Variance: Cash, SnG or MTT?

[MrHachiman]

The question would be which of these modalities do you think there is a lower variance and why?

 

[Vlad symrak]

You made them exactly according to the complexity and profitability and risk!To play multi-table tournaments easier, more profitable and longer.

 

[Iryna Stryzheuskaya]

I think it's better to try everything and decide what is more suitable for you personally.

 

[wilpinsi]

Variance is the amount of money you can win or lose in a session. In general, tournaments are less variant than cash games, since the buy-in limit is limited and the amount you earn in the prize pool is already determined. In cash games, winnings are limitless and losses can also be higher.
The variance is larger, much larger ... in MTT. In SNG tournaments you win or lose little, and the payout range is for 30% of the players. In the MTT, on the other hand, the amount invested is higher and the range of awards is to about 10% of the participants. This means that getting into the MTT awards is much harder, but who can make a lot of money. Hence the variance is greater
SNG tournaments and 6-max cash games are the most lucrative form of poker. It is in them that you must seek to focus to grow your bankroll.
Choose one to begin with, but be sure to learn and practice the other. In a short time you will notice the difference in the bankroll
Good luck at the tables

 

[Rational Madman]

The What
Variance lowest to highest>
CG>SnG>MTT

The Why
CG never pressures you on a bad run to play any of the hands or to get too pot committed with a mediocre hand against a loose raiser. Even if you do lose a deep-stacked pot, you can top-off your stack and be deep stacked once again to make good plays and win back what you lost and more with optimal +EV decision making.
MTT is worse than SnG as there's no limit on how many people can join (and a huge variety of when in the tournament they can join depending on rebuy or late-entry etc) Additionally, MTT blind structures are very often the equivalent of at least a Turbo SnG. Since even the structure, table size, player pool and everything is unknown on top of the obvious source of variance (cards) MTTs are higher variance form of tournament than SnGs..
Oh yeah, even the prizes in MTTs is down to variance (more people = bigger prize if buyins pass what the GTD prize pool expected) the bigger the amount of people also the more places actually get prize-money. So, even the PRIZE you get will be down to variance.

The win-rates
Naturally CGs give the best winrates, on top of the lowest variance you can play the most CGs at once vs any other kind of game (ok actually this is physically untrue with pokerstars as they offer unlimited tournaments at once but limit CG tables to 24)... What I mean is mentally you can cope far easier as a pro CG grinder playing 15 at once than a MTT pro can even cope with 3+ if they make it to the mid-game of all 3. This is because there's so much to take into account.

All of that makes CG the highest winrate format of the game for a pro grinder.

MTTs despite being higher variance than SnGs seem to attract far more fish-per-player than SnGs. Since SnGs are more reg-infested and both are fundamentally tournaments (meaning you are forced to play with your opponents, can't walk out of a table, can't back down no matter how bad you run) then it actually means MTT grinders make more than SnG grinders just because they have more chance of being vs bad players.

 

[Rational Madman]

Variance is the amount of money you can win or lose in a session. In general, tournaments are less variant than cash games, since the buy-in limit is limited and the amount you earn in the prize pool is already determined. In cash games, winnings are limitless and losses can also be higher.
The variance is larger, much larger ... in MTT. In SNG tournaments you win or lose little, and the payout range is for 30% of the players. In the MTT, on the other hand, the amount invested is higher and the range of awards is to about 10% of the participants. This means that getting into the MTT awards is much harder, but who can make a lot of money. Hence the variance is greater
SNG tournaments and 6-max cash games are the most lucrative form of poker. It is in them that you must seek to focus to grow your bankroll.

No it is not. Variance is the areas of gameplay that are not down to skill or knowledge but down to chance/luck.

Variance in one's favor is known as good luck, variance in villains' favor is bad luck.

 

[wilpinsi]

No it is not. Variance is the areas of gameplay that are not down to skill or knowledge but down to chance/luck.

Variance in one's favor is known as good luck, variance in villains' favor is bad luck.

Rational Madman
Do you find yourself the master of masters, have a little humility
Why hide your nick from poker rooms ????
should share with everyone, so we could see if you really know about poker

 

[Rational Madman]

Rational Madman
Do you find yourself the master of masters, have a little humility
Why hide your nick from poker rooms ????
should share with everyone, so we could see if you really know about poker

My username is SaneMadman in pokerstars, what am I hiding? I only play pokerstars for now.

 

[bmw13]

I think the best way to have both is to grind cash game online and just to play tournaments live.
Yesterday I played 3.3 buy-in for 10k guaranteed and I finished bubble after 4:15 of playing ... UTG had 10BB A2 suited pushed I had KK on BB with 30 BB ... he made me near to half of my stack after 3:30 hours...and then some bad styling and a bad call with A9 suited again on BB vs AJ ... with a stack of 7 BB.
If you really want to play MTT ... you have to grind them ...you will need a huge bankroll... it's very unpleasant when you have 10 tables with MTT and there are different levels in them its sick ...for each table another strategy ... so on ...

 

[nyjah0]

CG or SNG/MTT's are completely different and they aren't comparable if you based it on a players skills, some players have a better skills in tourneys and vice versa.
For me I'd like to play them both in online and a cash game in live specially if you're a good observer.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

No it is not. Variance is the areas of gameplay that are not down to skill or knowledge but down to chance/luck.

Variance in one's favor is known as good luck, variance in villains' favor is bad luck.

Madman is right about this. I guess it had to happen sooner or later.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

The What
Variance lowest to highest>
CG>SnG>MTT

All of that makes CG the highest winrate format of the game for a pro grinder.

There is a lot of confusion between variance and win rates here. You are right that cash has the lowest variance, and MTTs the highest.

Win rates in live poker are usually discussed in terms of cash games, and measured in profit per hour. Live tournament players don't talk about win rates, they talk about ROI.

Online, again it's mostly ROI for tournament players. But some tournament players measure Big Blinds won per 100 hands, as do cash players. There's really no fair comparison between cash and tournament for bb/100, since tournament players usually start with a lot more chips than cash players.

In any given year, the biggest money winners in poker are a few MTT players who are both good and lucky, precisely because the variance is so high. If you win the Main Event or One Drop, your winnings go through the roof.

 

[Rational Madman]

There is a lot of confusion between variance and win rates here. You are right that cash has the lowest variance, and MTTs the highest.

Win rates in live poker are usually discussed in terms of cash games, and measured in profit per hour. Live tournament players don't talk about win rates, they talk about ROI.

Online, again it's mostly ROI for tournament players. But some tournament players measure Big Blinds won per 100 hands, as do cash players. There's really no fair comparison between cash and tournament for bb/100, since tournament players usually start with a lot more chips than cash players.

In any given year, the biggest money winners in poker are a few MTT players who are both good and lucky, precisely because the variance is so high. If you win the Main Event or One Drop, your winnings go through the roof.

I said that MTT is higher ROI than SnG and explain that in the win-rate section.

CG is best at both.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

In the end, you'll make the most money by playing the game(s) that you are good at. I stink at cash online, though I'm successful at cash live. I'm successful at SNGs online, though a losing player at MTTs both online and live. Experiment and see what suits you.

I said that MTT is higher ROI than SnG and explain that in the win-rate section.

CG is best at both.

You know your post is viewable by everyone, right? No mention of ROI in it.

 

[Aparajit]

In cash games or sng we have to be alert and be ready to play any hand...

In mtt, we can win 2 hands possibily double ups and sit out for 2 hours and make cash with less effort.. Very easy.

But if we start playing many hands initially and folding, the software will make u lose when you go all in even with pockets.. So play cautiosly initially and run the game. I will show how

 

[Salavat Kozhakhmetov]

just say as for me SNG and MTT more or less fit me,as for cash games there need to have certain skills and practice to be profit and to focus on this discipline!

 

[marakhovskii]

no matter what you choose, the main thing that you liked and can succeed

 

[AviCKter]

THE MATHEMATICS OF POKER ~ Bill Chen & Jerrod Ankenman
Chapter 2: Predicting the future: Variance and Sample Outcome

In poker, a loose·wild game will have much higher variance than a tight-passive game, because the outcomes will be further from the mean (pots you win will be larger, but the money lost in pots you lose will be greater). Style of play will also affect your variance; thin value bets and semi-bluff raises are examples of higher-variance plays that might increase variance, expectation, or both. On the other hand, loose-maniacal players may make plays that increase their variance while decreasing expectation. And playing too tightly may reduce both quantities.

:ciao:

 

[TeUnit]

This is a hard question, the easiest answer is whatever you are best at(highest roi) will have the lowest variance. Overall the lowest real variance assuming equal skill level would probably be achieved in a game like PL08 or stud hi/lo.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

This is a hard question, the easiest answer is whatever you are best at(highest roi) will have the lowest variance. Overall the lowest real variance assuming equal skill level would probably be achieved in a game like PL08 or stud hi/lo.

I'm not sure if I understand "lowest real variance" correctly in your comment?

Take a player who is consistently a winner at MTTs and a small loser at PLO8 on a yearly basis, but who plays both every day.
At the end of the year they always have a positive ROI for MTTs and a negative one for cash.
But their MTT earnings graph will be full of peaks and valleys, while their cash earnings will be a gentle downward slope.
Doesn't the spiky graph represent high variance?

 

[TeUnit]

What I meant by "lowest real variance" is that in games like PLO8 and stud hi/lo the split nature of the game means there should be lower variance. Because in regular holdem you either win the hand or lose the hand, but in the split games you have the chance of winning the high, the low, or both. So a good PLO8 player can achieve a good roi or win a good amount of bbs/100 and still have a pretty low variance. This cannot be said about a game like standard PLO.

 

[AlexTheOwl]

What I meant by "lowest real variance" is that in games like PLO8 and stud hi/lo the split nature of the game means there should be lower variance. Because in regular holdem you either win the hand or lose the hand, but in the split games you have the chance of winning the high, the low, or both. So a good PLO8 player can achieve a good roi or win a good amount of bbs/100 and still have a pretty low variance. This cannot be said about a game like standard PLO.

I understand and agree, thanks.