Pot bet sizes and draws

Andyreas · Nov 23, 2022

Hi forum,

I am not yet too quick in calculating Pot odds in real time, so I tried to make a table / list for me with max bet sizes I can call with the respective draw.

I thought I'd share with the forum and also any feedback/corrections appreciated.

Draw Type	#Outs	%Win	Pot Odds	Max bet in % Pot 1 Street	Max bet in % Pot 2 Streets / Shove
Pocket Pair to Set	2	4%	22-1	4,5% (≈ 1/20)	10% (=1/10)
One Overcard to Overpair	3	6%	14-1	7,5% (≈ 1/13)	17% (= 1/6)
Inside Straight Draw	4	9%	11-1	10% (=1/10)	25% (1/4)
Two Pair to FH	4	9%	11-1	10% (=1/10)	25% (1/4)
One pair to two pair/trips	5	11%	8-1	14% (≈ 1/7)	33% (1/3)
No pair to pair	6	13%	13-2	18% (≈ 1/6)	50% (1/2)
Two Overcards to Overpair	6	13%	13-2	18% (≈ 1/6)	50% (1/2)
Set to Full House / Quads	7	15%	11-2	22% (≈ 1/5)	66% (2/3)
Open-ended straight draw	8	17%	5-1	25% (1/4)	100% (1/1)
Flush draw	9	19%	4-1	33% (1/3)	100% (1/1)
Inside Straight Draw and Two Overcards	10	21%	4-1	33% (1/3)	> 100% (1/1)
Inside Straight and flush draw	12	26%	3-1	50% (1/2)	> 100% (1/1)
Open-ended Straight and flush draw	15	32%	2-1	100% (1/1)	> 100% (1/1)

Somehow I cannot come up with the right pot sizes for the huge draws for two streets atm, so if anyone has them or can enlighten me, that's appreciated.

spunka · Nov 23, 2022

Max bet in % Pot 2 Streets / Shove not sure what you mean here you mean (you wil be 1. on flop) so turn and fold on river if you miss ?

good work

Andyreas · Nov 23, 2022

spunka said:
Max bet in % Pot 2 Streets / Shove not sure what you mean here you mean (you wil be on turn) so turn and fold on river if you miss ?

No, I mean if I face a bet on flop and there'll be surely no bet on turn and river, i.e. the other player (or I) jams post-flop.

spunka · Nov 23, 2022

math seems ok, but I would not push drawing hands all in post-flop as you see from your table the best is 32% win

kunkgreen · Nov 23, 2022

Very nice to have a guide.

Jurojin, a screen manager, you have the option to show the potodds, SPR and one more stats that I don't remember right now.

Pot Odds HUD: Guide for Online Poker [2024]

This Pot Odds Tutorial Helps you Master the Art of Pot Odds in Poker and Make Informed Decisions at the Table. Learn How to Calculate Pot Odds Here.

jurojinpoker.com

They also have an interesting RNG generator for GTO based decision making, which I don't think is our case for now!

D0nk3y Hunt3r · Nov 24, 2022

Andyreas said:
Draw Type
#Outs
%Win
Pot Odds
Max bet in % Pot
1 Street
Max bet in % Pot
2 Streets / Shove
No pair to pair 6 13% 13-2 18% (≈ 1/6) 50% (1/2)

Somehow I cannot come up with the right pot sizes for the huge draws for two streets atm, so if anyone has them or can enlighten me, that's appreciated.

I didn't check all the math, though I don't understand this. Shouldn't this be ~24% for two streets? I assume you mean win by getting this pair. If this is for one street only, on the next one percentage is the same if you don't hit.

Andyreas · Nov 24, 2022

D0nk3y Hunt3r said:
I didn't check all the math, though I don't understand this. Shouldn't this be ~24% for two streets?

Yes, exactly. And 24% for two streets is close to 3-1 pot odds where you can call half pot bet to be break even.

This 50% of pot bet is what I note in the last column. (Assuming I'm calling a shove on flop with half pot size.)

D0nk3y Hunt3r · Nov 25, 2022

Andyreas said:
This 50% of pot bet is what I note in the last column. (Assuming I'm calling a shove on flop with half pot size.)

This is where all the confusion comes from. Many people calculate this including their own bet, I don't.

dreamer13 · Nov 25, 2022

There are three main types of straight draws: open using both hole cards; open using one pocket card and "leaky". An open straight with two overcards is made about 50% of the time, meaning you won't win or lose anything. However, you should be careful with overcards - they can depreciate if your opponent makes a straight with their help. On an offsuit flop, open straights are played in the same way as a flush draw. In general, straight draws are less powerful than flush draws, but their strategies are very similar, especially on an offsuit flop.Beginners believe that the main thing in poker is to play for an increase, to increase the amounts. This is mistake. The professional folds after assessing the situation. In certain situations, this is much more profitable than fighting for a big pot with a weak hand. There is always information at the poker table that is worth "reading" and using.

christovam · Nov 26, 2022

Very interesting this table. But I confess that I still have a hard time looking at things other than the tables. But it is super valid. I'll try to memorize these values, at least to have a base.

dannystanks · Jan 19, 2024

Great work!

dannystanks · Jan 19, 2024

New players, if you need something to study and get memorized this is it!

Nemamiah · Jun 4, 2025

I wish I could say that I understood it, but I can't. I don't know how to read this table, can you help me please? It seems very helpful.

Andyreas · Jun 4, 2025

Nemamiah said:
I don't know how to read this table, can you help me please?

The table shows the type of draw/number of outs you have and compares it to bet sizes of your opponents:
For example if you have a flush draw, you have 9 outs.

This means you can profitably call bets up to 1/3 of pot.

If your opponent bets higher, you have to evaluate if you think your opponent is bluffing or if you're willing to make a call that is mathematically not profitable.

Hope that helps.

ironduke11 · Jun 4, 2025

unorthodox players can exploit this logical set of thinking quite easily...

Andyreas · Jun 4, 2025

ironduke11 said:
unorthodox players can exploit this logical set of thinking quite easily...

Fair comment.

That's why we shouldn't always play in the same way and be unpredictable.

But I'd argue it's always good to know the theory.

Goggelheimer · Jun 4, 2025

Andyreas said:
Hi forum,

I am not yet too quick in calculating Pot Odds in real time, so I tried to make a table / list for me with max bet sizes I can call with the respective draw.

I thought I'd share with the forum and also any feedback/corrections appreciated.

Draw Type
#Outs
%Win
Pot Odds
Max bet in % Pot
1 Street
Max bet in % Pot
2 Streets / Shove
Pocket Pair to Set 2 4% 22-1 4,5% (≈ 1/20) 10% (=1/10)
One Overcard to Overpair 3 6% 14-1 7,5% (≈ 1/13) 17% (= 1/6)
Inside Straight Draw 4 9% 11-1 10% (=1/10) 25% (1/4)
Two Pair to FH 4 9% 11-1 10% (=1/10) 25% (1/4)
One pair to two pair/trips 5 11% 8-1 14% (≈ 1/7) 33% (1/3)
No pair to pair 6 13% 13-2 18% (≈ 1/6) 50% (1/2)
Two Overcards to Overpair 6 13% 13-2 18% (≈ 1/6) 50% (1/2)
Set to Full House / Quads 7 15% 11-2 22% (≈ 1/5) 66% (2/3)
Open-ended straight draw 8 17% 5-1 25% (1/4) 100% (1/1)
Flush draw 9 19% 4-1 33% (1/3) 100% (1/1)
Inside Straight Draw and Two Overcards 10 21% 4-1 33% (1/3) > 100% (1/1)
Inside Straight and flush draw 12 26% 3-1 50% (1/2) > 100% (1/1)
Open-ended Straight and flush draw 15 32% 2-1 100% (1/1) > 100% (1/1)

Somehow I cannot come up with the right pot sizes for the huge draws for two streets atm, so if anyone has them or can enlighten me, that's appreciated.

So much work.

Can be found hier.

Combine this table with the table their betsize and how often you have to win if you call.

Found in the link under

9. Poker Pot Odds Chart (based on bet sizings)

Nemamiah · Jun 6, 2025

Andyreas said:
The table shows the type of draw/number of outs you have and compares it to bet sizes of your opponents:
For example if you have a flush draw, you have 9 outs.

This means you can profitably call bets up to 1/3 of pot.

If your opponent bets higher, you have to evaluate if you think your opponent is bluffing or if you're willing to make a call that is mathematically not profitable.

Hope that helps.

That clarified alot! Thank you

fundiver199 · Jun 7, 2025

Kind of late to this party, but 3 of a kind to full house/quads is actually 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn.

If we have

on

our outs to a full house/quads are

Also this is not a pure drawing situation, since

is the best hand already, unless the opponent has a flush or a full house.

Andyreas · Jun 7, 2025

fundiver199 said:
Kind of late to this party, but 3 of a kind to full house/quads is actually 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn.

Good point! I don't really remember how I created the table but I think I looked at the flop situation only. But it's not clearly mentioned obviously. 🤔

Thanks for pointing this out though! ☺️

Pot bet sizes and draws

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9. Poker Pot Odds Chart (based on bet sizings)