Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value (Day 5 Course Discussion)

mandachuva

mandachuva

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 1, 2018
Total posts
90
Awards
1
Poker Chips
0
  • #126
Day 5 pot odds

Day 5 of the free book of cards potodds
Before I start talking about the subject of the book, I want to make it very clear to those who are reading, that I may be wrong in something or the other,
Because I'm just writing what I think, so if I got it wrong, please correct me ...
"On the 5th I brought this example that they cite
"pot odds and winning anything more often than one time in three, we make money. That is the magic of odds." Isso define bem oque é pot odds
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 11, 2009
Total posts
1,317
Awards
3
Poker Chips
5
  • #127
mandachuva said:
Day 5 of the free book of cards potodds
Before I start talking about the subject of the book, I want to make it very clear to those who are reading, that I may be wrong in something or the other,
Because I'm just writing what I think, so if I got it wrong, please correct me ...
"On the 5th I brought this example that they cite
"pot odds and winning anything more often than one time in three, we make money. That is the magic of odds." Isso define bem oque é pot odds


You're correct but it does pertain to that specific example of getting 2:1 odds. Adjust accordingly and how many times you'll win versus your odds is definitely the right framework to use :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Katie Dozier and mandachuva
Pichman189

Pichman189

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 9, 2020
Total posts
89
Awards
1
Poker Chips
0
  • #128
Collin Moshman said:
You're correct but it does pertain to that specific example of getting 2:1 odds. Adjust accordingly and how many times you'll win versus your odds is definitely the right framework to use :)

Ok, I try to calculate that.
pot: 555 + 375 = 930
odds: 2,48:1=28,7356 %~29%
and of course call because of high equity in pecents



But I want to ask: How many equiti we mast have to call: more than 50% (in the example 74%) or sinple more then pot odds (in this example 29%)?
If only 30 persents equity we should have in this situation-must we fold or bluff or call? :)
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 11, 2009
Total posts
1,317
Awards
3
Poker Chips
5
  • #129
Pichman189 said:
Ok, I try to calculate that.
pot: 555 + 375 = 930
odds: 2,48:1=28,7356 %~29%
and of course call because of high equity in pecents



But I want to ask: How many equiti we mast have to call: more than 50% (in the example 74%) or sinple more then pot odds (in this example 29%)?
If only 30 persents equity we should have in this situation-must we fold or bluff or call? :)

Good question!

The Answer: More than the pot odds indicate. So in other words: If pot odds translate to 29% equity, and you have at least that much equity in the pot, then you should usually call (or raise if the situation is good for that such as with a strong combo draw against an opponent making a weak-looking bet).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Daddysprincess99 and Pichman189
Pichman189

Pichman189

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 9, 2020
Total posts
89
Awards
1
Poker Chips
0
  • #130
Collin Moshman said:
Good question!

The Answer: More than the pot odds indicate. So in other words: If pot odds translate to 29% equity, and you have at least that much equity in the pot, then you should usually call (or raise if the situation is good for that such as with a strong combo draw against an opponent making a weak-looking bet).



Thanks for the answer.
Now I would like to learn how to count your equity without having a number of any programs, only knowing the approximate range of your opponent)
I can calculate pot odds without a calculator, if I play 1-2 tables, but my exact equity is unlikely. I roughly understand I have the nuts or the second strongest hand, but then it is more difficult. And probably the decision is made not from mathematical calculations, but at the level of intuition.
Maybe I'm not the only one who makes an intuitive decision when I bet or raise) right?
 
Katie Dozier

Katie Dozier

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 2, 2010
Total posts
1,331
Awards
2
Poker Chips
0
  • #131
Pichman189 said:
Thanks for the answer.
Now I would like to learn how to count your equity without having a number of any programs, only knowing the approximate range of your opponent)
I can calculate pot odds without a calculator, if I play 1-2 tables, but my exact equity is unlikely. I roughly understand I have the nuts or the second strongest hand, but then it is more difficult. And probably the decision is made not from mathematical calculations, but at the level of intuition.
Maybe I'm not the only one who makes an intuitive decision when I bet or raise) right?


You’re definitely not the only one! :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Pichman189
Daddysprincess99

Daddysprincess99

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 24, 2020
Total posts
58
Poker Chips
0
  • #132
Collin mentioned PokerTracker in this section and Icmizer in a previous. Is there a tools/calculators resource thread that includes all the ones mentioned in this course? It would be nice to have a quick reference.
 
Daddysprincess99

Daddysprincess99

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 24, 2020
Total posts
58
Poker Chips
0
  • #133
Goku55

Goku55

Rock Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2020
Total posts
137
Poker Chips
0
  • #134
Great post much appreciated

vinnie said:
I'm assuming you mean implied odds. Implied odds are a lot trickier than pot odds, because you need to be able to understand the board texture and your opponent's behavior. You also need to factor in stack sizes. The deeper the stacks, the better your implied odds because there is more money.

Say you have :ac4::4c4: on a board of :10c4::qh4::6c4::2d4:

Your implied odds here are pretty terrible. It is going to be really obvious when you hit your flush, and it will be hard to get any more money in the pot on the river. You might get a little, if someone thinks you were chasing with a straight draw, but you're not going to get stacks in.

Now, if you have :6s4::5s4: on a board of :ah4::4c4::7d4::qs4:

Your implied odds here are going to be a lot better than in the first hand. If you hit a 3 or an 8, both those cards aren't very threatening on this board. You have one less out, but you have better implied odds because your opponent is likely to pay off a bet on the river.

The hard part is that it's impossible to really know how often and how much you will get paid when you hit. It depends on your opponent's range, stack, and tendencies. The stronger your opponent's range, the better your implied odds. The more timid your opponent is (people who fold too much), the worse your implied odds.

Implied odds are more of an art-form than a science. It takes experience to know.

EV [expected value] is the combined value of all possible outcomes of our action. Take the second hand above. And, say the pot is $100 and you and your opponent both have $280 stacks. Your opponent bets $60. The EV of folding is $0. The EV of calling is trickier.

38 times out of 46, you miss the river. We'll assume that you lose every time this happens.

38/46 * -$60 ~= -$49.57

If you call the pot will be $220 and the stacks will be $220. We will assume that 40% of the time you're able to get stacks in. 30% of the time your opponent will make a bet of $80 and fold to a raise. And the rest of the time you get no more money.

8/46 * 40% * $380 ~= $26.43
8/46 * 30% * $240 ~= $12.52
8/46 * 30% * $160 ~= $8.35

If we add all these values up, 26.43+12.52+8.35-49.57, we get -$2.27. This means we expect our call to have a negative value, and folding looks to be better than calling. We can do the same thing for trying to figure out the EV of raising.

It should be noted that we made some assumptions about how our opponent would play when we hit (this is more of that implied odds stuff). It is important to not be overly optimistic when using implied odds. Still if the stacks were deeper here, you think your opponent would bet more than $80 before giving up, or you thought your opponent would put money in more frequently than the percents above then you might have a call here.


This is amazing post I’ve watched videos on your tube about ev and implied odds and it’s super confusing and all over the place. This is very straight forward and I can tell you’re a very knowledgeable person. This post is much appreciated and it’s definitely enhanced my understanding for the game. Keep me coming
 
  • Like
Reactions: Katie Dozier
P

Phil922

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 5, 2007
Total posts
58
Poker Chips
0
  • #135
good post
 
  • Like
Reactions: Katie Dozier
Katie Dozier

Katie Dozier

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 2, 2010
Total posts
1,331
Awards
2
Poker Chips
0
  • #136
Daddysprincess99 said:
Collin mentioned PokerTracker in this section and Icmizer in a previous. Is there a tools/calculators resource thread that includes all the ones mentioned in this course? It would be nice to have a quick reference.


I don’t believe there’s a master list of all of them and that’s a great idea, thanks!
 
Katie Dozier

Katie Dozier

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 2, 2010
Total posts
1,331
Awards
2
Poker Chips
0
  • #137
Daddysprincess99 said:
The "this article" link to a mathematical look at EV on CC isn't working for me in the ebook pdf, but I did find this article:

https://www.thepokerbank.com/strate...o,equation and work it out. (Solve the boxes)

This hurts my brain, is there an easier way to calculate the EV of an action???


Calculating it by hand is always going to be a bit of a process for those of us that aren’t as naturally mathematically inclined (myself 100% included in that haha) so feel free to skip to using the software that will calculate the EV of the spots you input—once you have the knowledge of how it would be calculated by hand should you want to [emoji4]
 
Edgerik

Edgerik

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Aug 2, 2018
Total posts
1,195
Awards
2
VE
Poker Chips
38
  • #138
Excellent explanation about Pot Odds, it clarifies many doubts.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Katie Dozier
Katie Dozier

Katie Dozier

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 2, 2010
Total posts
1,331
Awards
2
Poker Chips
0
  • #139
Edgerik said:
Excellent explanation about Pot Odds, it clarifies many doubts.


That’s wonderful to hear, thanks Edgerik! :)
 
AjR3ckless

AjR3ckless

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 23, 2020
Total posts
267
Poker Chips
0
  • #140
calculators out...mental maths cant do :):):) thanks for the information, I most times look at the risk of betting or calling a hand based on if I'm going to get a chance at another game but this is really another great point to learn how to do cause it can help me to win more of most of my games
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 11, 2009
Total posts
1,317
Awards
3
Poker Chips
5
  • #141
AjR3ckless said:
calculators out...mental maths cant do :):):) thanks for the information, I most times look at the risk of betting or calling a hand based on if I'm going to get a chance at another game but this is really another great point to learn how to do cause it can help me to win more of most of my games


Definitely -- in the short term anything can happen, but in the long run this framework will help you maximize your winrate.
 
imnoobpoker

imnoobpoker

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 10, 2017
Total posts
404
Awards
1
Poker Chips
1
  • #142
Thank you so much for day 5. One of the first things I learned when I started playing was, how much do I have to pay to win that pot. This changed my game and I'm more likely to call some bets because of just that sentence: How much do I have to pay, to win this pot.

Thank you so much for this great lesson again!
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 11, 2009
Total posts
1,317
Awards
3
Poker Chips
5
  • #143
imnoobpoker said:
Thank you so much for day 5. One of the first things I learned when I started playing was, how much do I have to pay to win that pot. This changed my game and I'm more likely to call some bets because of just that sentence: How much do I have to pay, to win this pot.

Thank you so much for this great lesson again!

We're very glad to hear that, thanks for posting this feedback Imnoobpoker!
 
  • Like
Reactions: imnoobpoker
xOneCoolHandx

xOneCoolHandx

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jul 15, 2015
Total posts
1,810
Awards
20
US
Poker Chips
175
  • #144
1. 2 1/2: 1
2. 30%
3. Yes, a lot of times you may be chopping but the way villain played the hand, I think it may be a bluff.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Collin Moshman
S

silversun87

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 13, 2021
Total posts
55
Poker Chips
6
  • #145
Great topic, thank you! I was never very good at math so I'm trying to break down your example in the book to see what I'm missing in regards to profitability.

You say "Our pot odds are: $17,250 : $6,000, or around 2.9:1.". OK. I will approximate to 3 to make it easier to calculate. That would mean according to your table that if we win the hand 25% we break even.

Going forward with this train of thought would mean we lose 3 times 6,000, equating roughly to our pot size and then we win one time the pot and we break even.

But isn't this incorrect because in that pot we already have invested 4,250 units? Aren't we in fact paying each time approximately 10k (the initial 4,250 + 6,000) to see if we win the roughly 18k pot? Meaning we lose 30k if we call three times and are not successful. If we finally win the fourth time we make 18k but still we are 12k down if we subtract from the previous 30k we lost.

Also, are we really winning 18k or are we in fact winning 8k since we invested 10k in the pot, which would put us deeper in the hole i.e. -22k.

Sorry if I am missing something obvious but I figured maybe somebody else is also struggling with this and would be good to understand.
 
S

silversun87

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 13, 2021
Total posts
55
Poker Chips
6
  • #146
silversun87 said:
Great topic, thank you! I was never very good at math so I'm trying to break down your example in the book to see what I'm missing in regards to profitability.

You say "Our pot odds are: $17,250 : $6,000, or around 2.9:1.". OK. I will approximate to 3 to make it easier to calculate. That would mean according to your table that if we win the hand 25% we break even.

Going forward with this train of thought would mean we lose 3 times 6,000, equating roughly to our pot size and then we win one time the pot and we break even.

But isn't this incorrect because in that pot we already have invested 4,250 units? Aren't we in fact paying each time approximately 10k (the initial 4,250 + 6,000) to see if we win the roughly 18k pot? Meaning we lose 30k if we call three times and are not successful. If we finally win the fourth time we make 18k but still we are 12k down if we subtract from the previous 30k we lost.

Also, are we really winning 18k or are we in fact winning 8k since we invested 10k in the pot, which would put us deeper in the hole i.e. -22k.

Sorry if I am missing something obvious but I figured maybe somebody else is also struggling with this and would be good to understand.

OK, the calculations I wrote above I now realize are wrong. It should be investing 10k to win 18+6 = 24k. If we lose three time we lose 30k. If we win the fourth time we would win 24 - 10 = 14k. So we would still be 16k (30 minus 14) in the hole... Or is there still some other mistake I'm making?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Collin Moshman
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

Poker Expert
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 11, 2009
Total posts
1,317
Awards
3
Poker Chips
5
  • #147
Silver, very good Q -- this is the "sunk cost fallacy" which means that we have to ignore prior investment. It doesn't matter if we've invested $20,000 in the pot or nothing; all that matters is how much it costs to call this current bet and how big the pot is.

I hope that answers your question, if not please feel free to post again and I'll do my best to give you a good answer!
 
S

silversun87

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 13, 2021
Total posts
55
Poker Chips
6
  • #148
Collin Moshman said:
Silver, very good Q -- this is the "sunk cost fallacy" which means that we have to ignore prior investment. It doesn't matter if we've invested $20,000 in the pot or nothing; all that matters is how much it costs to call this current bet and how big the pot is.

I hope that answers your question, if not please feel free to post again and I'll do my best to give you a good answer!

Thank you Collin for taking the time to answer!

I understand if you ignore previous investment your odds make sense, I am not questioning that. I am questioning why are we ignoring previous investment in the pot, if the math shows we lose money in total, should we ignore? Isn't that more important than the outcome of one betting round?

Maybe there is some resource you can suggest I check that explains this topic in more detail? Would really appreciate it as I don't want to waste any more of your time explaining this to me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Katie Dozier
el_soma77

el_soma77

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2020
Total posts
744
Poker Chips
0
  • #149
vinnie said:
I'm assuming you mean implied odds. Implied odds are a lot trickier than pot odds, because you need to be able to understand the board texture and your opponent's behavior. You also need to factor in stack sizes. The deeper the stacks, the better your implied odds because there is more money.

Say you have :ac4::4c4: on a board of :10c4::qh4::6c4::2d4:

Your implied odds here are pretty terrible. It is going to be really obvious when you hit your flush, and it will be hard to get any more money in the pot on the river. You might get a little, if someone thinks you were chasing with a straight draw, but you're not going to get stacks in.

Now, if you have :6s4::5s4: on a board of :ah4::4c4::7d4::qs4:

Your implied odds here are going to be a lot better than in the first hand. If you hit a 3 or an 8, both those cards aren't very threatening on this board. You have one less out, but you have better implied odds because your opponent is likely to pay off a bet on the river.

The hard part is that it's impossible to really know how often and how much you will get paid when you hit. It depends on your opponent's range, stack, and tendencies. The stronger your opponent's range, the better your implied odds. The more timid your opponent is (people who fold too much), the worse your implied odds.

Implied odds are more of an art-form than a science. It takes experience to know.

EV [expected value] is the combined value of all possible outcomes of our action. Take the second hand above. And, say the pot is $100 and you and your opponent both have $280 stacks. Your opponent bets $60. The EV of folding is $0. The EV of calling is trickier.

38 times out of 46, you miss the river. We'll assume that you lose every time this happens.

38/46 * -$60 ~= -$49.57

If you call the pot will be $220 and the stacks will be $220. We will assume that 40% of the time you're able to get stacks in. 30% of the time your opponent will make a bet of $80 and fold to a raise. And the rest of the time you get no more money.

8/46 * 40% * $380 ~= $26.43
8/46 * 30% * $240 ~= $12.52
8/46 * 30% * $160 ~= $8.35

If we add all these values up, 26.43+12.52+8.35-49.57, we get -$2.27. This means we expect our call to have a negative value, and folding looks to be better than calling. We can do the same thing for trying to figure out the EV of raising.

It should be noted that we made some assumptions about how our opponent would play when we hit (this is more of that implied odds stuff). It is important to not be overly optimistic when using implied odds. Still if the stacks were deeper here, you think your opponent would bet more than $80 before giving up, or you thought your opponent would put money in more frequently than the percents above then you might have a call here.



Everything varies, pro, sometimes the luck factor also influences me and they hardly respect me in tournaments, most of the players play with poker traker and holden manager and are guided with statistics and everything else, this week I have a Bad streak, I'll play the cardschat silver tournament on Friday, maybe it's for playing every day.
 
R

Rabberto71

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Jan 15, 2021
Total posts
313
Poker Chips
0
  • #150
Wow
It seems I’m learning something about something I didn’t know I needed to learn:(:confused:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Collin Moshman
Poker Odds - Pot & Implied Odds - Odds Calculator
Top