"Luck or skill: what weighs more in poker in the long run?"

[Aldayr]

Many players say poker is a game of skill, but in short sessions, luck can play a significant role.
Do you think a truly good player always wins in the long run?
How many hands do you think it takes for skill to overcome luck?

 

[Hospedar]

You can, obviously, never win a poker hand in your entire life, even if you are the best poker player in world, as luck has it's hole and may destroy your game easily.

But this is statistically almost impossible to happen...

In long run you will have the tendency to always be in advantage and, consequently, win by your positive EV.

How many hands do you think it takes for skill to overcome luck?

It depends, but this is a great question!

I remember when I once heard from a poker pro saying something very interesting to think about; it was something like: "The 'long term' is not something to care about, because it will never arrive", since the "long term" is just a theorical concept to complement the tendency to win that I told above.

 

[BillyR23]

I like to say that poker is a game of skill, where luck can be a pretty important factor(nowadays I don't like that much this 'long term' as so many players have such different time frames and/or number of hands/sessions/etc to define it); what I can say for sure is that studying and constantly working on your game/skills helps a lot and definitely improves your chances to become a winning player...

 

[Hilux]

Players with better strategy, discipline, and bankroll management will consistently perform better over thousands of hands or many tournaments. Luck may influence individual results, but skill determines long-term success.

 

[antonis32123]

Well , the right answer theoretically would be skill , on the long run skill prevails and give you the advantage and the winnings . But online rng sucks , rng defines the riles of probabilities , all these crazy bad beats ,bad hands deep in a tourney , the great swings , really rng surpasses skill or anything else online , rng is the greatest factor to take into consideration in online poker rooms . Add bots , AI tools and software , solvers , collussions, table selection and you see the great picture online

 

[austral]

If poker were mainly luck, the same players wouldn’t win year after year.

Luck/skill balance
Short term: 60–80% luck
Long term: 70–90% skill

Luck: determines individual results.
Skill: determines who makes money over time.

 

[Dushka]

I think the most important thing is skill, but without luck you can't win a tournament. You can have a stronger hand, but if you're unlucky you'll lose the hand.

 

[puzzlefish]

In the long run, the better hands will win against worst hands. However, there is no guarantee on what will be in the pot/at stake whenever that happens.

 

[phuchoidey1]

I think lucky is very important in poker, but the skill and patience is important too

 

[Roller]

As for how many hands it takes for skill to clearly overcome luck, there isn’t an exact number, but it’s usually tens of thousands of hands at minimum, and often closer to 100k+ hands before results start reflecting true win rates with reasonable confidence.

 

[Chunhong319]

In the long run, skill definitely matters more than luck. Luck can influence short-term results, but over a large number of hands, the better players tend to come out ahead.

 

[stampide]

I think in a long run skill have more important !

 

[Natiq 90]

I firmly believe that skill always prevails in the long run — but the key word here is 'long run.'
In the short term, luck can make a losing player look like a genius and a great player look like a fish. That's what makes poker so frustrating and so fascinating at the same time.
As for how many hands it takes for skill to overcome luck — most serious studies suggest that in No-Limit Hold'em, you need somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 hands to see your true win rate emerge with any statistical confidence. In tournaments it's even harder to measure, because the variance is much higher than in cash games.
Personally, I think the real sign of a skilled player isn't just their results — it's how they react when luck goes against them. Anyone can play well when they're running hot. The true test is making correct decisions when the cards are cold and the beats are bad.
That's why I focus on my decision-making process, not the outcome of any single session or tournament.

 

[888NOX888]

Poker is probably a game in which everything is important, from luck to your zodiac sign.

 

[dreamer13]

In the long run, the only luck is where you end up on the variance map: good, bad, average.The way I see it, all players have the same luck, which makes it zero.

 

[Goggelheimer]

A strong poker player doesn’t win every short session, but over time their decisions matter far more than the cards they’re dealt.
Luck can swing wildly in the moment, yet those swings smooth out as the number of hands grows.
Most pros say it takes thousands—sometimes tens of thousands—of hands before skill clearly rises above variance.
In the long run, smart strategy, discipline, and probability-based decisions consistently outperform short‑term randomness.
Skill and math will overcome luck.

 

[WladiYoga]

Skill obviously. Arguments are not necessary since this is a fundamnetal question.

 

[WrongUsername]

Luck factor of course not even close.

 

[thwenth1983]

Good morning everyone.

In my opinion, there is no comparison: luck and skill have very different weights in poker. Everyone knows that poker is a game of skill, although luck also exists. In the long run, however, skill is what really makes the difference.

In the short term, yes, luck can influence a lot, especially in very fast games such as Spin & Go. In a Spin & Go, for example, you might play a single time, the jackpot appears, and you end up competing for a huge prize. In these cases, luck plays an important role.

But when we talk about tournaments or results over time, poker is essentially a game of skill. The more skill and technical knowledge a player has, the greater the chances of making money in the long run.

 

[10gerka]

I believe that long-term skill weighs much more, but for this to happen you have to study and be very disciplined, have bankroll control and much more; it's a combination of things that must be taken into account.

 

[Ketoupitou]

Skill, but when luck is not there, it is hard.

 

[dompoker]

Of course, a player has to be skilled, cunning, and strategic, but I know, he has to do a lot with the luck of each player, I mean that you have to carry luck and skill, in balance.

 

[Aleksandr1991]

Многие игроки говорят, что покер — это игра на мастерство, но в коротких сессиях удача может сыграть значительную роль.
Как вы считаете, всегда ли по-настоящему хороший игрок выигрывает в долгосрочной перспективе?
Как вы думаете, сколько раз нужно сыграть, чтобы мастерство превзошло удачу?

In the short term, skill is the deciding factor in poker, while luck dominates short distances!!!!

 

[ninocabral]

without a doubt, poker skill was never luck

 

[Jyco]

Clearly, skill weighs more in the long run. But to go deep in a tournament you will always need some luck as well. To do well, both things have to be aligned. If you only have one and not the other, it will be hard to go very far.

Still, pure skill is more important, because regardless of how variance treats you, you know you made the best decisions possible with the things that are under your control.