$0 NL HE MTT: Is villain likely to have AQ?

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 300/600 (120 ante) - 9 players
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UTG: 39,322 (66 bb)
UTG+1: 40,127 (67 bb)
MP: 32,698 (54 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 12,460 (21 bb)
LP: 8,214 (14 bb)
CO: 13,175 (22 bb)
BU: 26,539 (44 bb)
SB: 59,327 (99 bb)
BB: 3,604 (6 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,980) Hero is MP+1 with Q♥ 2♠
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 600, 1 fold, Hero calls 600, 2 players fold, BTN calls 600, SB calls 300, BB checks

Flop: (4,080) T♣ J♠ 9♥ (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets 2,040, Hero calls 2,040, BTN calls 2,040, 2 players fold

Turn: (10,200) K♦ (3 players)
UTG+1 bets 3,366

I was thinking about going all in here to force a fold to prevent a river card improving the villain, but if the villain held AQ I would lose.

Should I shove or not, given that he didn't raise pre-flop?

You have the straight on the turn. Q plus T J 9 K is a Broadway straight. So AQ is not a problem, AQ actually loses to you here.

Villain’s small bet looks like either a thin value bet with Kx or a blocker/probe from a wide calling range. Shoving is fine. You get value from Kx, two pair, sets, and you deny a free river that could pair and beat you or give someone a chop. At these stacks it’s a clear shove for value and protection, not a bluff.

Short answer: shove.

rsparente said:

You have the straight on the turn. Q plus T J 9 K is a Broadway straight. So AQ is not a problem, AQ actually loses to you here.

Click to expand...

AQ plus KJT is a higher straight which will beat me.

I meant in the previous street, I should have been clearer. After the turn you have no other option than shoving, you are already committed to the pot.

Preflop
This is a clear fold. High-low offsuit hands are some of the worst hands to play, because they have little chance to make a straight or flush, and when they hit top pair, you have kicker issues. I know, its a freeroll, but when you ask strategy questions, I have to say this, even its very fundamental.

Flop
You flopped an OESD, but this is a pretty bad draw. Someone could have a straight already with KQ, and then you are basically drawing dead with 3 outs to chop the pot. Also if you make your hand, there will be 1-liner to a straight, so there is a high risk, you only chop, its difficult to get paid, and a better straight will be possible. So honestly even now your hand is at least close to just being a fold to a half pot sized bet.

River
If you were out of position, I would check-jam, but in position I prefer to just call and allow him to potentially bluff the river or overplay a worse hand. You are obviously not folding, now that you made your hand and only lose to AQ.

Just want to elaborate a bit more on my answer to this one. The title indicate, that once you make your hand, the main concern should be, that its not the best hand, or how likely this is. But thats not the case. Once you turn the flush (I wrote river by mistake), you are committed to the pot, and if you lose, its just a cooler.

This is even true, if the board pair on the river making you lose to both AQ and some full houses. Even then your hand would still be to strong to fold, and it would also still be strong enough to jam for value, if you have just called the turn, and he check the river. Only if a Q hit the river, which would make you play the board, does this change, since now you can not win the pot but only lose or chop.

So protection is also not a high priority here. If he has two pair, he only have 4 outs to fill up. And if he has 99+, he would probably have raised preflop, so sets are even more unlikely than AQ, which would likely also have raised preflop. Although of course we never know for sure, what other players do, so no hand is impossible for him to have. They are just not super likely.