$7 NLHE STT 9 man (turbo) - reraise all in with no fold equity v fold on bubble

[Transitley]

Hello All,

I have 2 questions: -

i) Was the hand below played correctly. When I played it yesterday I thought maybe not, but now I look again, I think that maybe it was ok. The reason I'm posting is I play a lot of turbo SnGs due to time constraints and I'm still unsure in this type of spot (shoving over top of open raise v open shove)- fairly fundamental I know.....hence Q ii) Am I right in thinking SnG Wizard is the tool to use to improve in this area?

I haven't posted this in hand analysis as its really only a one stage assessment: - all the villains are playing pretty straight forward - I haven't put them on ranges, although have the leader opening fairly wide, that is this weeks learning.

$6.45+$0.55 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (60/120)
Table 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: Player 3 (1023 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: Player 4 (4994 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (6615 in chips)
Seat 9: HERO (868 in chips)
Player 3: posts the ante 15
Player 4: posts the ante 15
Player 6: posts the ante 15
HERO: posts the ante 15
Player 3: posts small blind 60
Player 4: posts big blind 120
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [9s Ac]
Player 6: raises 180 to 300
HERO: raises 553 to 853 and is all-in
Player 3: folds
Player 4: folds
Player 6: calls 553
*** FLOP *** [5s 2d As]
Player 3 has returned
*** TURN *** [5s 2d As] 9♥
*** RIVER *** [5s 2d As 9h] K♠
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Player 6: shows [7d Ah] (a pair of Aces)
HERO: shows [9s Ac] (two pair, Aces and Nines)
HERO collected 1946 from pot


Reasons to shove over the top: Next hand I need to shove anyway taking the antes into acct, to avoid being blinded out, also, the chip leader will be opening very wide. If I double up I am more likely to push on to second/first (which incidentally, I did and won the SnG).

Reasons to fold: Wait for other short stack to make a mistake, if I shove next hand the medium stack has big stack behind to worry about, big stack has not been calling all shoves from short stacks and can advantage by keeping the bubble open.

Any thoughts welcome - when I started playing a few years ago I read a lot of books, switched to playing a lot more over last 18 months to improve discipline and now keen to commit time to analysis,

cheers
T

 

[mervin88]

i'm rejamming all in also, knowing he have a wide range and we are ahead with our A9 most of the time

 

[Transitley]

i'm rejamming all in also, knowing he have a wide range and we are ahead with our A9 most of the time

Yes, thats kinda where I was at - it is that simple I think - I think I'm maybe letting 'results' confuse me - those occassions where you do shove over the top and he has a premium hand, you're dominated. That said, I'd rather go out swinging than watch the other guy double up and end up on the seat of my pants!

 

[alien666dj]

I think that your decision had a positive expectation given the shortest stack. The SnG Wizard can be used to practice situations like this, but subject to adjusting opponents' opening ranges.

 

[fundiver199]

I dont know SnG Wizard, and I personally use ICMizer for preflop push-fold spots. So lets pull out the program and plug the hand in. The Nash equilibrium is Hero jamming with 77+, A9+, A8s, KJs+, so A9o is not a bad jam. However it is essentially a break-even one winning Hero only 0,01% of the price pool. So if CO is deviating slightly from the Nash ranges, this could easily be a losing jam. HJ is supposed to open 67% of hands, which include even something as bad as J2o. And I am not sure, how many people actually do that.

I think, something like 50% is perhaps more realistic, and if I plug that into ICMizer, now hero need AJo to make a profitable jam, and A9o is losing Hero 0,6% of the price pool. So at best this is break even, and with realistic player pool tendencies its a losing jam. So folding would indeed have been the better play. But its not like, this is a major blunder, and we all make mistakes like this in real time, so dont sweat it

 

[Transitley]

I dont know SnG Wizard, and I personally use ICMizer for preflop push-fold spots. So lets pull out the program and plug the hand in. The Nash equilibrium is Hero jamming with 77+, A9+, A8s, KJs+, so A9o is not a bad jam. However it is essentially a break-even one winning Hero only 0,01% of the price pool. So if CO is deviating slightly from the Nash ranges, this could easily be a losing jam. HJ is supposed to open 67% of hands, which include even something as bad as J2o. And I am not sure, how many people actually do that.

I think, something like 50% is perhaps more realistic, and if I plug that into ICMizer, now hero need AJo to make a profitable jam, and A9o is losing Hero 0,6% of the price pool. So at best this is break even, and with realistic player pool tendencies its a losing jam. So folding would indeed have been the better play. But its not like, this is a major blunder, and we all make mistakes like this in real time, so don't sweat it

Thanks for this analysis - I know that they weren't opening J2o, as everyone was surprisingly conservative, obviously aware of the other bigger stacks. So yes, it was a losing play. A year ago, I'd not even have considered that it might be a weak play, A9o - a blockbuster!!! So, I'm actually happy that my radar was on point to make this a questionable shove and absolutely reinforces that I will benefit massively from using a tool like ICMizer - heard of that, so that might be better than SnG wizard. I'm learning.....slowly!