$25 NL HE Full Ring: Top set getting raised on the flop and then facing a bad runout

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.10/$.25

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

$

Not playing cash that often, so limited information about the opponents. BTN (main Villain) was playing VPIP 18/ PFR 12 over 49 hands. Do you 3-bet the flop or check-jam turn? As played call or fold the river?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

NA: $0.00 (0 bb)
UTG: $24.87 (99 bb)
MP (Hero): $41.38 (166 bb)
MP+1: $42.00 (168 bb)
CO: $28.14 (113 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB: $23.75 (95 bb)
BB: $20.00 (80 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with T♠ T♥
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.62, 2 players fold, BTN calls $0.62, 1 fold, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.96) 5♠ 4♠ T♣ (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BTN raises to $2.61, BB folds, Hero calls $1.86

Turn: ($7.18) 8♦ (3 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.16, Hero calls $5.16

River: ($17.50) 6♥ (3 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $16.61 (all-in), Hero?

 

[kunkgreen]

I haven't played cash games in a long time, but let's try to work this hand...
Cash game button calling ranges are usually quite wide, right?
However, it seems we're facing a player who appears to be tight, even in a small sample of hands.

Pre-flop:

Standard opening... I'm not very familiar with cash game opening sizes anymore, but 2.5bb should always be within it!
A call here from the button by a seemingly tight player seems to concentrate suited connector hands, low/medium pairs (they should increase the 3bet/call ratio as the pairs get higher), but I still think 99-JJ should still have a higher frequency of calls than 3bets.

We'll also have many suited Axs, Kxs, Qxs and Broadway hands.
I think we can rule out some things from above like QQ-AA, AKo, AKs.
BB makes a standard defense with good odds, although he should still fold way more than 50% of his hands, right?

Flop:

(remembering that I'm not familiar with cash game sizing)
I like a bet here, to see where we stand, and of course, to fill the pot with a great hand on a flop that isn't that uncoordinated.
We received a raise on our continuation bet, but so far, we know we have the best hand.
I believe a call here is better to re-evaluate on the next street. I mean, we have a strong hand that can still improve...
For me, a 4-bet here is also okay, especially since we wouldn't fold the villain's all-in, but I prefer to go with the flow.

Turn:

Well, I also like the check here, since the button took the initiative on the flop, let's wait for him to bet!
The 8 here completed some sequences that aren't so likely yet.
What hands would he raise his continuation bet on a flop like that? Low sets? Jacks? Aces of spades? Would some of those low hands with A2s, A3s make that 3-bet with so much equity to do so?
Two pairs?

I think we still have the best hand here, and even though we can improve on the next street, I believe we should pull the trigger!
We're still getting calls from many worse hands.
Would the only acceptable raise size here be all-in?

River:

Well, we've made it this far, and now a card has come down that doesn't make us very comfortable.
A lot of lost draws too... Would the villain play this way until the end with his losing draws?
We're not comfortable, but I still think we're beating a lot of things that would play the way the villain has played so far. I really don't know what to do here. Maybe split the action? lol

 

[Station_Master]

I would 3bet the flop. Its multiway so BU almost always has a decent draw or good made hand. If we only call we allow him to check back turn and realsie equity with his draws.

As played one of the main draws gets there on the turn, though it is only 4 combos (assuming he never 3bets 76s pre). He could still value bet worse, so its a mandatory continue of course. So we need to decide between raise or call. Oop i prefer raising as he may not bluff his flush draws on the river and if he folds out that equity its a good result too.

River is gross, but he shouldnt have that much 7x and the 6 reduces his 76 combos, so its obly really 76s and 87s and the latter might check turn. A7ss is another logical hand too. Its definitely a call though as he only needs 2 or 3 bluff combos for this to be a profitable call (inc lower sets that put you on an overpair).

 

[fundiver199]

Thank you for the comments. With hindsight I agree, that 3-betting the flop or at least check-jamming turn would have been better. Sometimes people raise top pair on the flop to "find out where they are", and of course we want to keep in that kind of hand, since its basically drawing dead. But with top set we heavily block top pair, so most of his range is draws and strong made hands like sets or maybe overpairs. And these are usually not going to raise-fold the flop, if I keep my sizing reasonable.

As for the river decision my instinct was "oh f... now I have to fold". But then I also got around to the conclusion, that there is not much 7X in the Villains range. And even less in mine, if we think, the Villain is good enough to hand read. I dont open 76s from up front, and I dont call 77 on both flop and turn, so I can pretty much only have A7ss and maybe 87ss. And therefore the board is not quite as scary to either player, as it looks. So I flicked in the call, and here is the result:

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[fa1920]

Top set on such a coordinated board is always a tricky spot to navigate when facing aggression.

To answer your questions directly:
Flop: I strongly prefer a 3-bet here. When a tight 18/12 player raises your c-bet on a 5♠ 4♠ T♣ board, their range is heavily weighted towards lower sets (55, 44) and massive combo draws (like 7♠ 6♠, A♠ 2♠). By just flat-calling, you are under-representing your hand and allowing those draws to realize their equity way too cheaply. You want to charge them the maximum price while you are far ahead.

Turn: The 8♦ brings even more straight draws. As played, check-jamming the turn is a very valid option since the SPR is getting lower and you want to get the money in before a scare card hits the river.

River: The 6♥ is an absolutely brutal card. It completes all the 7x straight draws (like 87s or 76s) that make perfect sense with his flop raise. Facing a jam from a tight profile, it's a very borderline decision. He could be value-owning himself with 55 or 44, or bluffing missed spades, but players at these stakes usually under-bluff in this exact spot. It's a painful situation, but I would lean toward a disciplined fold. Fast-playing the flop would have likely prevented this river nightmare

 

[noprob]

Not playing cash that often, so limited information about the opponents. BTN (main Villain) was playing VPIP 18/ PFR 12 over 49 hands. Do you 3-bet the flop or check-jam turn? As played call or fold the river?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

NA: $0.00 (0 bb)
UTG: $24.87 (99 bb)
MP (Hero): $41.38 (166 bb)
MP+1: $42.00 (168 bb)
CO: $28.14 (113 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB: $23.75 (95 bb)
BB: $20.00 (80 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with T♠ T♥
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.62, 2 players fold, BTN calls $0.62, 1 fold, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.96) 5♠ 4♠ T♣ (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BTN raises to $2.61, BB folds, Hero calls $1.86

Turn: ($7.18) 8♦ (3 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.16, Hero calls $5.16

River: ($17.50) 6♥ (3 players)

Hero checks, BTN bets $16.61 (all-in), Hero?

Optimuspoker online solver : vs Flop Raise, it's a call 81% of the time.

 

[noprob]

Turn: ($7.18) 8♦ (3 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.16, Hero calls $5.16

Turn, Optimus CALL 85% of the time.

 

[noprob]

River: ($17.50) 6♥ (3 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $16.61 (all-in), Hero?

River : even VS an overbet, Optimus Poker CALLS 100% :



I was surprised so I took 1 hour to run Piosolver and it confirms Optimus insta solution is perfectly optimal :

Vs 50% pot bet River :


VS River SHOVE :

 

[fundiver199]

Well its good to hear, that at least my line was GTO. Against a human player I do think, I got a little lucky, that he still went for it on the river even with 4 cards to a straight. Its a disaster, if he check back his worse set, when he would have called a raise on the earlier streets, and many humans dont bluff as much, as they are supposed to.

 

[eetenor]

Top set on such a coordinated board is always a tricky spot to navigate when facing aggression.

To answer your questions directly:
Flop: I strongly prefer a 3-bet here. When a tight 18/12 player raises your c-bet on a 5♠ 4♠ T♣ board, their range is heavily weighted towards lower sets (55, 44) and massive combo draws (like 7♠ 6♠, A♠ 2♠). By just flat-calling, you are under-representing your hand and allowing those draws to realize their equity way too cheaply. You want to charge them the maximum price while you are far ahead.

Turn: The 8♦ brings even more straight draws. As played, check-jamming the turn is a very valid option since the SPR is getting lower and you want to get the money in before a scare card hits the river.

River: The 6♥ is an absolutely brutal card. It completes all the 7x straight draws (like 87s or 76s) that make perfect sense with his flop raise. Facing a jam from a tight profile, it's a very borderline decision. He could be value-owning himself with 55 or 44, or bluffing missed spades, but players at these stakes usually under-bluff in this exact spot. It's a painful situation, but I would lean toward a disciplined fold. Fast-playing the flop would have likely prevented this river nightmare

100% agree with the need to change our strat on flop or on turn lots of hands call the turn jam.