Starting Hand Winning Percentage

fx20736 · Apr 9, 2011

Question:

If you have a starting hand where you have a high winning percentage but are an overall money loser with it (over a large sample), does that mean you just play that hand badly?

I win with AKs 75.21% of the time I play it yet I have lost $ 35.78 total in 363 times dealt for a loss of .68 BB on average every time.

Most of those losses are when my final hand was a High Card so I'm guessing I lose with AKs so much because I am shoving too much.

any other thoughts on this?

baudib1 · Apr 9, 2011

small sample size

yes, AK is usually going to be more profitable when you hit than when you don't

fx20736 · Apr 9, 2011

baudib1 said:
small sample size

yes, AK is usually going to be more profitable when you hit than when you don't

It's been the same for me with AKs for the past 400k hands.

Jagsti · Apr 9, 2011

AKo and AKs should be in the top 8 hands at least, for total $ won ainec.

Poof · Apr 9, 2011

You lost $35 bucks but how much have you won with it?
You have to account for variance. AA is the hand that I have won the most money with, but also the hand I have lost the most with, which is because it is probably one of the only hands I am willing to shove out there.

Jagsti · Apr 9, 2011

Just looked at my database for this year:

Ako = 75% winrate, 4th top earner, 127bb/100

Aks = 77% winrate, 14th top earner, 122bb/100 but I'm running disgustingly below ev with that.

WVHillbilly · Apr 9, 2011

Jagsti said:
Just looked at my database for this year:

Ako = 75% winrate, 4th top earner, 127bb/100

Aks = 77% winrate, 14th top earner, 122bb/100 but I'm running disgustingly below ev with that.

Look at your WR not actual winnings. You can compare AKs to AKo by looking at overall $$s because you get AKo 3 times as often.

Jagsti · Apr 9, 2011

WVHillbilly said:
Look at your WR not actual winnings. You can compare AKs to AKo by looking at overall $$s because you get AKo 3 times as often.

6th for AKo, 4th for AKs

Jagsti · Apr 9, 2011

Please dont post such rubbish again!

WVHillbilly · Apr 9, 2011

Jagsti said:
Please dont post such rubbish again!

Don't be so hard on yourself Jay.

fx20736 · Apr 9, 2011

Jagsti said:
AKo and AKs should be in the top 8 hands at least, for total $ won ainec.

I used to do very well with AKo but have always lost with AKs. I did go through a stretch of PSnl where I got crucified, sodomized and torched so I think there is some serious variance going on.

When I make a pair with AKs/AKo I have lost $ 57.73.

Specifically, though with AKs I consistently lose money with it even though my winning percentage is high. I think that is because I shove more easily with AKs than AKo. My variance for AKs is even worse. With AKs I have made a Flush exactly twice. When I made the 2 Flushes I lost once to a Full House and made .50 the other time for a total amt won when I make a flush with AKs of -1.21.

And before you think I would have made more flushes had I stayed in the hand to the River 81 out of the 183 times I saw the flop.

Further analysis shows that I flopped a 4 flush 18 times, almost exactly within expectation, but flopping a 4 flush I should make a flush 7 times if I stay to the River. Bear in mind, of those 18 times I flopped a 4 flush with AKs I NEVER folded on the Turn.

Is anyone else that unlucky with a specific hand that has a high EV or is it just me?

WVHillbilly · Apr 9, 2011

Are those seriously your only winning hands???????

fx20736 · Apr 9, 2011

WVHillbilly said:
Are those seriously your only winning hands???????

No,

Filtered just for pocket pairs, AK/AQ

WVHillbilly · Apr 9, 2011

Ok. Scared me there for a minute.

fx20736 · Apr 9, 2011

WVHillbilly said:
Ok. Scared me there for a minute.

Here are non pocket pairs and not AK/AQ

LuckyChippy · Apr 9, 2011

You need to figure out why and how you're playing them bad, seriously.

rssurfer54 · Apr 10, 2011

I lose with ako and aqs :-/

Jagsti · Apr 10, 2011

I think the problem maybe FX that with AK you usually have to play quite aggressively as your relying on a lot of fold equity. If your playing it passively then your not gonna do very well imo.

fx20736 · Apr 10, 2011

Jagsti said:
I think the problem maybe FX that with AK you usually have to play quite aggressively as your relying on a lot of fold equity. If your playing it passively then your not gonna do very well imo.

With AKs I am super aggro, trying to get it in. Unfortunately, if you look at my charts. graphs, etc. above you'll see I'm amazingly unlucky with it.

Jagsti · Apr 10, 2011

fx20736 said:
With AKs I am super aggro, trying to get it in. Unfortunately, if you look at my charts. graphs, etc. above you'll see I'm amazingly unlucky with it.

If your under ev with it then you dont need to worry about it. It will all come good

lennysmalls · Apr 17, 2011

Hey guys CC newbie here. What are you using to get that info. on your hand history?
Thanks

fx20736 · Apr 17, 2011

lennysmalls said:
Hey guys CC newbie here. What are you using to get that info. on your hand history?
Thanks

Pokertracker 3.

lennysmalls · Apr 17, 2011

Thanks fx.
What other tools do you experts recommend that I should be using to improve my game? I play mostly NLHE tourneys and PLO cash.
Thanks guys

fx20736 · Apr 17, 2011

lennysmalls said:
Thanks fx.
What other tools do you experts recommend that I should be using to improve my game? I play mostly NLHE tourneys and PLO cash.
Thanks guys

make sure you download Pokerstove to calculate equity against an assumed range.
http://www.pokerstove.com/

lennysmalls · Apr 18, 2011

Thanks again fx. I just got pokerstove.
Tried to get pokertracker 3 but the site wanted me to download an affiliated pokersite's software and make a deposit. Also stated that an existing account did not count.
Any suggestions? Is there a similar type of software that is free and doesn't require me to make a deposit?

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