How can I reduce my variance?

satcitananda · Nov 13, 2019

If I were to try to build a bankroll from nothing or from a small deposit like $20 or $30...

What poker client for Puerto Rico would you recommend?

What would be the best way to reduce variance?

What stakes should I be playing?

Should I be avoiding tournaments and sit and gos?

blueskies · Nov 13, 2019

You can't. Unless you can defeat the online algorithm which isn't truly random, then you will always run into more bad beats than in real life.

deyvsonflp · Nov 14, 2019

With this BR you should play $ 1 sit and go from 180 players, sit $ 1.50 ko 90p and 0.25c 90p. You can build a good BR in this grid of games.

mpkr10 · Nov 14, 2019

definitely play 2nl cash games, easiest way to build from a small bankroll with the least variance

satcitananda · Nov 14, 2019

Thank you so much for the answers will give it a try.

valen_niyee · Oct 8, 2020

blueskies said:
You can't. Unless you can defeat the online algorithm which isn't truly random, then you will always run into more bad beats than in real life.

Couldnot agree more. Variance is not truly random.
If the variance put the statistic of the player in the formula. Thats mean bullshit. Random means purely from the card. Anyone know how the variance formula? If the playroom hidden it from the user. It means something is not right about the formula

TeUnit · Oct 9, 2020

This will sound silly.... the best way to lower variance is to get better. Picture the sharkscope graph of a player with a 1% ROI in SNGs and now picture the graph of a player with a 15% ROI in SNGs- now pretend you have to snow ski on one of the graphs. If you want a nice smooth (low variance) run you would probably go with the 15% ROI.

johnnylawford · Dec 7, 2020

deyvsonflp said:
With this BR you should play $ 1 sit and go from 180 players, sit $ 1.50 ko 90p and 0.25c 90p. You can build a good BR in this grid of games.

I'd think even $1 games off a $20 BR would be aggressive if the goal is to reduce variance. If you're priority is not busting your BR I would stick to a ~%1 rule for SnGs or MTTs, so .25 games. On the other hand if you're not worried about having to reload and you can beat the games $1 games seem fine.

As other posters have noted 2nl full ring is a good option too as cash is lower variance than tournaments, but again only if you are overall making a profit off these games. 6 max tables are a little higher variance as you're playing more hands and in the bb more often, so again more $ if you can beat it, but higher variance.

Houdini9 · Feb 19, 2021

You can not reduce variance. However you can limit ot's impact on your bankroll. Remain disciplined and only risk 1 - 2% of your bankroll on any sit down or tourney. You can take it a step further and limit your risk to 1 or 2% per day. Just remember, variance is the result of statistics and odds.

Find a good strategy and manage what you have control over and variance will be less of a factor in your career.

GL GL,

HOUDINI9

Collin Moshman · Feb 20, 2021

As TeUnit says, getting better will help a lot. You also want to pick formats that lend themselves to lower swings. If you play tournaments/SNGs, the fewer the number of entrants and flatter the payout structure, the lower your variance will be. The best are usually heads-up SNG and double-or-nothing. The worst will be large-field MTT.

Important Note: Do not change your style for the purpose of lowering variance. Usually you will just end up lowering your winrate instead. Winning poker requires embracing the natural swings in your game of choice

xOneCoolHandx · Feb 20, 2021

I agree that the best way to battle variance is to get better, but, no matter how good you get, online poker does not follow real world rules. The cardrooms will tell you that their shuffles are mathematically equivalent to their real world counterparts but that they have an exponentially larger volume of hands, so overall, the "variance" mirrors the real world. Viewing it in a macro way, this makes perfect sense because it all evens out with the numbers in the long run. I think that justification rings hollow though. The micro level math should match the macro for individual players.

That said. The way I try to counter variance is to put in a lot more volume. That way, my microcosm of hands has a chance to even out over a larger sample size.

maxmaster10 · Feb 20, 2021

it`s impossible to get control to the variance, but if u get a bad run, you can check your hands if u did a bad move or if just a cooler or a bad beat...

Sschafell · Feb 20, 2021

I believe that volume is the best way to reduce variance

MAGICUZ · Feb 20, 2021

20 or 30 dollars is not enough for a bankroll, most likely you will lose this money.With this money you can have a good time, but it is very difficult to think about winning.Many people don't realize, but variance is what keeps poker alive.

Charulleto · Feb 20, 2021

A humble opinion.
There is no variation. It's just the mechanics of the game.

POKER IS NOT ALL IN THE PRE FLOP.

You will win with AA, KK, QQ, AK etc. many times and you will lose others for a simple reason, the cards of all opponents will be different each time you have an AA and just like the community cards will also be different in each game.

What exists is equity after the flop.

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How can I reduce my variance?

satcitananda

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blueskies

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deyvsonflp

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mpkr10

Enthusiast

satcitananda

Rock Star

valen_niyee

Rock Star

TeUnit

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johnnylawford

Visionary

Houdini9

Enthusiast

Collin Moshman

Poker Expert

xOneCoolHandx

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maxmaster10

Rock Star

Sschafell

Visionary

MAGICUZ

Legend

Charulleto

Rising Star

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