£5 NL HE MTT: Busted at the bubble trying to apply bubble pressure

miklcct · Mar 22, 2026

It's the final table of a satellite where 2 players will carry their best stack to the next stage. The 4th place was just recently busted so there was no SB.

I shoved, got called by Ac6s, and lost. I then eventually blinded out afterwards.

1. Was my shove correct?
2. Why couldn't I apply bubble pressure here?

Marcwantstowin · Mar 22, 2026

I see you were first to act and had the second biggest stack of the 3 of you. My play would have been to fold in that position, as I expect the player with the smallest stack may have made a play. It is a difficult choice, but I think you are not wrong in playing that hand, but something with an Ace or Picture would have been better at this stage.

fundiver199 · Mar 23, 2026

The opponent is the shortest stack, and there is a very large ante of 66.000 chips according to the picture. For that reason you are supposed to jam very wide (73% of hands), and he is supposed to call equally wide (75%) of hands. If the 66.000 chips is not an ante, then you are only supposed to jam 51% of hands, and he is only supposed to call 36% of hands. These numbers are from the program ICMizer, which is paid software.

However in either case 98s and A6o are both well within the range of hands, you need to play. Its a very common misconception to think, we did something wrong, when the result was not favourable, but this is not, how poker works. There are lots of hands, where everyone play perfect, and still there need to be a winner and a loser.

miklcct · Mar 23, 2026

fundiver199 said:
The opponent is the shortest stack, and there is a very large ante of 66.000 chips according to the picture. For that reason you are supposed to jam very wide (73% of hands), and he is supposed to call equally wide (75%) of hands. If the 66.000 chips is not an ante, then you are only supposed to jam 51% of hands, and he is only supposed to call 36% of hands. These numbers are from the program ICMizer, which is paid software.

However in either case 98s and A6o are both well within the range of hands, you need to play. Its a very common misconception to think, we did something wrong, when the result was not favourable, but this is not, how poker works. There are lots of hands, where everyone play perfect, and still there need to be a winner and a loser.

This was right at the bubble (with the stack carried over to the next phase), how much was the effect of it compared to a standard satellite?

fundiver199 · Mar 23, 2026

miklcct said:
This was right at the bubble (with the stack carried over to the next phase), how much was the effect of it compared to a standard satellite?

So you dont just proceed to the next phase, you also carry your stack with you? In that case its not really a bubble but more like a break in the tournament, and we can pretty much analyse the hand in chip-EV. Meaning we are trying to win as many chips as possible rather than just proceed to the next phase. In chip-EV ranges become wider.

Without an ante you are now jamming 48% of hands, and he is calling 44% of hands. With the 66k ante you are jamming 75% of hands, and he is calling 92% of hands. This is because, there is so much out there already (108k), and he only has 144k more in his stack. So it becomes a pot odds situation, where you are both priced in to get it in very wide.

monkeytilter · Mar 23, 2026

1. There is some psychological pressure for villains to fold as generally they would like to progress to the next phase, but this is not strictly a bubble spot as villains will be more willing to "gamble" as they are still trying to accumulate chips to carry into the next phase (reasonable risk/reward).

Compare this to a true satellite where additional chips have no value at this point and busting just loses the chance of ITM (poor risk/reward).

2. Another factor is it looks like stacks are very short so villains are more compelled to call as they are at risk of blinding out anyway.

fundiver199 · Mar 23, 2026

monkeytilter said:
There is some psychological pressure for villains to fold as generally they would like to progress to the next phase, but this is not strictly a bubble spot as villains will be more willing to "gamble" as they are still trying to accumulate chips to carry into the next phase (reasonable risk/reward).

And as I wrote already, even if this was a true satellite bubble, the Villain is still supposed to call with 36% of hands, even without an ante. It sounds like OP is surpriced, that A6o called. But folding any AX would be a huge mistake for the opponent, so he just did, what he is supposed to do. As the short stack he cant expect to fold his way to a ticket, and he already had 40k chips out there after posting the blind. Actually the 98s jam from the mid stack is a little bit closer than the A6o call from the short stack, but still correct.

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£5 NL HE MTT: Busted at the bubble trying to apply bubble pressure

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