Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value (Day 5 Course Discussion)

[vinnie]

I know how to calculate POT ODDS and ODDS using OUTS, but implicit ODDS and Expected Value, no idea how they are done.

I'm assuming you mean implied odds. Implied odds are a lot trickier than pot odds, because you need to be able to understand the board texture and your opponent's behavior. You also need to factor in stack sizes. The deeper the stacks, the better your implied odds because there is more money.

Say you have on a board of

Your implied odds here are pretty terrible. It is going to be really obvious when you hit your flush, and it will be hard to get any more money in the pot on the river. You might get a little, if someone thinks you were chasing with a straight draw, but you're not going to get stacks in.

Now, if you have on a board of

Your implied odds here are going to be a lot better than in the first hand. If you hit a 3 or an 8, both those cards aren't very threatening on this board. You have one less out, but you have better implied odds because your opponent is likely to pay off a bet on the river.

The hard part is that it's impossible to really know how often and how much you will get paid when you hit. It depends on your opponent's range, stack, and tendencies. The stronger your opponent's range, the better your implied odds. The more timid your opponent is (people who fold too much), the worse your implied odds.

Implied odds are more of an art-form than a science. It takes experience to know.

EV [expected value] is the combined value of all possible outcomes of our action. Take the second hand above. And, say the pot is $100 and you and your opponent both have $280 stacks. Your opponent bets $60. The EV of folding is $0. The EV of calling is trickier.

38 times out of 46, you miss the river. We'll assume that you lose every time this happens.

38/46 * -$60 ~= -$49.57

If you call the pot will be $220 and the stacks will be $220. We will assume that 40% of the time you're able to get stacks in. 30% of the time your opponent will make a bet of $80 and fold to a raise. And the rest of the time you get no more money.

8/46 * 40% * $380 ~= $26.43
8/46 * 30% * $240 ~= $12.52
8/46 * 30% * $160 ~= $8.35

If we add all these values up, 26.43+12.52+8.35-49.57, we get -$2.27. This means we expect our call to have a negative value, and folding looks to be better than calling. We can do the same thing for trying to figure out the EV of raising.

It should be noted that we made some assumptions about how our opponent would play when we hit (this is more of that implied odds stuff). It is important to not be overly optimistic when using implied odds. Still if the stacks were deeper here, you think your opponent would bet more than $80 before giving up, or you thought your opponent would put money in more frequently than the percents above then you might have a call here.

 

[Katie Dozier]

I'm assuming you mean implied odds. Implied odds are a lot trickier than pot odds, because you need to be able to understand the board texture and your opponent's behavior. You also need to factor in stack sizes. The deeper the stacks, the better your implied odds because there is more money.

Say you have on a board of

Your implied odds here are pretty terrible. It is going to be really obvious when you hit your flush, and it will be hard to get any more money in the pot on the river. You might get a little, if someone thinks you were chasing with a straight draw, but you're not going to get stacks in.

Now, if you have on a board of

Your implied odds here are going to be a lot better than in the first hand. If you hit a 3 or an 8, both those cards aren't very threatening on this board. You have one less out, but you have better implied odds because your opponent is likely to pay off a bet on the river.

The hard part is that it's impossible to really know how often and how much you will get paid when you hit. It depends on your opponent's range, stack, and tendencies. The stronger your opponent's range, the better your implied odds. The more timid your opponent is (people who fold too much), the worse your implied odds.

Implied odds are more of an art-form than a science. It takes experience to know.

EV [expected value] is the combined value of all possible outcomes of our action. Take the second hand above. And, say the pot is $100 and you and your opponent both have $280 stacks. Your opponent bets $60. The EV of folding is $0. The EV of calling is trickier.

38 times out of 46, you miss the river. We'll assume that you lose every time this happens.

38/46 * -$60 ~= -$49.57

If you call the pot will be $220 and the stacks will be $220. We will assume that 40% of the time you're able to get stacks in. 30% of the time your opponent will make a bet of $80 and fold to a raise. And the rest of the time you get no more money.

8/46 * 40% * $380 ~= $26.43
8/46 * 30% * $240 ~= $12.52
8/46 * 30% * $160 ~= $8.35

If we add all these values up, 26.43+12.52+8.35-49.57, we get -$2.27. This means we expect our call to have a negative value, and folding looks to be better than calling. We can do the same thing for trying to figure out the EV of raising.

It should be noted that we made some assumptions about how our opponent would play when we hit (this is more of that implied odds stuff). It is important to not be overly optimistic when using implied odds. Still if the stacks were deeper here, you think your opponent would bet more than $80 before giving up, or you thought your opponent would put money in more frequently than the percents above then you might have a call here.

This is an epic post, Vinnie! Thanks for taking the time to make it and do such an awesome job at defining implied odds with a great example!

 

[Jim Rivas]

I'm assuming you mean implied odds. Implied odds are a lot trickier than pot odds, because you need to be able to understand the board texture and your opponent's behavior. You also need to factor in stack sizes. The deeper the stacks, the better your implied odds because there is more money.

Say you have on a board of

Your implied odds here are pretty terrible. It is going to be really obvious when you hit your flush, and it will be hard to get any more money in the pot on the river. You might get a little, if someone thinks you were chasing with a straight draw, but you're not going to get stacks in.

Now, if you have on a board of

Your implied odds here are going to be a lot better than in the first hand. If you hit a 3 or an 8, both those cards aren't very threatening on this board. You have one less out, but you have better implied odds because your opponent is likely to pay off a bet on the river.

The hard part is that it's impossible to really know how often and how much you will get paid when you hit. It depends on your opponent's range, stack, and tendencies. The stronger your opponent's range, the better your implied odds. The more timid your opponent is (people who fold too much), the worse your implied odds.

Implied odds are more of an art-form than a science. It takes experience to know.

EV [expected value] is the combined value of all possible outcomes of our action. Take the second hand above. And, say the pot is $100 and you and your opponent both have $280 stacks. Your opponent bets $60. The EV of folding is $0. The EV of calling is trickier.

38 times out of 46, you miss the river. We'll assume that you lose every time this happens.

38/46 * -$60 ~= -$49.57

If you call the pot will be $220 and the stacks will be $220. We will assume that 40% of the time you're able to get stacks in. 30% of the time your opponent will make a bet of $80 and fold to a raise. And the rest of the time you get no more money.

8/46 * 40% * $380 ~= $26.43
8/46 * 30% * $240 ~= $12.52
8/46 * 30% * $160 ~= $8.35

If we add all these values up, 26.43+12.52+8.35-49.57, we get -$2.27. This means we expect our call to have a negative value, and folding looks to be better than calling. We can do the same thing for trying to figure out the EV of raising.

It should be noted that we made some assumptions about how our opponent would play when we hit (this is more of that implied odds stuff). It is important to not be overly optimistic when using implied odds. Still if the stacks were deeper here, you think your opponent would bet more than $80 before giving up, or you thought your opponent would put money in more frequently than the percents above then you might have a call here.

Vinnie, you do not know how much I appreciate the explanation, it seemed very detailed to me, more when you use numbers for probability calculations, keep it up, that the world needs teachers who want to share their experiences. Thank you God bless you.

 

[samsonand]

excellent explanation guys, it helped me a lot too many doubts were clarified for each game use this

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[Edison A]

I love this theme, in fact I apply it a lot, calculating odds avoids wasting your chips in an unprofitable pot, newbies make mistakes of not calculating pot odds and it wastes chips and money in a very small pot

 

[Collin Moshman]

I love this theme, in fact I apply it a lot, calculating odds avoids wasting your chips in an unprofitable pot, newbies make mistakes of not calculating pot odds and it wastes chips and money in a very small pot

It's a very important skill for sure, and probably the single most important time to use math at the tables!

 

[BigDice75]

Correctly answered the first two questions of the quiz on day 5!


1) Hero's pot odds are roughly 2.5: 1.
2) Hero needs approximately 29% equity for the call to be profitable.



The third, which was optional, and although I thought that the villain did not have many nines or queens (that he would have bet preflop) and rather assigned him some six when he bet on the turn, and on the river, he had no other way to win the hand than bluffing, the truth is that I did not risk answering it.


See you on day 6!

 

[Collin Moshman]

Correctly answered the first two questions of the quiz on day 5!


1) Hero's pot odds are roughly 2.5: 1.
2) Hero needs approximately 29% equity for the call to be profitable.



The third, which was optional, and although I thought that the villain did not have many nines or queens (that he would have bet preflop) and rather assigned him some six when he bet on the turn, and on the river, he had no other way to win the hand than bluffing, the truth is that I did not risk answering it.


See you on day 6!

Keep up the good work BigDice!

 

[userme4321]

Vinnie, thank you and thumbs up for that explanation. Pt.1 2.48/1 Pt.2 29% Pt.3 Yes. For now, I feel I need to get through the course, and then I'll come back to my weaknesses. One a day!

 

[Geyomobama]

Thank you so much for these, altho i must say for a first timer this may not be ideal. Because it skips over the foundamental details that make each concept though. But its fair if they want that knowledge they must be willing to seek it.

 

[Collin Moshman]

What are the fundamental details that we skip over Geyomobama? Let us know anything else you're looking to learn about and I'm happy to add it in here and/or to future versions of the book

 

[theheeb1984]

Thank you for making these videos and very easy to follow/understand. I had been looking for something to share with a friend of mine who was just not getting the idea behind pot odds and this helped because she is not good with math at all. It did take 2 viewings to get an acceptable level of understanding but still positive.

 

[CMack3]

Day 5 Pot Odds/Expected Value

Thank you! Good stuff and well explained. Makes it look easy.
I understand the concepts and therefore, I am moving on with the rest of the course to tie it all together.
No doubt I'll be coming back to these last couple chapters and probably many more, multiple times. I see many hours of studying these concepts in my future. (So you want to be a poker player?!)
Peace

 

[Good Man]

Excellent formula for calculating the Bank's chances. It was especially interesting at the end, as the opponent's pocket threes simply devalued, he played a bad bluff.

 

[Katie Dozier]

Thank you for making these videos and very easy to follow/understand. I had been looking for something to share with a friend of mine who was just not getting the idea behind pot odds and this helped because she is not good with math at all. It did take 2 viewings to get an acceptable level of understanding but still positive.

So glad to hear that this section proves helpful!

 

[Katie Dozier]

Thank you! Good stuff and well explained. Makes it look easy.
I understand the concepts and therefore, I am moving on with the rest of the course to tie it all together.
No doubt I'll be coming back to these last couple chapters and probably many more, multiple times. I see many hours of studying these concepts in my future. (So you want to be a poker player?!)
Peace

Awesome, way to go CMack!

 

[Freepokerfree]

Hi all!

This is a simpler concept and calculation than the day before. That's why I usually apply it in tournaments. Both concepts are more useful for cash, right?

I will continue with the course thanks greetings

 

[Phyrrura]

Know that, play the other

I find it very playable how you deal with the odds, and how you can trick someone by beting something that is not so previsible.

 

[Katie Dozier]

This is a simpler concept and calculation than the day before. That's why I usually apply it in tournaments. Both concepts are more useful for cash, right?

I will continue with the course thanks greetings

These concepts are extremely important for both tournament and cash poker. It’s true though that (unless you’re playing short-stacked cash) you’ll have more deepstacked scenarios when playing cash so you could make the argument that these concepts are even more important there! But I hesitate to say that as pot odds are extraordinarily important in tournaments as well.

 

[Phyrrura]

What are the odds?

So, once a was at a live poker, and in this particular hand that I didn't joined there was this player who has just sitted and was at the BB, five players had already paid a 2x BB raise, and hi just said "well, it seems I have odds to join this hand, and paid (spoiler: he has 72o). End of history, he made a very unlikely fullhouse at the flop, everyone doubted him and he just got the top.

 

[Collin Moshman]

So, once a was at a live poker, and in this particular hand that I didn't joined there was this player who has just sitted and was at the BB, five players had already paid a 2x BB raise, and hi just said "well, it seems I have odds to join this hand, and paid (spoiler: he has 72o). End of history, he made a very unlikely fullhouse at the flop, everyone doubted him and he just got the top.

It's usually a mistake to defend 72o in the big blind even getting pot odds of 10:1 or so. But of course, anything can happen in poker and junk hands can always make it big by the river

 

[Hoyt88Slayer]

Not for beginners

When one masters pot odds, it’s actually like card counting in black jack, giving those ppl a much greater advantage.

 

[johnmaltz19]

This is a very interesting topic because I don't really know when to use EV. Should I use EV for everyhand I play? Should I use EV with my already made hands?

 

[Collin Moshman]

I understand how to calculate the pot odds, but I do not use it in my game. I do not understand the right moment to use the concept of pot odds.

Don't worry, we give a lot more examples on the day devoted to playing draws!

This is a very interesting topic because I don't really know when to use EV. Should I use EV for everyhand I play? Should I use EV with my already made hands?

Interesting question!

I would say not every hand, at least in an active sense. For example, if you're folding a weak hand from early position, you're still using EV in the sense that your fold indicates you think that a raise/call are -EV options and folding is the best. But you don't need to give EV any active thought when you fold 73o from UTG for example.

A time when you would use EV more actively would be semi-bluffing. You're considering a bet with a draw and have at least approximate ideas of the probability your opponent folds, the likelihood you hit your draw, and how much money you expect to win when you do.

 

[johnmaltz19]

Don't worry, we give a lot more examples on the day devoted to playing draws!




Interesting question!

I would say not every hand, at least in an active sense. For example, if you're folding a weak hand from early position, you're still using EV in the sense that your fold indicates you think that a raise/call are -EV options and folding is the best. But you don't need to give EV any active thought when you fold 73o from UTG for example.

A time when you would use EV more actively would be semi-bluffing. You're considering a bet with a draw and have at least approximate ideas of the probability your opponent folds, the likelihood you hit your draw, and how much money you expect to win when you do.

Great! I have a better understanding now on -EV/+EV, It is a profitable play I think. Thanks!