JJ vs SB Squeeze: Full 4-Bet EV Breakdown (Range-Based Study)

[tiscoatthedisco]

Hi, I just been analyzing my JJ hand from the CO on a 6-max table, trying to figure out the value of my 4-bet and also my all in raise on the flop.

---------------------------------------------------------------------->

Here is my hand and my thoughts are below.

---------------------------------------------------------------------->

GG Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 100 BB
UTG: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 7)
Hero (CO): 103 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
SB: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Jd Jc
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB raises to 9.5 BB, Hero raises to 34 BB, fold, BB calls 24.5 BB

Flop : (71 BB, 2 players) 8d 9d 8s
BB checks, Hero bets 69 BB and is all-in, BB calls 66 BB and is all-in

Turn : (203 BB, 2 players) 4h

River : (203 BB, 2 players) 8c

Hero shows Jd Jc (Full House, Eights full of Jacks)
(Pre 19%, Flop 15%, Turn 5%)

BB shows Ac As (Full House, Eights full of Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 85%, Turn 95%)

BB wins 192 BB

______________________________________________________________________
Villain:

3-Bet range: 10%. = 77+, A2s+, KQs, AQo+, KQo
Calling 4-bet range: 60%= TT-77, AdAh, KdKh, QdQh, JhJs, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo
Fold range= 40%,
5-bet range: 20%= AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JhJs, AKs, A9s, AKo

1. I started by assigning villain a 3-bet squeeze range even though I only had 7 hands on him I took a rought estimate of 10%= 77+, A2s+, KQs, AQo+, KQo.
2. I then estimated he folds to be about 50% of his hands against my 4-bet and continues with around 4.8% = TT-99, AdAh, KdKh, QdQh, JhJs, AQs+, Ad9d, Ah9h, AQo+, KQo some of these pocket pairs are just suited for me to select him slow playing these once in awhile.
3. I estimated his 5-bet range to be around 2% = AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JhJs, AKs, A9s, AKo, with some occasional bluffs.

Then I used EV formula to value my action of 4-betting and using this:

EV Formula:
EV = (Fold% × Reward)
   + (Call% × (equity × TotalPot − Risk))
   + (5-bet% × −Risk)

EV = (0.4 x 15,5BB) + 0,6 x (0.63x 71BB - 31BB) + (0,2 x -31BB) = 6.2BB + 8,238BB - 6,2 = 8,238BB.

So I calculate this play to get me around +8.2BB in the long run...
I'm not really sure this is the right way to evaluate if this is the right play cause we still have the flop to play with around 69-70BB behind still.
I also think the all in on the flop is very tight, I can't see him calling me with anything worse then some flush draws with overcards which he still can make on later streets, the only hand that is worse that could call me is maybe TT and 77.

Is there anything I could have done different, please let me know your thoughts.

 

[fundiver199]

First of all this is a cash game hand, so it should be posted in cash game hand analysis, not in tournament poker. A moderator can move it, but its easier for everyone, if you post in the right forum yourself.

Preflop
With the danger of being a little results oriented, because you shared the results, I am not sure, we always have to 4-bet JJ here. Yes BB is incentivized to 3-bet a little wider, because its a squeeze spot, but in general we should respect BB 3-bets quite a bit, because people can call and see a cheap flop closing the action. So for most people if they have a hand, that could 3-bet light, like maybe A5s, QJs, KQo or 88, they are going to call and see a flop instead.

And if we are going to 4-bet, I like a smaller sizing. You put in 34% of your stack with a 4-bet, and when you put in that much, you cant really fold to a 5-bet. Or at least you lose a ton of chips, if you do. This mean, you dont leave your opponent room enough to 5-bet jam and think, they have fold equity, or to call and see a flop and then get away postflop. Its almost like, you are forcing your opponent to have a hand, that beat your JJ, when they continue. Or maybe occationally AK, which you are flipping with.

Flop
This is related to preflop sizing, because when you 4-bet so large, the stack to pot ration is only around 1. Which... I mean... I guess its ok to just go with JJ as an overpair then. But I would much rather have a deeper stack to pot ratio and use a small C-bet sizing on the flop. A sizing, that put hands like AK or AQ in a tough spot. When you jam for almost pot, these hands have an easy fold. Which ok this gives you protection, so its not the end of the world, but you are playing your hand so fast, that you are beat more often than not, when you get action.

I recommend this free training video:

 

[Baco]

Interesting hand and nice breakdown — you clearly put thought into the ranges and EV.

A few points:

1. Preflop 4-bet sizing
Your 34BB 4-bet over a squeeze to 9.5BB is quite large (especially 100BB deep). That sizing almost commits you versus most 5-bet ranges. If you're planning to fold to a shove sometimes, a smaller 4-bet (around 22–26BB) might keep ranges wider and reduce variance.

2. Range construction assumptions
Your 5-bet range assumption (20% including suited broadways, some Ax, etc.) feels very wide for a squeeze spot at 500NL, even with small sample size. Many players are significantly tighter in 5-bet pots, especially after facing a large 4-bet. If villain’s 5-bet range is closer to something like QQ+, AK (maybe AQs), your EV calculation shifts a lot.

3. Flop shove dynamics
On 9♠ 8♦ 3♠, your hand (JJ) is in a tough middle region. When you jam, what worse hands realistically call?

• AK often folds without a spade
• AQ/KQ likely fold
• You mostly get called by overpairs and strong combo draws

So the shove may be isolating yourself against hands that are ahead or flipping with high equity.

4. I think the key question is:
Are you generating enough fold equity versus his actual range, not your estimated wide one?

If villain is tighter preflop than assumed, this may become a marginal or even slightly negative play long term.

Overall:
I don’t think it’s terrible — but it’s very sensitive to how wide his 5-bet range truly is. If he's capable of 5-betting light and folding AK/AQ often, it’s good. If not, it’s probably too optimistic.

Curious: do you have more hands on him now? That would heavily influence the conclusion.

 

[Station_Master]

As others have said your 4bet size is way to big.

On the flop there is no reason to shove, you should be betting small in 4bet pots where its not that connected. Makes it tougher for his unpaired hands. By shoving you are practically turning your hand into a bluff as you are really just hoping villain has exactly TT and calls off