monkeytilter
Legend
Platinum Level
This number is roughly right for how often WE are dealt AA but you need to remember we are thinking about villain's holding now and we have removed 2 cards from the deck of 52, so AA will be dealt to them roughly 1 time in 204. [C(4,2) / C(50,2) = 6/1225= 204]
*By us holding us holding KK we have to remove a lot of combinations of hands that contain a King from villain's possible holdings, this makes AA slightly more likely for them as the number of possible hands for them has been reduced.
As a rough guide to how often 2 or more villains have AA you can divide the 204 by the number of opponents (this is not totally precise but close enough)..
Heads up they will have AA vs you KK 1 time in 204, about 0.5%.
In a 6 max game 1 time in 41 (204/5), about 2.5% - roughly similar odds to hitting a single number at roulette
..and 9 handed, 1 time in 26, about 4% - similar odds to hitting a 1 outer from flop to river at hold'em
F
fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
As others have said, the chance of running KK (or any other hand not containing an A) into AA, is around 2,5% at 6-max and 4,0% at 9-max. However if we continue raising and reraising preflop, until we are all-in, then people will fold weaker holdings, and the risk, we get it in against AA, will be higher than those numbers. If we are very deep like 300BB, then perhaps at some point we should stop reraising to avoid a situation, where the opponent gives us action with AA and fold everything else.
thedarkman
Legend
Platinum Level
On a similar theme, I have a lot of these I will post in due course. This was played July 23, 2014.
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thedarkman
Legend
Platinum Level
This was from the freeroll tonight!
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monkeytilter
Legend
Platinum Level
I must be growing up, couldn't even remember exiting like that
Now I recall I did think about this thread for a second.
R
Ruinkind
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I wouldn't jam KK unless you're short. A 4 bet is nice for info, over shove is USUALLY AK/AQ/KQ, pocket, in my experience, so a good race for you.
People love to call suited aces and ruin your day, keep that in mind.
Sometimes you gotta eat the boot and fold to that to the A on the flop, if yer feeling spicy with a nice stack and they bet weak, play some poker to feel them out, maybe you'll ding a 2 outer if your dominated.
People love to call suited aces and ruin your day, keep that in mind.
Sometimes you gotta eat the boot and fold to that to the A on the flop, if yer feeling spicy with a nice stack and they bet weak, play some poker to feel them out, maybe you'll ding a 2 outer if your dominated.
dreamer13
Legend
Loyaler
The chance that someone will have AA when you have KK at an 8-handed table is almost 4 percent.Every hand in poker is part of a continuous, never-ending statistical test.Calculating any given poker situation will yield ridiculous odds of its occurrence. However, if you calculate the probability of that situation occurring over, say, 10 million hands, most of these probabilities begin to approach 1.
thedarkman
Legend
Platinum Level
This isn't kings but we were all-in pre-flop. This was a game played December 7, 2013. Sadly, I didn't cash.
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anasslaaleg
Rock Star
Platinum Level
Every poker player knows the feeling: you pick up pocket kings, your heart jumps, you raise with confidence… and then someone 3-bets you. Suddenly that little voice in your head whispers: “What if he has aces?”
The good news?
It’s rare.
The bad news?
When it happens, it feels like the universe is targeting you personally.
Let’s break it down simply:
There is only one hand in the entire deck that beats KK preflop: AA.
The chance that one specific opponent is dealt AA when you have KK is about 0.49% less than 1%
(roughly 1 in 204 situations).
But tournaments and cash games often have multiple opponents.
So the more players still in the hand, the higher the odds one of them wakes up with aces:
Against 6 opponents: roughly 1 in 34 chance.
Against 9 opponents: roughly 1 in 25 chance.
So yes, it’s rare but not impossible. That’s why sometimes it feels like you run into AA more often than you should. Emotion magnifies the pain.
The key lesson?
Stick to the math, not the fear.
Kings are a monster. You should play them strong almost every time. If you occasionally crash into aces, that’s just part of the game not a mistake.
Pocket kings lose to aces sometimes,
but patient, disciplined players still win in the long run.
The good news?
It’s rare.
The bad news?
When it happens, it feels like the universe is targeting you personally.
Let’s break it down simply:
There is only one hand in the entire deck that beats KK preflop: AA.
The chance that one specific opponent is dealt AA when you have KK is about 0.49% less than 1%
(roughly 1 in 204 situations).
But tournaments and cash games often have multiple opponents.
So the more players still in the hand, the higher the odds one of them wakes up with aces:
Against 6 opponents: roughly 1 in 34 chance.
Against 9 opponents: roughly 1 in 25 chance.
So yes, it’s rare but not impossible. That’s why sometimes it feels like you run into AA more often than you should. Emotion magnifies the pain.
The key lesson?
Stick to the math, not the fear.
Kings are a monster. You should play them strong almost every time. If you occasionally crash into aces, that’s just part of the game not a mistake.
Pocket kings lose to aces sometimes,
but patient, disciplined players still win in the long run.
L
Lux12
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Classic cooler spot. The math says if you’re holding KK, the chance that another player has AA depends on how many players are dealt in. Heads-up it’s impossible, but at a full 9-handed table the odds of running KK into AA are about 1 in 24,000 hands. Put another way, if you’re dealt KK, the chance someone else has AA at the same time is roughly 0.5% in a full ring game. So it’s rare, but it feels like it happens way more often because those hands are so memorable.