How to avoid losing against 3kind with AA pocket ???

Hi guys,

My question is what do you recommend to avoid the following situation postflop, and save the stack, shoving with AA pocket hands, being Preflop Agressor?

Preflop:
Me: MP Position - AA (open raise)
Villain: Late Position - 44 pocket hands (calls)

Post flop:

Me: Continuation Bet - top pair and no flush or straightdraw project
villain: Re raise
Me: SHOVE all;in

The result: Me losing all the stack

What was the effective stack size? Without this crucial information, a hand can not be analysed properly.

fundiver199 said:

What was the effective stack size? Without this crucial information, a hand can not be analysed properly.

Click to expand...

I NEED TO STUDY MORE! LOL

I remember that hand:

me: 40BB
Villain: almost 2x my stack.

Thanks for the advice!!

Well, that happens all the time, and there's nothing you can do about it unless you hit your miraculous 9% 2 outer. I had 77 yesterday, flop : 7K6, I bet, vilain called. Turn : A. I bet, he shoved, I called. He had AA and had only limped preflop ! Some people do hit their 2 outs. That's poker. Randomness at its best.

fundiver199 said:

What was the effective stack size? Without this crucial information, a hand can not be analysed properly.

Click to expand...

From what I've read on pot equity, fundiver is correct. With AA, you're going to lose to an underpair 20% of the time. Bad beats are going to happen, so your main goal should be to win more money in four AA hands (80% of the time) than you lose in your bad beat (20% of the time).

Also you can account for other factors like how loose/tight the player is, the implied odds, and stack sizes.

All depends on your stack compared to big blind. If you have like 20 BB it's easy call. If you have for example 50BB, you'd have to make some calculations.

Let's say you raise by 3BB and he calls. With the blinds there is 7.5BB in the pot. If he goes all-in for 47BB, there will be 54,5BB in the pot and you will have to pay 47BB to win a total of 101.5BB. You need to win 46% of the time to make it profitable.

Now we don't know anything about our enemy but we can make some assumptions. He didn't re-raise so he doesn't have high pocker pair. He can have smaller overpair to the board like 10-10 and that's basically it, because with J-J he would probbably raise. He can also have a hand like A-9. All other hands are sets (two-pairs are also very unlikely on that board). There is no flush draw on the board and straight draw is pretty unlikely - he'd have to call your raise with 10-8. Of course he could have a bluff. Let's give 20% to a bluff, where you are about 90% favorite (two random cards or a pair). About 30% to 10-10 or A-9 where you are also about 80% favorite. And 50% to a set, where you have about 10% to win. Now we need to multiply the chances: 0.3*0.8+0.2*0.9+0.5*0.1=47%~46%. A close call!

Now you can see that this calculation will depend a lot on stack sizes (46% here) and on the board (47% here). If you see possible flush draws or there are more possible overpairs, you should be willing more to call, because his hand range is greater. Also if he re-raised you pre-flop, you should be more willing to call because he could have hands like KK, QQ, AK in his range and also pot odds would be better.

So although at first these kind of sitiations look like pure guess - you can actually make a rational decision. With your 40BB size stack it looks slightly more like a call than fold but with 100BB stack I would have folded.

JIM70201 said:

I NEED TO STUDY MORE! LOL

I remember that hand:

me: 40BB
Villain: almost 2x my stack.

Thanks for the advice!!

Click to expand...

In that case you did nothing wrong, and nothing can be done to avoid the outcome. It was just a standard cooler or setup. These dont matter in the long run, because just as often, you will be the player with a set, and they will also lose all their chips with AA.

It's a part of the game, you will get involved in these situations many times, try to think and recalculate your hand power after a reraise, sometimes it will help you to save some chips, try a simple call or check to see what action the villain will do, any crazy move are importante to review and reassess what are happening.

Not much you can do. Villains reraise post-flop may have been a red flag giving you your last warning to consider they may have 2 pr or worse, flopped a set, since you mention there is no straight draw or flush draw yet.

eberetta1 said:

Not much you can do. Villains reraise post-flop may have been a red flag giving you your last warning to consider they may have 2 pr or worse, flopped a set, since you mention there is no straight draw or flush draw yet.

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There are many straightdraws on 974. T8, 86 and 65 were open enders, and there were a bunch of gutshots as well. These hands make perfect sense as semi-bluffs, because they have very little showdown value. If they can get a hand like AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/KJ etc. to fold, that is a great result. In top of that many players will raise their top pair on a board like this for protection. If Villain has a hand like K9, there are very few turn cards, he is going to like, so he raise in the hope, he can just take it down now.

A raise on a board like this is far from always two pair or a set, and this is why, there is no way, we can ever fold AA. With 40BB we are not going to fold on the turn either, so we might as well just rip it in and be done. In a cash game with 100BB we call and evaluate turn and river, usually folding at some point, if Villain continue to fire.

Agree with the comments, there are a few spots where I might be willing to put it down, like against a straightforward TAG , or tournament bubble, but otherwise I'm going to have to stack off.

If you are afraid of losing the entire stack with strong hands, there is a way out, form a close-sized average pot when you have aces. In this case, you will definitely win the race.

And you can probably predict your opponent's set if you already have a history of hands against them.