Odds of being dealt KK vs AA

watchtowel · Jan 4, 2011

What are the odds of being dealt KK when someone else is dealth AA at full ring. Seems to happen to me a lot...

pcgnome · Jan 4, 2011

My math could be wrong ,but I have read that the probability is .004 or 250-1.

absoluthamm · Jan 4, 2011

You have a 4.32% chance of running into Aces when you're holding Kings when the table is 9 handed.

Stu_Ungar · Jan 6, 2011

It dosent happen a lot.

People just dont stack off light in FR meaning that when you do you are almost always against a range of QQ+ AK

TopDonk · Jan 6, 2011

happens very rarely, happens to you as much as anyone else.

don't worry about it imo

thunder1276 · Jan 6, 2011

I just had my Q's run into A's at a HU touney.

Egon Towst · Jan 6, 2011

Let`s do some quick calculations:

You will be dealt KK one time in each 169 hands, on average.

Each time you have KK, each of your opponents will have a one-in-169 chance of holding AA and you will have 8 or 9 opponents at a full-ring table.

Figure that out, and you will discover that the situation arises roughly every 3500 hands. At the sort of volume I play (and my volume is modest compared to some here), that`s about twice a week.

So, it`s a fairly frequent occurence to have your KK crushed by AA and, since it`s a pretty frustrating thing to happen, it probably figures large in your memory and it feels like it`s happening all the time.

absoluthamm · Jan 6, 2011

After roughly going through it in HEM, over my last ~150k hands, I was dealt AA or KK where my opponent ended up having the opposite(just the hands that ended up going to showdown or getting AI obviously, otherwise I don't know what they had), so for me it's happening about once every 4800 hands

watchtowel · Jan 7, 2011

lucky you, happened to me 4 times in 2000 and I was on the worse end of it all times

Makwa · Jan 7, 2011

I prefer to think of it this way: What are that chances that someone shoves PF with KK and you crush him with rockets that hold to the river?! Yay!!

Your AA vs their KK can occur the same as the opposite...

JohnBoyWWFC · Jan 7, 2011

Happened to me 3 times in one (rush) tourney, once I caught a K, one decimated my stack, the other KO'd me.

Dreams of Tragedy · Jan 7, 2011

it happens to me alot online, but not live

thebigdawg · Jan 7, 2011

It can only remember it happening to me one time live. I wonder how many times it has happen online.

QTipDTB · Jan 7, 2011

Egon: You get a given pocket pair 1/221 hands. I think you might be getting confused by the 169 different types of hands in a range selector like PokerStove. That's not taking into account the different combinations of each type. KK is 6 combinations out of a possible 1,326.

OP: The # of times you run KK into AA depends on how many opponents you have.

HU - 1 out of 204 KKs

6Max (5 opponents) - 1 out of 41 KKs

FR (8 opponents) - 1 out of 26 KKs

So, in FR, you'll run KK into AA about once every 5,500 hands. In 6max, about every 8900 hands.

More importantly, normally no money is made in these spots in the long term in poker. They simply don't matter. Since we virtually all play them the same, there's no difference in our strategy and therefore no edge to either player.

blueskies · Jan 10, 2011

What about KK vs. AA vs. AA? Or PP running into two identical pocket pairs?

I had that happen at FT recently. But that is the only time for me ever.

I once had AA vs. 66 vs. 66. All in preflop. Lost. Also the only time ever that I know of. Also FT.

blueskies · Jan 10, 2011

QTipDTB said:
More importantly, normally no money is made in these spots in the long term in poker. They simply don't matter. Since we virtually all play them the same, there's no difference in our strategy and therefore no edge to either player.

Except for the house, assuming on average these types of starting hands should have higher than average size pots.

absoluthamm · Jan 10, 2011

blueskies said:
What about KK vs. AA vs. AA? Or PP running into two identical pocket pairs?

I had that happen at FT recently. But that is the only time for me ever.

I once had AA vs. 66 vs. 66. All in preflop. Lost. Also the only time ever that I know of. Also FT.

You lost to a flush or straight?

blueskies · Jan 11, 2011

Straight.

I felt great when the cards flipped up knowing that neither guy could win with a set. Then a feeling of “oh cmon!” after the flop was 578. Then a 2 on the turn and I was still holding my breath, and then the 9 of hearts on the river. I still remember this hand because I was astounded.

At that point, I had gotten used to FT’s magic, but this one was especially remarkable. This was around when I decided to leave FT once my initial-bonus period was up.

This was the icing on the cake, I have seen so much improbable stuff on FT. I don’t play there anymore unless there’s bonus.

CntryBoys · Jan 11, 2011

That actually happened to me the other day but I had KK instead of AA and busted out of a tourny really close to the $ . The chances of are not very good i would say. Not sure on the percentages

takethepain · Jan 11, 2011

ryanmccauley211 said:
What are the odds of being dealt KK when someone else is dealth AA at full ring. Seems to happen to me a lot...

To be honest I think its a psycological thing. We all remember when we get the cowboys, wind up all-in only to find ourselves up against the pocket rockets. What we don't remember so much is all the times we wind up all-in with the cowboys against the ladies. As humans, we have a habit of remembering the times when we do get that 'bad beat', but not remembering when the times when our all-ins went off as planned.

cjatud2012 · Jan 13, 2011

TopDonk said:
happens very rarely, happens to you as much as anyone else.

don't worry about it imo

this.

/thread

Odds of being dealt KK vs AA

watchtowel

Visionary

pcgnome

Legend

absoluthamm

<==Poker Face

Stu_Ungar

Legend

TopDonk

Rock Star

thunder1276

Rock Star

Egon Towst

Cardschat Elite

absoluthamm

<==Poker Face

watchtowel

Visionary

Makwa

Undesirable Predator

JohnBoyWWFC

Grindddddd

Dreams of Tragedy

dreamsoftragedy.com

thebigdawg

Legend

QTipDTB

DTB Coach

blueskies

Legend

blueskies

Legend

absoluthamm

<==Poker Face

blueskies

Legend

CntryBoys

Rock Star

takethepain

Rock Star

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site