Is poker more luck in the short term or skill in the long term?

lapgame · May 2, 2025

I see a lot of people saying that in poker luck influences the short term, but skill prevails over time.

Do you agree with that? Have you ever had phases where everything went wrong even if you played the right one?
How do you maintain confidence in your game even when the results don't seem to keep up?

dorsk · May 2, 2025

lapgame said:
I see a lot of people saying that in poker luck influences the short term, but skill prevails over time.

Do you agree with that? Have you ever had phases where everything went wrong even if you played the right one?
How do you maintain confidence in your game even when the results don't seem to keep up?

The guy who disagrees with the luck equation is locked up at The Funny Farm.
Confidence happens when you’re in a Zen state of mind.
Detachment is dollars 💸

amonlima · May 2, 2025

Poker is a mathematical game, meaning the more profitable plays you make over a long period of time, the closer your profit will be to the average ROI percentage your plays indicate.

mssmotilda · May 2, 2025

lapgame said:
I see a lot of people saying that in poker luck influences the short term, but skill prevails over time.

Do you agree with that? Have you ever had phases where everything went wrong even if you played the right one?
How do you maintain confidence in your game even when the results don't seem to keep up?

Even in the short term, you can't do without skill.

pentazepam · May 2, 2025

Put an AND instead of an OR in the title, and you have answered your own question:

"Is poker more luck in the short term AND skill in the long term?"

Wega85 · May 2, 2025

for long term you also need discipline and money management

alucaa · May 3, 2025

Long-term skill is better, over time that skill will pay off, but I'm not going to lie that it leaves me a little annoyed when I take a bad beat playing with my friends who don't know how to play a lot of poker hahahaha

I Live Poker · May 3, 2025

lapgame said:
I see a lot of people saying that in poker luck influences the short term, but skill prevails over time.

Do you agree with that? Have you ever had phases where everything went wrong even if you played the right one?
How do you maintain confidence in your game even when the results don't seem to keep up?

I was thinking about this yesterday, I think both things are true, and also the opposite, you can do everything right and everything go wrong, especially depending on the room you play in.

But the nature of poker does involve a lot of luck. Think about how hard it is to win a tournament where 1k players, 5k players are giving their best and trying to win, I also think that when technique, tactics, focus, mentality and all the attributes that a good player needs, are equal, what will define who is the winner is luck.
So the best we can do is try to extract 100% of what is in our control, but that is no guarantee of being a winner, this is just to minimize losses, to be as ready as possible for when luck embraces you.

fernandofcp · May 6, 2025

In poker, you need a bit of luck. But the technique always prevails in the short, medium and long term. If you rely solely on luck, you will be more successful in the lottery.

eberetta1 · May 6, 2025

My belief is have someone that sponsors you if you want to break ahead. You have to beat entry fees which are seldom mentioned, so we are already at a 10 % disadvantage before we start a game.

Even basketball players, football players, tennis players, etc. make more outside the game, than their salary from the game. So poker is no different if it is a sport.

Bluffmastr2 · May 6, 2025

lapgame said:
I see a lot of people saying that in poker luck influences the short term, but skill prevails over time.

Do you agree with that? Have you ever had phases where everything went wrong even if you played the right one?
How do you maintain confidence in your game even when the results don't seem to keep up?

i would say first thing is skill because without skill you would not know how to play or bet . and the you also need to be some lucky

YLAN · May 6, 2025

I Live Poker said:
I was thinking about this yesterday, I think both things are true, and also the opposite, you can do everything right and everything go wrong, especially depending on the room you play in.
But the nature of poker does involve a lot of luck. Think about how hard it is to win a tournament where 1k players, 5k players are giving their best and trying to win, I also think that when technique, tactics, focus, mentality and all the attributes that a good player needs, are equal, what will define who is the winner is luck.
So the best we can do is try to extract 100% of what is in our control, but that is no guarantee of being a winner, this is just to minimize losses, to be as ready as possible for when luck embraces you.

well said on this organism called poker. i agree

except on...

I Live Poker said:
especially depending on the room you play in.

my take is that i still believe that all sites use a fair rng software if that is what you allude. just that there are different players that play the sites. like i cannot play pp, wpt, 888 so i just play gg & ps. you may play differently on diff sites based on how the players play. seems to me like i tend to play more aggressively on gg than ps & so the tendency is that i see a lot more bad beats on gg than ps. perhaps its just me.

lapgame said:
I see a lot of people saying that in poker luck influences the short term, but skill prevails over time.

Do you agree with that? Have you ever had phases where everything went wrong even if you played the right one?

i do not agree mainly because of terminology...
luck influences the short term ----- luck is not selective & influences short term & long term.
skill prevails over time ----- skill improves over time through experience but there is no guarantee it will prevail as you only improved where other players already improved. who prevails? the most lucky?

lapgame said:
How do you maintain confidence in your game even when the results don't seem to keep up?

You don't. When results are not to satisfaction, understand the leaks & tweak what can be tweaked. Maintain confidence in your game when you have patched your leaks but still gets unlucky.

thwenth1983 · May 6, 2025

"Good morning, everyone!

Winning at poker in the short term by relying purely on luck has a very low probability. You can find videos of people who got lucky and hit the jackpot in Spins & Go, but the odds of that happening are extremely slim.

On the other hand, if you focus on skill and dedication, your chances of long-term success are close to 100%. If you study and practice consistently, you’re almost guaranteed to earn sustainable profits over time."**

Igor G · May 6, 2025

I definitely think that in the long run, our skills will be a more important factor. Although at the same time, we need to understand that luck is also an element that we cannot do without. In any case, if you have long-term goals, you have to work step by step, day by day, to achieve them and ignore local difficulties.

I Live Poker · May 6, 2025

YLAN said:
well said on this organism called poker. i agree

except on...

my take is that i still believe that all sites use a fair rng software if that is what you allude. just that there are different players that play the sites. like i cannot play pp, wpt, 888 so i just play gg & ps. you may play differently on diff sites based on how the players play. seems to me like i tend to play more aggressively on gg than ps & so the tendency is that i see a lot more bad beats on gg than ps. perhaps its just me.

i do not agree mainly because of terminology...
luck influences the short term ----- luck is not selective & influences short term & long term.
skill prevails over time ----- skill improves over time through experience but there is no guarantee it will prevail as you only improved where other players already improved. who prevails? the most lucky?

You don't. When results are not to satisfaction, understand the leaks & tweak what can be tweaked. Maintain confidence in your game when you have patched your leaks but still gets unlucky.

I'm not saying they're unfair. I have a question for you, and apparently even you've answered it: do you think RNGs between different rooms work the same way?

john_entony · May 6, 2025

Almost all the time I lose to opponents who have less chances. But that's okay, because I realize that I played correctly and sooner or later my results will please me. What am I thinking about defeats? It's hard in the first 5 minutes, but then I keep moving on.

I Live Poker · May 6, 2025

@YLAN

If the answer is yes, I notice the difference in patterns: How I win much more in another room playing the same way, while in another I only face bad beats. I ask: how do we notice specific patterns of equity execution, as well as other patterns of card opening and excessive bad beats?
How can randomness differ from room to room?
Why, even if you play the same way in different rooms for many years, do you still win only in a specific room?
Have you gotten used to the random patterns of a specific room?

istbno · May 6, 2025

Poker is largely influenced by luck in the short term, as even the best hands can lose due to the randomness of the cards, and weaker players can occasionally win simply by getting lucky. However, over the long term, skill becomes the dominant factor. Skilled players make mathematically sound decisions, manage their bankroll wisely, read opponents effectively, and consistently apply strategies that give them an edge. While short-term variance can be frustrating or rewarding, depending on the outcome, it is the long-term discipline, knowledge, and decision-making that determine a player's success in poker.

Rmi · May 6, 2025

With luck you don't come to anything, it's always better to learn

YLAN · May 6, 2025

I Live Poker said:
I'm not saying they're unfair. I have a question for you, and apparently even you've answered it: do you think RNGs between different rooms work the same way?

No. I think they do not "work" the same way as the source codes must be different but I believe they're all fair RNG that are unpredictable.

I Live Poker said:
If the answer is yes, I notice the difference in patterns: How I win much more in another room playing the same way, while in another I only face bad beats. I ask: how do we notice specific patterns of equity execution, as well as other patterns of card opening and excessive bad beats?
How can randomness differ from room to room?
Why, even if you play the same way in different rooms for many years, do you still win only in a specific room?
Have you gotten used to the random patterns of a specific room?

Any evidence of a pattern would cause the site to be shutdown. That's the core of the game.
RNG must not have any patterns as they are suppose to be random. Theory is the difference in results between rooms maybe due to the different styles of game play by regular players.

10gerka · May 6, 2025

That's right, my friend, it will also depend on who you are playing with. If they are really good or bad, luck will always be present in the short term, but in the long term that will be eliminated.

888NOX888 · May 7, 2025

In any business, the main thing is to be purposeful, of course, skill is a very important factor, but all means are good for winning.

R.Melnyk77 · May 7, 2025

I agree that skill is more important in the long run. At least my skill is a factor that directly depends on me and I know that if I am patient, disciplined and persistent enough, it is likely that I will become a player who earns an income from the game.

I Live Poker · May 7, 2025

YLAN said:
No. I think they do not "work" the same way as the source codes must be different but I believe they're all fair RNG that are unpredictable.

Any evidence of a pattern would cause the site to be shutdown. That's the core of the game.
RNG must not have any patterns as they are suppose to be random. Theory is the difference in results between rooms maybe due to the different styles of game play by regular players.

Well, if you tell me that they don't work the same way, and you're also saying that in your opinion they are "unpredictable" and not random, you partly agree with me.
Rain, weather, wind, nature are unpredictable, however we can predict weather fluctuations nowadays, with the various technological resources that capture patterns, with incredible accuracy, however, there is a very small margin of error in the prediction, but nature is not random, it is just unpredictable.
Do you want more evidence than this conversation? also from the various reports of players, I have also studied a lot about this as you well know, and I have already published a study here that I did not continue, due to the cancellation, a mockery towards me. This part about the field being different, we know very well that it is not a childish appeal, or even naive, considering that most rooms cover a global field, or even a very wide variety of nationalities, not to mention the spread of poker that happened during the pandemic, which attracted and increased the flow of players, attracting even more regular players, communication and dissemination technology, so don't come telling me that the fields are different, because Regs play in all rooms, according to the availability of each country, of course.

I Live Poker · May 7, 2025

But there is always hope, new rooms appear, new RNGs, new fair leaders who want to do things the right way, without thinking only about money.

Is poker more luck in the short term or skill in the long term?

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