I need help on how to figure out when someone flops a set..

[IcyBlueAce]

This seems to be my biggest money loser is when I get pwnd by someone who flopped a set, or even got one on the turn/river.

 

[bazerk]

I had probs recognizing when this occurs as well IcyBlueAce, here's a link to a really good thread with excellent pointers. GL.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/tips-recognize-you-being-setmined-cash-166086/

 

[Mase31683]

If you're getting hurt that badly by sets, I'd guess you're overplaying some hands. It's going to be harder to know someone has a set on a wet board, since they could be playing a draw, but if a villain blows up on a dry board, he's either got a solid piece or just decided to win this pot.

Another general tip would be opponents with low aggression factors. If these guys start putting much money in the pot, (betting or raising) you should be pretty wary.

 

[imtakinurcash]

i dunno wot stakes ur playing but i found over many hands that if ur at 2nl or 5nl and u get re raised on a dry flop and ur holding n over pair, that means 2 things they have n over pair better or worse then urs or they have a set!! just my observation.
More so in FR. 6 max is a lil diff.

 

[thepokerkid123]

Against good players, if they hang around long enough in the hand (i.e. betting/calling/raising) their range is usually defined to one of a few hands, this shouldn't be difficult. Particularly when you're representing a big pocket pair and they're good enough to know that, be concerned if they're willing to put a lot of chips in.

Against fish, they tend to do stupid things to give away the strength of their hand. They'll check raise, they'll slow play and throw out odd looking bets (these can actually be dangerous, as they can look like bad bluffs so use your history with them and the size of the odds they're laying you to make your decision). Nits also will finally have a hand they're prepared to put a lot of chips in, if you get raised by a nit and don't think he can beat your TPTK or overpair, there's something wrong.
Of course, if you have a good hand yourself but don't have position then you're often going to lose a big chunk of your stack to weak players because them calling you on the flop/turn is expected with a wide range, and it's only their river raise that will give away their hand and often you'll be priced into the call.

If they turn/river their set then you're going to have to pay them off, more often than not if you get away from it then it's going to be because you put them on the wrong hand, but one that could also beat you.

 

[SavagePenguin]

This seems to be my biggest money loser is when I get pwnd by someone who flopped a set, or even got one on the turn/river.

Beluga Theorem: A check raise on the turn means that a single overpair or top pair/top kicker is usually no good.

Other than that, it's just picking up what the players are doing. A fair chunk of people limp in early position with their small pairs and T/Js type hands. They make this weak bet because they have a weak hand that they are trying to draw-to-gold with.
Unless they are calling machines, simply avoid playing big posts post-flop with them.

Another thing to keep in mind is that post flop, an overpair is just one pair. If you are deep stacked, stackingwith just one pair is often a mistake.

In cash games (ring games) I get excited when a deep-stacked, tight player opens under the gun and I have a pocket pair like 6/6. I know that if I hit my 6, I can win a massive pot if I hit my set. If I don't hit my set, I fold and get out cheap.

 

[Mase31683]

Baluga theorem doesn't write off overpairs quite as much. TPTK yes.

To quote Baluga:

"However, to slightly alter Isura's example, lets say we have A

A

, same pf action as before and the flop (pot~15bb) comes down:

K

2

2

UTG checks, we bet 12bb, Button calls, UTG folds.

the turn (pot ~36bb) comes:
J

We bet 25bb, Button raises all in.

Here, I think we should call. We are very likely to see KJ here, as well as AK or KQ. Occassionally we see a random 2, but we are ahead of his range more often than not."

 

[thepokerkid123]

I can't say I've ever made much use of the Baluga Theorem, I think because the only post I can find on it seems to be a continuation of an original explanation.

The whole point of it is to strongly re-evaluate your hand facing a turn raise, aren't we doing that anyway? If the raise is consistent with their actions before the turn, then the raise only indicates continued strength (or a 2nd barrel). If on the other hand they've been playing passive then come out with a raise, you've got to consider a slow played hand, a bluff or a hand that just got made.
Also other than with opponent specific reads, when isn't a check-raise more dangerous than a raise?

I don't disagree with it, I just think I must be missing something because I've never been in a situation where I've fallen back on the Baluga Theorem to clear things up...

If it was really just "re-evaluate the hand when you're raised" and "be more concerned about a check-raise than a raise" then it wouldn't be focussing on the turn. So what am I missing?

 

[Stu_Ungar]

If it was really just "re-evaluate the hand when you're raised" and "be more concerned about a check-raise than a raise" then it wouldn't be focussing on the turn. So what am I missing?

The size of the pot being re-raised.

 

[thepokerkid123]

Thanks.

 

[Sean Pilgrim]

fyi, posting links to other forums is looked down upon.

 

[doops]

It's a hard situation. I have been trying to train myself to always include sets into my "What could he have?" calculations. I still forget sometimes. And the low PPs that hit are the hardest for me to detect, since I rarely play them. I tend to think that low cards cannot have helped anyone. Sigh!

Occasionally, I figure out what's going on. Most times, though... nope.

And the set-over-set is one of the most painful to be on the bad side of. It's very unusual that I find myself suspecting this one.

 

[Sean Pilgrim]

Their action PF means a lot.

1. Did they limp and then call a 4xBB 5xBB raise preflop?

2. Now that the flops out do they flat out bet hard or check/raise?

3. Turn comes out and another unrelenting pot sized bet comes from the initial limper?

If you answered Yes to 1, Yes to 2, and Yes to 3... you're likely up against a set. if these three things fall in line with each other

 

[Mase31683]

If the raise is consistent with their actions before the turn, then the raise only indicates continued strength (or a 2nd barrel)

This concept is applied to a case in which you were the preflop raiser. Therefore the villain's action is not consistent. He is only calling preflop and on the flop, then raising on the turn.

 

[tdude]

If you are getting overplayed by sets, than you are probably playing too many hands. You should probably tighten up your game a little bit. Trying playing for a little bit with very strong hands. This will enable you to bet stronger preflop and get low pocket pairs out of the pot.

See if this system works. It is hard to tell sometimes when people flop a set, but maybe if you do not have a two pair after the flop and your opponent bets strong, you should fold more often.

 

[Weregoat]

fyi, posting links to other forums is looked down upon.

My wit (and motivation) has left me, but I originally wanted to make a joke about posting a link to something unrelated to poker. Like you know . . . milking a cat.

 

[billyth3kid]

the tighter you play the easier it is to get away from sets and QQ vs AA situations....I play straight forward...AK i raise A hits on the flop i almost never check raise here.....i bet 3/4 pot ...if they call..im looking to control the pot and keep it small...if they reraise....they r saying they have the set....if u have some kind of read on them and know its a bluff (meaing they dont have a hand better then top pair) make a move...with out a read on an oponent ill fold here most of the time....pay attention to the table and know who the players are that over play hands...or bluff a lot....

 

[SavagePenguin]

Their action PF means a lot.

1. Did they limp and then call a 4xBB 5xBB raise preflop?

2. Now that the flops out do they flat out bet hard or check/raise?

3. Turn comes out and another unrelenting pot sized bet comes from the initial limper?

If you answered Yes to 1, Yes to 2, and Yes to 3... you're likely up against a set. if these three things fall in line with each other

^^^ I agree. Nice post.

If you are getting overplayed by sets, than you are probably playing too many hands.

This makes no sense, unless you are assuming that he's limping each time he's in a pot, *then* getting outplayed.
Getting outplayed post flop has nothing to do with how many flops you are seeing.
Yeah, if he's limping with T/J and then stacks with Top pair post-flop he's in trouble, but that's over-valuing hands, not seeing too many pots.

Trying playing for a little bit with very strong hands. This will enable you to bet stronger preflop and get low pocket pairs out of the pot.

I love it when villains are easy to read like that. Assuming we're deep stacked, if someone is really tight and makes a strong bet (4 big blinds) from early position I love it when I have a small pocket pair, as these are one of the best situations to set mine.
It's a situation where I'd much rather have 6/6 than A/K.

the tighter you play the easier it is to get away from sets and QQ vs AA situations.

How so? I find that people who have a really narrow range (and only play big hands) end up being less willing to fold them. It's like they believe that they are owed the win for the patience. Then poof, they get stacked with their overpair or TPTK.

 

[Weregoat]

I love it when villains are easy to read like that. Assuming we're deep stacked, if someone is really tight and makes a strong bet (4 big blinds) from early position I love it when I have a small pocket pair, as these are one of the best situations to set mine.
It's a situation where I'd much rather have 6/6 than A/K.

Ahhh. Crushing teh deepstack. So overlooked. People are so afraid to take low pocket pairs into a raised pot. Why? What if the flop comes 832 and you have 66? Why, YOU'RE WINNING! And you're probably getting paid by AK, too.

How so? I find that people who have a really narrow range (and only play big hands) end up being less willing to fold them. It's like they believe that they are owed the win for the patience. Then poof, they get stacked with their overpair or TPTK.

+1, good post SP.

Of course, SP takes into consideration stack sizes.

Sitting 150 BBs deep, I'd play 75s against AKs for 4 BBs any day of the week if I'm in position. But I digress . . .

There is no real solution for finding sets. If they flop a set, and you get the feeling your TpTk isn't good, well, it's probably not. No use getting stacked off when all you have is one pair. I'd much rather make my stand with top two, a set, a combo draw (in a cash game), then fall in love with a couple aces and a king to go with it.

It all depends on the relationship between your villain and yourself. Proper etiquette is to dump your stack when you have TpTk to a set though. Consider yourself saving money for every BB that doesn't make it into the pot when this happens.

If you find some crazy way to beat pick up on a set, then by golly, you've solved poker. Now all you have to do is be lucky and you'll be rich in no time.

 

[three3y3]

your best bet to sniffing out the bear trap is to enhance your pineal gland and develop your extra sensory perception abilities ...lol no but ive seen people play sets many different ways Ive seen people check call all the way down the river then shove the river , ive seen p[eople take 4 ever then bet out some little min bet on the flop, My fav move is open shove specially if an ace comes off and i know some one in the pot has one..ull be amazed how many people call especially in a rebuy......some times you can tell if lets say you have kings or aces and you bet pot on the flop and get called and bet bot on the turn and get called chances are duke has you and hes just letting you hang yourself ..but all in all each hand is different ...but sometimes people are just abc with it and will hit you with the check raise

 

[LaMinaccia]

Sniffing out a set is a hard thing to learn imo because it's played so many different ways, when I flop a set I always check/call down to the river and hope nobody catches better and then I bet big. 98% of the times I win the hand with a set the other players are very surprised to see what I had in my hand because most people play three of a kind very aggressively.