$ NL HE MTT: I folded AK on the bubble, would you fold?

Gritz18 · Aug 13, 2023

It happened this afternoon in the Cardschat $100 Silver freeroll on 888.

I was with only 5.8bb and two players left to enter the money, the action was very strange, with a limp at the beginning of the table, a reise right after and all-in, I think I folded well in this situation.

And would you fold, in this situation?🤔

888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 400/800 (80 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

dzsire (UTG): 7,814 (10 bb)
stepbystep14 (UTG+1): 16,268 (20 bb)
ms_attack (MP): 18,274 (23 bb)
Shooter0111 (MP+1): 2,756 (3 bb)
pickpocketRL (LP): 3,320 (4 bb)
Higinosantos (CO): 4,926 (6 bb)
Gritz18 (BU): 4,795 (6 bb)
lioducil (SB): 11,536 (14 bb)
Harlley777 (BB): 4,692 (6 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,920) Hero (Gritz18) is BTN with A♠ K♣
1 fold, stepbystep14 (UTG+1) calls 800, ms_attack (MP) raises to 2,400, 1 fold, pickpocketRL (LP) 3-bets to 3,240 (all-in), 1 fold, Gritz18 (BU) folds, 2 players fold, stepbystep14 (UTG+1) calls 2,440, ms_attack (MP) calls 840

Flop: (11,640) 3♣ 7♣ 8♠ (3 players, 1 all-in)
stepbystep14 (UTG+1) bets 12,948 (all-in), ms_attack (MP) calls 12,948

Turn: (37,536) J♣ (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: (37,536) K♦ (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 37,536

Showdown:
stepbystep14 (UTG+1) shows Q♦ Q♣ (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 24%, River: 0%)

ms_attack (MP) shows A♦ A♥ (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 66%, Flop: 74%, Turn: 64%, River: 100%)

pickpocketRL (LP) shows 9♣ 9♠ (a pair of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 17%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 12%, River: 0%)

ms_attack (MP) wins 37,536

hilary antonik filho · Aug 13, 2023

Gritz, it would depend on the moment, being me (crazy as I am) first to play would All in, last to play after 2 All in, it's fold

kunkgreen · Aug 13, 2023

Easy fold I guess.

I believe this was a situation where we want to happen to be able to fold a hand like this...
...especially since it's so close to the money and one of the players in the hand is about to go down.

Here we must consider the objectives, right...
It could be that a beat with AK would make it big enough to take you to higher positions and better returns if you win...
...but according to how the opening of the hand happened, I think it's a fair fold, even with hands best! LOL

Gritz18 · Aug 13, 2023

kunkgreen said:
It could be that a beat with AK would make it big enough to take you to higher positions and better returns if you win...

If I win, that's the question, which hasn't been happening a lot lately.😁🤣

otters · Aug 13, 2023

You did what you thought was right at the time.
I would have done the same.

Poker Orifice · Aug 13, 2023

I'm never folding in that spot. An easy chance to quadruple up (if utg1 folds), giving you a shot at being able to go deeper in the tournament when there's a bunch of overly tight shortstacks on the table, many who are trying to eek into the money and once there, many will be still too tight while trying to ladder up.

fundiver199 · Aug 13, 2023

Its not the most crazy fold, since LP was at a risk, and if he bust, there is a decent chance, you are in the money, before the blinds come back. But personally I am not folding here in a freeroll. Its extremely results oriented to focus on the fact, two players had premium hands. Thats definitely not the most common outcome. Lots of times you will be against hands like AQ or AJ, and often UTG+1 will fold leading to a 3-way pot with a decent overlay. The only player with a somewhat strong range here is LP, because he put himself at risk with no fold equity. And he cant even bust you. If MP take the main pot, but you win the side pot, you still have more or less the same amount of chips, that you started with. So for me this is a jam, but its not the most crazy spot to fold AK due to the multiway action.

kunkgreen · Aug 13, 2023

Poker Orifice said:
I'm never folding in that spot. An easy chance to quadruple up (if utg1 folds), giving you a shot at being able to go deeper in the tournament when there's a bunch of overly tight shortstacks on the table, many who are trying to eek into the money and once there, many will be still too tight while trying to ladder up.

Although AKs only have a 2% chance more than offsuited ones, I believe it would be more worth considering calling, although I would still fold in this situation. Or I would only pay if I really had no patience to play.

There are only 2 players left to go down and reach the money and one of them is already involved in the hand...
In my opinion it's not a very hard fold to find (except if most of the people involved in the hand have that little 'unintelligent' mark).

Another problem here is that quadrupling the chips wouldn't even guarantee us in the money (although it practically guarantees us, but it almost isn't).

By the way, something I observe a lot in microstakes games in general are players who are in the top positions and leave because they can't let go of a premium hand, even in unfavorable spots.

Need this cost/benefit analysis is worth making a decision.

Poker Orifice · Aug 13, 2023

kunkgreen said:
Although AKs only have a 2% chance more than offsuited ones, I believe it would be more worth considering calling, although I would still fold in this situation. Or I would only pay if I really had no patience to play.

There are only 2 players left to go down and reach the money and one of them is already involved in the hand...
In my opinion it's not a very hard fold to find (except if most of the people involved in the hand have that little 'unintelligent' mark).

Another problem here is that quadrupling the chips wouldn't even guarantee us in the money (although it practically guarantees us, but it almost isn't).

By the way, something I observe a lot in microstakes games in general are players who are in the top positions and leave because they can't let go of a premium hand, even in unfavorable spots.

Need this cost/benefit analysis is worth making a decision.

the first payouts are so incredibly small, there's little difference between 'making the money' and busting out on the bubble (aside from maybe a psychological one).
cost/benefit (risk/reward). I'm not sure if anyone is considering the difference it'll make for us to be sitting with 16bb's, vs. 4? on tables with a bunch of tight short stacks.

Poker Orifice · Aug 13, 2023

kunkgreen said:
Another problem here is that quadrupling the chips wouldn't even guarantee us in the money (although it practically guarantees us, but it almost isn't).

It wouldn't? Why wouldn't it?
Folding doesn't guarantee us popping the bubble and maybe we blind down further to 2bb's... or whatever. The chances of us getting much higher than just a min. cash isn't very good.

fundiver199 · Aug 13, 2023

Poker Orifice said:
I'm not sure if anyone is considering the difference it'll make for us to be sitting with 16bb's, vs. 4? on tables with a bunch of tight short stacks.

This is absolutely true. If we end up with something like 16bb, we can find lots of good spots to pick up further chips by jamming on shorter stacks, who have to call us very tight due to the bubble.

Poker Orifice said:
Folding doesn't guarantee us popping the bubble and maybe we blind down further to 2bb's... or whatever.

Also very true. This time LP did in fact bust. But he is the player with the strongest range, and UTG+1 will not always come along. So maybe 40-50% of the time LP survive this hand, and then we still need two more players to bust to make the money.

Poker Orifice said:
The chances of us getting much higher than just a min. cash isn't very good.

Its not, and when a min-cash is less than a dollar, we really should be focused on making the final table and the top spots.

puzzlefish · Aug 13, 2023

I don't think folding is wrong here. Personally I don't like going into an all-in community pot with any connector that isn't suited, regardless of how low my stack gets. AKo is top of that group of hands but more often than not it will bust, especially with this kind of action.

When you're down to 6bb you're looking for a chance to double up and stay alive. Usually that's going to be by jamming into one other player and no more than that. Sometimes you just don't get that opportunity and you will be faced with choices like in this hand. But maybe by folding you will still get a better opportunity over the next couple of orbits or so.

Much better idea is to not get down to the point of poverty poker in the first place.

kunkgreen · Aug 13, 2023

Poker Orifice said:
It wouldn't? Why wouldn't it?
Folding doesn't guarantee us popping the bubble and maybe we blind down further to 2bb's... or whatever. The chances of us getting much higher than just a min. cash isn't very good.

To win, we first need to survive the ITM...
So as soon as we get here (post-bubble), we will evaluate the game conditions for victory and the next goals.

It's often a common mistake to downplay the few chips we have when we're short, but actually playing extremely tight isn't pleasant.

It is also a matter of choosing risk/benefit...
Because when we reach the ITM in a freeroll we will always be in the EV+ zone (since we can't lose our money, only win...
So this is an extremely positive point despite the low values.

But these are just my thoughts...
As I said, I would easily fold this spot in a decent game without batting an eye, in a freeroll I would be more inclined to call, but I believe other factors would affect my decision as to what we know about the villains... etc

fundiver199 · Aug 13, 2023

I put the hand into ICMizer, and the program can not analyse this exact situation, because there is to much previous action. The closest approximation is to pretend, there is no limper and then lock MPs range at something reasonable like 25% of hands. And in that case AKo is actually a fold but so close to breakeven, that its not a real mistake to get it in. So a spot like this all depends on, what our priorities are. In a freeroll I would always go after the top places, but if this was a regular MTT at the top of my buy-in range, I would fold.

psycodelic1 · Aug 13, 2023

Well good fold but nowing the short stack strategy in the bubble you could fold pre or shove having 6bb AK is an easy shove but when youre instinct works you could mix it in good playing limp fold great fold

Canaldo Kao · Aug 13, 2023

With that hand you were short stacked with, you go all-in or just fold your hand and wait for the bubble to burst!

it's just my opinion!

georgi krastev · Aug 14, 2023

Gritz18 said:
the action was very strange, with a limp at the beginning of the table, a reise right after and all-in,

I've noticed this movement in the last few tournaments I've been participating in;

limp; raising; all-in.

Trap - in a word.

Gritz18 said:
I think I folded well in this situation.

Yeah, it was well... (imo).

Gritz18 said:
And would you fold, in this situation?🤔

I would fold, if i want to reach the ITM.

Otherwise, as the above fellow posts say: this is a good place to quadruple…

But it is very difficult against 3, it's AKo after all, but not impossible.

Good game! 💓

fundiver199 · Aug 14, 2023

georgi krastev said:
Yeah, it was well... (imo).
View attachment 340241

Of course AK is always in terrible shape, when someone else have AA. But we dont base decisions in poker on knowning our opponents hole cards, and MP is not raising a range of only AA. He is raising many, many other hands as well, and we even block AA. So yes this was an ok fold, but NOT because MP happened to have AA and would have busted us

georgi krastev · Aug 14, 2023

fundiver199 said:
But we dont base decisions in poker on knowning our opponents hole cards

I didn't say that, nor do I draw any conclusions from the cards revealed!

In fact, AK is in terrible shape against any pair; flip coin.

And it is also the most overrated hand (imo) by many players.

Goggelheimer · Aug 14, 2023

Gritz18 said:
It happened this afternoon in the Cardschat $100 Silver freeroll on 888.

I was with only 5.8bb and two players left to enter the money, the action was very strange, with a limp at the beginning of the table, a reise right after and all-in, I think I folded well in this situation.

And would you fold, in this situation?🤔

888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 400/800 (80 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

dzsire (UTG): 7,814 (10 bb)
stepbystep14 (UTG+1): 16,268 (20 bb)
ms_attack (MP): 18,274 (23 bb)
Shooter0111 (MP+1): 2,756 (3 bb)
pickpocketRL (LP): 3,320 (4 bb)
Higinosantos (CO): 4,926 (6 bb)
Gritz18 (BU): 4,795 (6 bb)
lioducil (SB): 11,536 (14 bb)
Harlley777 (BB): 4,692 (6 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,920) Hero (Gritz18) is BTN with A♠ K♣
1 fold, stepbystep14 (UTG+1) calls 800, ms_attack (MP) raises to 2,400, 1 fold, pickpocketRL (LP) 3-bets to 3,240 (all-in), 1 fold, Gritz18 (BU) folds, 2 players fold, stepbystep14 (UTG+1) calls 2,440, ms_attack (MP) calls 840

Flop: (11,640) 3♣ 7♣ 8♠ (3 players, 1 all-in)
stepbystep14 (UTG+1) bets 12,948 (all-in), ms_attack (MP) calls 12,948

Turn: (37,536) J♣ (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: (37,536) K♦ (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 37,536

Showdown:
stepbystep14 (UTG+1) shows Q♦ Q♣ (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 24%, River: 0%)

ms_attack (MP) shows A♦ A♥ (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 66%, Flop: 74%, Turn: 64%, River: 100%)

pickpocketRL (LP) shows 9♣ 9♠ (a pair of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 17%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 12%, River: 0%)

ms_attack (MP) wins 37,536

With so many action before you, AK is an easy and correct fold.
It is clear that at least JJ+ hands are in the range of UTG+1(with a tricky limp play),
following the “normal” strategy that you should reraise an UTG/+1 limp or raise with a much stronger hand, you could assume ms_attack is on KK+ and perhaps AKs.
The pickpoket shorty move is the hope that both before block their hands with some kind of broadway A combos.
With this action before me, my normal thought is, they must know something that I don't know, so I fold.

Vallet · Aug 14, 2023

The actions of the opponents indicate that the probability of doubling the stack with AK is minimal in the multipot. And there's a bubble here. AK is devalued, so it is important to monitor the situation at the table.

fundiver199 · Aug 14, 2023

georgi krastev said:
In fact, AK is in terrible shape against any pair; flip coin.

Having 44-48% equity is not being in "terrible shape", and especially not when there is a big overlay from blinds and antes. Which there is, when we only start the hand with 6BB. Even against KK AK has decent equity of around 30%. So most of the time AK is a hand, we should be very happy to stack-off with preflop, when we are short stacked in a tournament. But there are exceptions, and multiway action like this near the bubble is one of them. Getting it in here against realistic ranges is certainly winning us chips, but because of ICM its not winning us money.

JTifenbah · Aug 14, 2023

Depends on a tournament you play, if it was a decent min cash I would fold that hand. For freeroll with 5 bb im not sure i would be able to fold AK.

ADRI7HO · Aug 14, 2023

In this situation, I would have folded as well, because raising and re-raising is a coinflip at best, and I want to build a stack before ITM and not do a kamikaze action.
In addition, it was also revealed that UTG was limping with a big stack premium hand.
Good fold.

Gritz18 · Aug 14, 2023

Thank you all for the analysis, it's always good to have your opinion so I can try to improve my game.🙂

$ NL HE MTT: I folded AK on the bubble, would you fold?

Gritz18

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