone with same odds but outcome could be different that what is now and still inside the expected 100 outcomes.

BenjiHustle · Sep 3, 2014

If it works like that, wouldn't you eventually use up all your run good and be running incredi-bad everywhere?

duggs · Sep 3, 2014

all 100 hand samples are the same, i could pull any random 100 hands from my database and its the same thing, where, when and which site are irrelevant, EV has no memory, EV doesn't even out, EV doesn't have trends

Logan2 · Sep 3, 2014

BenjiHustle said:
If it works like that, wouldn't you eventually use up all your run good and be running incredi-bad everywhere?

No, because im not saying you going to run good in the other site, just changing the actual flow how running now, you could run worst or better, or BE, the difference is that could change something.

duggs said:
all 100 hand samples are the same, i could pull any random 100 hands from my database and its the same thing, where, when and which site are irrelevant, EV has no memory, EV doesn't even out, EV doesn't have trends

Well in theory yes but in reality no.

If ev have no memory and doesn't even out then if run bad today, by that logic means could run bad tomorrow, and then the next day and if everyday is a new day could run bad for eternity and never win again because there is no memory, and could have one million buyins underev, same the other way, i could run good for millions of hands and be millions bi above ev, but in reality this not happen, if this was true then poker was 100% luck and be just variance what at the end decide if we are winners or not.

By that logic no matter what Scourrge do or how good is he, there is a chance he never wins again, because ev not have memory, so if he have 4 months running bad there is a chance he run bad for next 5years. (dont be scare you going to run good in exactly 8 days

)

So why we even bother in study the game?, then is better to be lucky than be good no?.

Logan2 · Sep 3, 2014

Just to be clear i blame you Scourrge for all this because every post is about keep running bad, steal a graph and lie and just tell runing hot now

micromachine · Sep 3, 2014

Duggs is right, how well you run in every hand or every session is not influenced by the previous, they are all independent events. So changing sites won't make a difference, the probability of running well or badly in the next session will be the same.

The coin flipping example is a good one to go back to, say flipping heads is running good and flipping tails is running bad, if you flip tails 6 times in a row you are running bad but next flip still has exactly 50% chance of being heads or tails, the outcome of the previous flips is irrelevant. And changing coins (analogous to changing sites) doesn't help, you're still just as likely to flip tails again. You mention if EV has no memory then can't we run bad forever? Theoretically yes you could run bad forever but it would be extremely unlikely over a huge sample. Flipping tails 6 times in a row is fairly unlikely (1/64 chance it will happen) and longer periods of run bad are much more unlikely, flipping 20 tails in a row for example has a 1/1048586 chance of happening. So very long periods of running bad are possible, just much less likely.

Matt Vaughan · Sep 3, 2014

Holy crap.

Logan2 · Sep 3, 2014

micromachine said:
Duggs is right, how well you run in every hand or every session is not influenced by the previous, they are all independent events. So changing sites won't make a difference, the probability of running well or badly in the next session will be the same.

The coin flipping example is a good one to go back to, say flipping heads is running good and flipping tails is running bad, if you flip tails 6 times in a row you are running bad but next flip still has exactly 50% chance of being heads or tails, the outcome of the previous flips is irrelevant. And changing coins (analogous to changing sites) doesn't help, you're still just as likely to flip tails again. You mention if EV has no memory then can't we run bad forever? Theoretically yes you could run bad forever but it would be extremely unlikely over a huge sample. Flipping tails 6 times in a row is fairly unlikely (1/64 chance it will happen) and longer periods of run bad are much more unlikely, flipping 20 tails in a row for example has a 1/1048586 chance of happening. So very long periods of running bad are possible, just much less likely.

Agree on bold but you guys dont get my point, you MM have a good run on 888 at first when switch yes? later run bad and decide get back and focus on Stars, not just because tilted and low BR the why is not important.

My point is the odds we run good or bad if play on Stars or 888 are the same, however we don't run the same on both sites at the same time, you was not running good on Stars when running good on 888, is the same for everyone.

Just to give a example, im running 2bi above ev on FTP, 2bi under ev on Stars and 3bi under ev on 888, so even when odds are the same not running the same on each site, so my point was that, switching sites have the same odds but still most likely dont run the same, if you are running like crap in one site, odds can be the same but most likely not going to run the same in the other, No matter if probability is the same just try and tell me what you see.

Matt Vaughan · Sep 3, 2014

I don't have the energy to explain more fully why that's wrong.

But continue with the coin flipping example. Are you saying if I flip two different coins at once it's not possible for them to be the same? Because that's what it sounds like you're saying.

If I went on a run of 10 heads in a row, and am trying to decide whether to switch coins, why would I expect it to matter? The coins are effectively identical. Just like the RNG's are effectively identical. It's still always 50% chance of heads and 50% chance tails. Every time.

Mr Sandbag · Sep 3, 2014

If you are running 6 BI below EV over 6000 hands on 888, you are most likely correct that you will "run differently" if you go play at Stars for 6000 hands. But that has absolutely nothing to do with changing sites and everything to do with the random nature of the game.

Mr Sandbag · Sep 3, 2014

Playing another 6000 hands on 888 would accomplish the same exact thing.

DunningKruger · Sep 4, 2014

Well I mean the logic (or lack thereof) being used by Logan is complete crap obv, but it's true that switching to a new, potentially softer player pool can perhaps turn one's fortunes. Whenever I join a new network (back when there were new networks to join) I usually crush hard for a week or two just by barreling like a monkey until eventually everyone else compiles stats and such. Nothing to do with variance ofc.

BenjiHustle · Sep 4, 2014

DunningKruger said:
Well I mean the logic (or lack thereof) being used by Logan is complete crap obv, but it's true that switching to a new, potentially softer player pool can perhaps turn one's fortunes. Whenever I join a new network (back when there were new networks to join) I usually crush hard for a week or two just by barreling like a monkey until eventually everyone else compiles stats and such. Nothing to do with variance ofc.

They say Bovada's the softest. However, keep in mind that I get by on Carbon, so it must not be too tough.

:dontknow:

Logan2 · Sep 4, 2014

Scourrge said:
I don't have the energy to explain more fully why that's wrong.

But continue with the coin flipping example. Are you saying if I flip two different coins at once it's not possible for them to be the same? Because that's what it sounds like you're saying.

If I went on a run of 10 heads in a row, and am trying to decide whether to switch coins, why would I expect it to matter? The coins are effectively identical. Just like the RNG's are effectively identical. It's still always 50% chance of heads and 50% chance tails. Every time.

Yes, but if we dont talk about only 10 flips but about 100 flips (your 4 months) and on those you lose 90 times, you will be sick of keep losing, so at least i will like to change the coin no matter if result could be the same with other.

BenjiHustle · Sep 4, 2014

"Wash those cards!"

I remember the first time I heard that playing live. Sounds similar to the switching sites suggestion.

Tbh, I have a bit of belief in Logan's point. I believe that a change of sites could be helpful. If nothing else, the ability to compile stats is kind of a big deal.

The problem is that Carbon and Bovada are not comparable in traffic nor ability to put in volume since there's no zoom/rush/snap option.

Logan2 · Sep 4, 2014

Anyway, sorry for derail your thread so much

Logan2 · Sep 4, 2014

yep, i see people asking for change decks live all the time, the odds are the same is just you want to change something like if that change your luck.

Matt Vaughan · Sep 4, 2014

Not a problem, Logan, I just think it's important to be very specific if you're talking about a mental difference or an actual "luck difference."

B/c sure, I can buy into the mental concept. Not in my particular case, but in general. Not in my case because at this point I've been losing so long, and in so many different venues (live at different casinso, cash games AND tournaments, Bovada, different limits, etc) that the mental aspect of changing sites would be nonexistent for me.

@DK: Yeah, but Bovada is the softest by far, AND it's anonymous... So in theory I shouldn't even run into the whole "compiling stats" problem.

... Though I do have this theory that everyone can see my hole cards... Hmmm....

Live Grind: How to Fall Asleep at the Table (Without Getting Caught)

duggs

Killing me softly

Mr Sandbag

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Logan2

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duggs

Killing me softly

Logan2

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duggs

Killing me softly

Mr Sandbag

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Logan2

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BenjiHustle

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duggs

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Logan2

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Logan2

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micromachine

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Matt Vaughan

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Logan2

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Matt Vaughan

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Mr Sandbag

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Mr Sandbag

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DunningKruger

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BenjiHustle

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Logan2

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