$7.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Any way for me to get out of this hand?

Satiivas · Apr 19, 2021

Middle stage of the tourney.
The villain seemed to be an older person according to his picture, who either check-called everything or when betting, used enormous sizes, also with mediocre hands.

PokerStars, $6.69 + $0.81 - Hold'em No Limit - 350/700 (110 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

lolo10125 (UTG): 48,725 (70 bb)
bipex99 (UTG+1): 11,991 (17 bb)
aron_wawa (MP): 33,624 (48 bb)
S.GabrielR (MP+1): 29,370 (42 bb)
Opie19678 (LP): 16,649 (24 bb)
ElTouna (CO): 9,098 (13 bb)
edgedge (BU): 23,872 (34 bb)
Johnny50922 (SB): 45,495 (65 bb)
satiivas1 (BB): 16,226 (23 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,040) Hero (satiivas1) is BB with J♣ 9♦
lolo10125 (UTG) raises to 1,400, 3 players fold, Opie19678 (LP) calls 1,400, 1 fold, edgedge (BU) calls 1,400, Johnny50922 (SB) calls 1,050, satiivas1 (BB) calls 700

Flop: (7,990) Q♣ 8♦ 9♥ (5 players)
Johnny50922 (SB) checks, satiivas1 (BB) checks, lolo10125 (UTG) checks, Opie19678 (LP) checks, edgedge (BU) checks

Turn: (7,990) T♣ (5 players)
Johnny50922 (SB) bets 3,995, satiivas1 (BB) calls 3,995, lolo10125 (UTG) calls 3,995, Opie19678 (LP) folds, edgedge (BU) raises to 22,362 (all-in), Johnny50922 (SB) folds, satiivas1 (BB) calls 10,721 (all-in), lolo10125 (UTG) folds

River: (45,412) 9♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 45,412

Showdown:
edgedge (BU) shows K♠ J♦ (a straight, Nine to King)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 73%, Flop: 28%, Turn: 97%, River: 100%)

satiivas1 (BB) shows J♣ 9♦ (a straight, Eight to Queen)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 27%, Flop: 72%, Turn: 3%, River: 0%)

edgedge (BU) wins 45,412

fundiver199 · Apr 19, 2021

Not with these stack sizes. Obviously you are going to be chopping a lot here, but most likely not everyone has a J, so there is some dead money in the pot. There is also only one hand, that beat you, which unfortunately someone had. Pretty much the definition of a cooler, especially when you only start the hand with 23BB.

Badday94 · Apr 20, 2021

Well, I wouldn't have played J 9 offsuite after 4 people were already in the hand even if you were bb and the raise preflop was 2x. The reason is I ended up too many times losing money as the bb with hands I wouldn't have played otherwise. I hate playing in the bb and since I fold more as bb, my game improved a lot. If it was sb vs bb, I would have called. Besides that, it's a tough decision to make at the end, especially because of the sb idiotic raise, which gave the opportunity for Bu to go all in, so after the sb folded I would have thought Bu had just a J as well.

FernA9ndo · Apr 20, 2021

UTG Raised and three called, with that I would have folded J9 off pre flop.

eetenor · Apr 20, 2021

Satiivas said:
Middle stage of the tourney.
The villain seemed to be an older person according to his picture, who either check-called everything or when betting, used enormous sizes, also with mediocre hands.

PokerStars, $6.69 + $0.81 - Hold'em No Limit - 350/700 (110 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

lolo10125 (UTG): 48,725 (70 bb)
bipex99 (UTG+1): 11,991 (17 bb)
aron_wawa (MP): 33,624 (48 bb)
S.GabrielR (MP+1): 29,370 (42 bb)
Opie19678 (LP): 16,649 (24 bb)
ElTouna (CO): 9,098 (13 bb)
edgedge (BU): 23,872 (34 bb)
Johnny50922 (SB): 45,495 (65 bb)
satiivas1 (BB): 16,226 (23 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,040) Hero (satiivas1) is BB with J♣ 9♦
lolo10125 (UTG) raises to 1,400, 3 players fold, Opie19678 (LP) calls 1,400, 1 fold, edgedge (BU) calls 1,400, Johnny50922 (SB) calls 1,050, satiivas1 (BB) calls 700

Flop: (7,990) Q♣ 8♦ 9♥ (5 players)
Johnny50922 (SB) checks, satiivas1 (BB) checks, lolo10125 (UTG) checks, Opie19678 (LP) checks, edgedge (BU) checks

Turn: (7,990) T♣ (5 players)
Johnny50922 (SB) bets 3,995, satiivas1 (BB) calls 3,995, lolo10125 (UTG) calls 3,995, Opie19678 (LP) folds, edgedge (BU) raises to 22,362 (all-in), Johnny50922 (SB) folds, satiivas1 (BB) calls 10,721 (all-in), lolo10125 (UTG) folds

River: (45,412) 9♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 45,412

Showdown:
edgedge (BU) shows K♠ J♦ (a straight, Nine to King)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 73%, Flop: 28%, Turn: 97%, River: 100%)

satiivas1 (BB) shows J♣ 9♦ (a straight, Eight to Queen)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 27%, Flop: 72%, Turn: 3%, River: 0%)

edgedge (BU) wins 45,412

Thank you for posting

Not looking at results trying to share street by street

Preflop UTG min opens has us covered.
J9off is a decent hand but the J could be easily dominated post flop we also have to be careful of bigger straight combos say on QTx for instance.
Look out 3 callers of UTG we really have to be careful now as those calling ranges can be crushing us post flop.

When we call we really need to hit hard to continue we could be crushed by better hands and better draws not even JJx is completely safe.

Flop check thru

Turn SB lead. Ok this is that situation I mentioned above about bigger straight draws. KJ could be lurking behind us. SB should not be bluffing here so we may be splitting this pot and if we just call 2 pair hands can boat chase. We really do not want to raise this though unless we know SB is a maniac.

We could min raise fold to anyone who shoves behind us as we are screaming strength

Ok it happened as I thought it could KJ was behind us.

So back to my first point when UTG raises and 3 callers call the odds of someone having cards that hit the cards we want goes way up. You noticed I said JJX was not even a slam dunk board for us KJ kills us there too AJ QJ all calling hands in spots like this.

So can we get away from this? Maybe. The player that shoved has 2 hands we hate the nuts KJ or AJ with a redraw to a better straight. So most likely we tie at best The SB lead you call should make the all-in think twice about KJ themselves yet they shoved another indicator of strength. This is one of those times we can consider folding when it is split the pot -lose it now or lose it on the river if a K comes.

We could stack protect here and fold based on the preflop range considerations.
Incredibly difficult fold here but possible.

It case you are wondering, no I did not know the results before I made my range reads preflop and on turn.

In the future you may not want to shade your post by asking if you should fold- it implies you lost. You could just ask if anyone plays this another way?

Hope this helps

fundiver199 · Apr 21, 2021

I can be on board with folding this hand preflop and not get involved in a huge multiway pot with such a bad hand. Yes we are getting an awesome price, but sometimes even a good price is not enough to compensate for a really bad situation. And with a hand like J9o against 4 opponents there are so many different ways for us to end up with an expensive second best hand this being one of them.

However once we call preflop, it would in my opinion be a very big mistake to not get our chips in on the turn. I actually prefer to jam it in myself, when the action gets to me first, because there are 4 opponents in the hand and a lot of different river cards, that can be very bad for us. Any card from 8 to K and any club is not great, and with so little left behind this is not the time to slowplay and be tricky/trappy.

Hero did just call though, and now its a pretty simple math based decision, where we need to calculate our pot odds and pull out Equilab. First off I think, its fair to assume, that UTG probably dont have a straight, because then he would have raised himself over a bet and a call. So for sake of simplicity we can just assume, that he will fold, if we call, as in fact he did. This mean, we are paying 10k to win a share of a 45k pot, so we need around 23% equity.

Now we put BTN on a range, and I think, its fair to say, he has no fold equity against 3 other players, and therefore he is never raising as a bluff. He is also never raising a hand worse than a straight, unless he is totally clueless, so we are either losing or chopping. However if his range is QJ-AJ, JJ, J9s-JTs, which I think is very reasonable, then we have 34,7% equity, so this is never a fold, and its not close.

Some people tend to use a very emotional approach to tournaments, where they go something like "I could be beat here, and I want to survive, so I fold". But this is not, how we win money in tournaments. We win money by accumulating chips, and no tournament in the world is soft enough, that we can afford to skip a spot, where we have 34,7% and only need around 23% to make a break even call.

Satiivas · Apr 21, 2021

Thanks for the replies everyone!

I think I should focus more on my thought process about multiway pots, because I am always like- oh sweet, nice odds, and then get crushed by a dominating hand. The reasons to fold preflop, that you mentioned, make perfect sense.

Just out of curiosity- if it was J9s, would the same concepts apply or would that be a slam-dunk call in this preflop situation?

fundiver199 · Apr 21, 2021

I would be much more likely to call pre with J9s. A suited hand has around 4% more equity, which is huge in a 5-way pot.

slicheri93 · Apr 21, 2021

Nope cant get out of that hand with such stack size, if you had more blinds maybe,

was he playing wild before that hand or was he pretty tight? Maybe then you couldve gotten away if he was tight the whole time but its hard when holding the J yourself that he has jk

eetenor · Apr 21, 2021

fundiver199 said:
I can be on board with folding this hand preflop and not get involved in a huge multiway pot with such a bad hand. Yes we are getting an awesome price, but sometimes even a good price is not enough to compensate for a really bad situation. And with a hand like J9o against 4 opponents there are so many different ways for us to end up with an expensive second best hand this being one of them.

However once we call preflop, it would in my opinion be a very big mistake to not get our chips in on the turn. I actually prefer to jam it in myself, when the action gets to me first, because there are 4 opponents in the hand and a lot of different river cards, that can be very bad for us. Any card from 8 to K and any club is not great, and with so little left behind this is not the time to slowplay and be tricky/trappy.

Hero did just call though, and now its a pretty simple math based decision, where we need to calculate our pot odds and pull out Equilab. First off I think, its fair to assume, that UTG probably dont have a straight, because then he would have raised himself over a bet and a call. So for sake of simplicity we can just assume, that he will fold, if we call, as in fact he did. This mean, we are paying 10k to win a share of a 45k pot, so we need around 23% equity.

Now we put BTN on a range, and I think, its fair to say, he has no fold equity against 3 other players, and therefore he is never raising as a bluff. He is also never raising a hand worse than a straight, unless he is totally clueless, so we are either losing or chopping. However if his range is QJ-AJ, JJ, J9s-JTs, which I think is very reasonable, then we have 34,7% equity, so this is never a fold, and its not close.

Some people tend to use a very emotional approach to tournaments, where they go something like "I could be beat here, and I want to survive, so I fold". But this is not, how we win money in tournaments. We win money by accumulating chips, and no tournament in the world is soft enough, that we can afford to skip a spot, where we have 34,7% and only need around 23% to make a break even call.

Great analysis as usual

Your Range for all-in is too wide I think

QJ does not bet this flop? They chose to go 4 way to turn in position?

JT does not bet this flop? 4 way u have the nuts and you check 4 way why?
This flop smashes most of your V's ranges but you do not want to get value on that flop?
A good player is always betting JT there.

J9 bets this some % repping the JT- which a good player always bets there- or the Q with a back up draw so we have to exclude some % of J9 hands

We cannot give our villain a full compliment of those hands in an equity calculation as played.
So your equity calculations are a smidge too generous.

As to your statement about emotional fold here. Yes many players make monster under the bed type folds yes.

Thinking deeply about how a V thinks about a spot like this and making a read based fold not long term math based fold especially when we have a playable stack left to work with is a valid technique.
Often you will see the top players in the world do so. We can and should make "big folds" at times.

So suggesting this is never a fold is incorrect under the circumstances of this specific hand.

If we can through analysis not fear narrow a players range to be weighted towards the nuts in a specific hand we can fold. Will we be right every time no but the great thing about tournaments is surviving has value. It is harder to calculate that value than hand EV at this stage of the tournament but ICM is all about folding +EV spots to survive- an effective strategy- that is excepted by most of us- so we can apply that concept here at times effectively.

Thanks again for sharing, you do a great job demonstrating how to use math tools to dive deeper into rational math based decisions.

fundiver199 · Apr 22, 2021

Its a fair point, that I did not really consider the flop action, when I put BTN on a range. I think, a flopped straight always bets the flop, so I should not have put JTs in his range. However if you start to remove hands like QJ as well, you also need to partially remove KJ, because KJ might certainly be bet on the flop as a semi-bluff, when it checks around to him.

Its also not true, that BTN will never have a hand, we are ahead of. I just assumed this to simplify his range and illustrate, that even if we are only calling for a chopper, its still a massively profitable call. He could have a hand like TT and jam it, because he failed to read, that there was a 1-liner on the board. Or maybe he does it with a flushdraw. Nothing in poker is ever 100%. There is always room for people to show up with some weird hand, that we would not have played that way ourselfes. I also did not include any crazy JX hands in his range like J4 offsuit. Which again some players will have, because they are fish.

At the end of the day this is a really simple hand. We started with 23BB and turned the second nuts losing only to 12 combos of hands. If we are not going with our hand in that situation, why on earth did we then call preflop? We cant be all loosy-goosy preflop and then only stack off post with the absolute stone nuts, because we are simply not going to have that often enough.

And other people also dont have the nuts very often. There is no such thing as a "read" in poker allowing us to say, that this player must have the nuts, so we can just fold anything else. Maybe in some real special situations like a KQJT rainbow board, because then its so easy to have the nuts, but this was not such a situation. As others have said, maybe we can get away here, if we are deep stacked like 100BB, but certainly not for 23BB

300HPGOD · Apr 23, 2021

I look at this hand in easy terms. We start with 23 BBs so we are not tearing it up with a big stack so we are at the point where if we hit we are going with it. It gets to us pre and we are getting 9 to 1 with a one gapper hand. Im calling that all day especially if you feel disciplined post flop and know that sometimes you will make a pair and still have to fold. I am actually calling in this spot with a lot worse than J9 off. Any two gapper plus I am probably calling here to see a flop with that price. With this many villains when we hit we are going to make some chips and if we presumably dont hit then we will be good enough to fold when we should fold.

On the flop we get a tricky flop for us since we have mid pair and gutter. More than enough to keep us enticed but if a villain were to bet the flop then we have to decide based on sizing what we are doing. More than likely a bet there would be Qx or better. Luckily no one bets and we get to see a turn for free.

On the turn we nail a straight and SPR is a little less then 2 before any action. Are we folding a straight with an SPR less than 2 especially with no flush on the board? Im not so to me once this card comes down then it is all about how do and when do you want to get it in, not if. Personally knowing there could be some club draws that might come along I would just jam the turn knowing I am not folding. If someone has KJ in this spot as they did then they just do. 23 BBs to start the hand and SPR of 2 with a straight means I am breaking my arm getting my chips in unless maybe its the ass end of the straight which in this case its not (beatable straight but it takes 2 specific cards to beat our straight and not one). As played its a call when the jam comes especially since after our call we are getting an even better price. I would expect to be chopping but there are still chips to be gained in this chop due to all the villains in the hand and the lead out on the turn that already occurred.

Jon Poker · Apr 24, 2021

Calling pre is fine here for one more BB obviously we are looking to flop the world or not and we don't.

But then the action checks through and we bink the turn -- we have to call the turn bet but this is where things get weird...villan bets OOP into 4 other opponents - which conveys strength in itself - we are too strong to fold but cannot raise in this spot. As if this weren't bad enough, now we get a 3rd caller behind - then the red flag goes up...we - as in all 3 of us - get raised. If this doesn't scream the nuts idk what does.

Multi way pots are supposed to be played very cautiously since we are up against multiple ranges and in such scenarios facing multiple ranges - we and our villans have almost zero bluffs...so when there is a bet, 2 callers behind and villan STILL finds the raise - its a snap fold with the 2nd nuts here. Even on our stack size it's just a fold. If we were heads up - its an entirely different story and we are allowed to go broke here for sure. The kicker in this situation is the pot being multiway - if villan is competent on any level - they cannot be raising a bare Jx straight in this spot - because in theory they will only get called by the nuts.

Conclusion for me, snap fold turn. 99% of the time based on the actions of this hand, we are never good here and are calling for a chop at best. Save the 17BB or so that you have left and find a better spot.

AKQ · Jun 29, 2021

Satiivas said:
Middle stage of the tourney.
The villain seemed to be an older person according to his picture, who either check-called everything or when betting, used enormous sizes, also with mediocre hands.

PokerStars, $6.69 + $0.81 - Hold'em No Limit - 350/700 (110 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

lolo10125 (UTG): 48,725 (70 bb)
bipex99 (UTG+1): 11,991 (17 bb)
aron_wawa (MP): 33,624 (48 bb)
S.GabrielR (MP+1): 29,370 (42 bb)
Opie19678 (LP): 16,649 (24 bb)
ElTouna (CO): 9,098 (13 bb)
edgedge (BU): 23,872 (34 bb)
Johnny50922 (SB): 45,495 (65 bb)
satiivas1 (BB): 16,226 (23 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,040) Hero (satiivas1) is BB with J♣ 9♦
lolo10125 (UTG) raises to 1,400, 3 players fold, Opie19678 (LP) calls 1,400, 1 fold, edgedge (BU) calls 1,400, Johnny50922 (SB) calls 1,050, satiivas1 (BB) calls 700

Flop: (7,990) Q♣ 8♦ 9♥ (5 players)
Johnny50922 (SB) checks, satiivas1 (BB) checks, lolo10125 (UTG) checks, Opie19678 (LP) checks, edgedge (BU) checks

Turn: (7,990) T♣ (5 players)
Johnny50922 (SB) bets 3,995, satiivas1 (BB) calls 3,995, lolo10125 (UTG) calls 3,995, Opie19678 (LP) folds, edgedge (BU) raises to 22,362 (all-in), Johnny50922 (SB) folds, satiivas1 (BB) calls 10,721 (all-in), lolo10125 (UTG) folds

River: (45,412) 9♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 45,412

Showdown:
edgedge (BU) shows K♠ J♦ (a straight, Nine to King)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 73%, Flop: 28%, Turn: 97%, River: 100%)

satiivas1 (BB) shows J♣ 9♦ (a straight, Eight to Queen)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 27%, Flop: 72%, Turn: 3%, River: 0%)

edgedge (BU) wins 45,412

yes their was a way out
when we play hi/lo games we begin to understand the -ev of playing for split pots
if you could have made a read that said
he has a straight
you could have folded as you were only invested by less than 2k at that moment
and aiming to split 7k

hope it helps

AKQ · Jun 29, 2021

great players ,make GREAT FOLDS

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$7.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Any way for me to get out of this hand?

Satiivas

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