2 Pokers in 10 hands - 3 players

Ivan Basic

Ivan Basic

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  • #1
What are the odds of witnessing two pokers in just ten hands ?

So, I've just played 1$ wish blast on 888poker.

I haven't won, but it was a very peculiar tournament...
 

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austral

austral

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  • #2
Seeing two of those hands in only 10 hands

We use a binomial approximation:

  • p = 0.00024 per hand
  • n = 10
Probability of exactly 2:

[
\binom{10}{2} p^2 (1 - p)^8
]

Since p is very small:

[
\approx 45 \times (0.00024)^2
]

[
\approx 2.6 \times 10^{-6}
]

0.00026%

Approximately: 1 in 380,000 sessions of 10 hands.
 
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