Which style of play is the lowest variance (100bb)?

Naturally I am asking because I am on a massive downswing

LD1977 said:

Naturally I am asking because I am on a massive downswing

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PLaying good poker IMO

The more blinds you have, the bigger edge you have, thus less variance.

EDIT: Oh, just read it again, thought you meant big blind wise. I think obviously being a TAG is going to have less variance than being a complete LAG taking high variance spots all the time. Take isildur1 for example, his variance is huge due to his style of play.

Probably being a nit is the lowest variance. However I don't exactly think you should change your style if it's opposed to your natural style of play.

I have actually switched between several strategies/styles although I guess the preflop stats remain moderately stable.

But even when I was winning comfortably (best month at 10NL) I used to have big swings and I would gladly sacrifice some of the win rate if I could put in bigger volume with less variance.

Downswings suck. No question. But they are a part of poker life.

I'm don't think trying to minimize variance is necessarily the same as maximizing profitability though is it? That thought already has my mind twisted and tapping out...

I'd be more concerned with profitability though. Being rolled sufficiently to handle the swings seems like a good idea to me if it's the more profitable.

Just looking for less variance might be a pretty big leak? I'm not stating as fact, just hypothesizing.

I think I have some advice to offer concerning the nit/low variance style.



Play really tight, and use position wisely. I don't really understand stats all that well, but I have a VPIP of around 20-21% on 6-max. That is what I mean by tight.

Stop limping your SB (I don't know if you do). If you don't have something good, fold the SB.

Don't c-bet bluff into more than 2 opponents, and don't c-bet bluff wet boards unless HU (even then, yuck).

Don't triple barrel into sticky opponents on dry-ish boards.

Give opponents credit when they show aggression on turn and river (in micro-stakes anyways). Don't call down "hoping" your hand is good. If you have that bad feeling, listen to it.

Don't bluff stations.

Semi bluff less in 3-way and multi-way pots.

Stay away from K-Jo, K-Qo, Q-Jo OOP. Those are some of the biggest trouble hands that everyone plays. If you want to play them, do it with position. Even then, be careful. Suited versions of these hand play much better.




These are just some suggestions. Understand there are no absolutes in poker, like "never" or "always". Every spot is different. Dynamics change things.

I am just offering some tips that I feel have helped my game.

Edit: I only considered this now. I play on Bovada where it is anonymous, and Zone also. There are no reads. So my carefully worded post probably doesn't apply to you anyways. It might be exploitable in your game. I really do mean well though....

Nah because when I hit heavy downswing I:

1) take a break to cool down
2) analyze the downswing to see WTF is going on
3) reduce number of tables to pay more attention

All this hits volume, and hard. I have a relatively deep BR and nitty BRM but still lesser variance = less stress = much larger volume.

:dontknow:Best advice i could give you (although i dont know if its optimal play), is to try to avoid getting it in with draws. Try some small ball poker and try to get it in when your way ahead. If your not way ahead but your probably "just" ahead then try some check calling lines for pot control.

This is like the only thing i could think of that would help you avoid massive variance.

Problem is that variance goes two ways, meaning by controlling your losses, this will probably also take its toll on your winnings/winrate as well. :dontknow:

If you have a deep BR and nitty BRM then you should never be looking for ways to decrease variance....Variance is your friend that you can use to crush lesser beings.

Attempting to decrease variance will almost assuredly lead you to playing a far less +EV style.

How big of a downswing are you on?

Currently 12.8 buyins (1.75 buyin under EV but that is nothing) over almost 8k hands.

Most of it it variance but I spewed some in frustration too (which is relatively uncommon for me).

Thing is, before this happened I was up 9 buyins (5 buyins over EV) over 27k hands, not great but at least above zero.

Get coaching.

It's a funny thing with a lot of people for some reason. If you have a goal to do well at something, make a detailed plan on how to get there. Coaching can bend the learning curve so far in your favor, instead of grinding 200k+ hands that maybe you win a little bit, that you could have won much larger.

Make an investment in yourself. Make a plan that has a long term result that will yield the highest possible return.

I spent 1250$/hr on coaching when I was going from mid to high stakes back in the day. Sure, maybe another 300k hands or so I could have figured some of these things out, but overall it was the best thing I could have done. I let someone in that was a very good player to really go through my game with a fine tooth comb. I got a new perspective that I couldn't have gotten on my own.

I guess the sum of my advice is: Don't be a life nit. Invest in your goals so you can have the best possible success.

ramdeebam said:

The more blinds you have, the bigger edge you have, thus less variance.

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I know this wasn't the part relevant to OP's question, but fwiw I don't think it's as simple as saying if your edge is positive, then the more blinds you have, the bigger your edge, and therefore less variance, since:

- Most people don't know how to play deep (so your edge may or may not be better when deeper).
- Depends on if you mean variance per stack-size or variance per big blinds. Deeper stacks means 2 outers tend to hurt a heck of a lot more. Etc. Just ask duggs.

baudib1 said:

If you have a deep BR and nitty BRM then you should never be looking for ways to decrease variance....Variance is your friend that you can use to crush lesser beings.

Attempting to decrease variance will almost assuredly lead you to playing a far less +EV style.

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Agree most with this, and bold is pretty much word for word what I was going to say.

Well what i've came to realize that in order to keep the variance at a minimum it basically comes down to two very simple stupid things.. In spots where you know you have them beat getting all the money you can out of them.. comes down to how well you know the player your against andthe second is just getting out of hands earlier when you are going to get beat.. if you sense your behind get out.. because if your hand makes but he was stronger then you thought well thats a stack costing mistake.. Idk just my thoughts

blanco1400 said:

Well what i've came to realize that in order to keep the variance at a minimum it basically comes down to two very simple stupid things.. In spots where you know you have them beat getting all the money you can out of them.. comes down to how well you know the player your against andthe second is just getting out of hands earlier when you are going to get beat.. if you sense your behind get out.. because if your hand makes but he was stronger then you thought well thats a stack costing mistake.. Idk just my thoughts

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Neither of the things you describe have anything to do with reducing variance. They are simply trying to play good poker.

Playing with shorter stacks DOES increase variance because you get committed to the pot much more easily. 1 pair type hands increase in relative value and becoming stacking hands and your opponents will also need to play wider ranges for stacks. With deeper stacks, then unless you are playing badly you don't need to go crazy with marginally strong hands since you aren't necessarily going to pot commit yourself so easily.

Lower variance = tighter. Obv there is a point where that becomes exploitable. Probably something like 17/13 is pretty low variance but still not awful. But you don't necessarily want to play low variance, just play stakes where you can handle the variance. In the end you will move up faster

As several people have already said, don't worry about variance, just work on your game. Increase your winrate and you'll have fewer and less sever downswings even if your style of play increase actual variance.

Sure, I know about math that says higher win rate = less variance in general. As I noted above, variance decreases my volume, breaks my rhythm etc. so I would gladly tone it down in exchange for a minor loss in winrate.

I am sure some styles are by default less swingy and that any style can be nicely profitable (it is visible in stats/graphs of various winning players).

loafes said:

Playing with shorter stacks DOES increase variance because you get committed to the pot much more easily. 1 pair type hands increase in relative value and becoming stacking hands and your opponents will also need to play wider ranges for stacks. With deeper stacks, then unless you are playing badly you don't need to go crazy with marginally strong hands since you aren't necessarily going to pot commit yourself so easily.

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Again, it's not really that simple. Deeper stacks also means that unless you're playing at like 10nl or below, people will understand they can put money in wider preflop because of larger SPR. Implied odds are huge (this doesn't mean no one puts money in though). 3bet and 4bet pots won't go to the river as often, true, but there will be more of them, and those are big pots even without getting to the river. (How often do you get to the turn or river in a 200bb pot and then fold if you're not playing deep? What if you are deep?)

Note: I'm not actually saying that deeper play is higher variance. But I definitely don't think you can reduce it down to one statement regarding pot commitment.