NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[Yanko57]

I just discovered this thread. I'm in if you let me

UNDER 47.5

Rams +1

Det +13

 

[ribbybruno]

Still on a really good run I just don't post my NFL bets here anymore. Out of all the non soccer betting threads here, this one has the most people, yet there is next to no communication about the games, it's just simply people putting their picks with no knowledge as to why, or any information exchanged. Ribby gives his brief reasonings, and you give your information, more so lately, but otherwise it's a wasted hub of potential information and learning for people to be better cappers and bettors.
Also, multiple times I've tried to give information on games, or just general tips, in here and got snapped at, and I'm not with that. I still look in here though from time to time.

You have at least 2 people following your information - Chicken and I - the information is not wasted in my opinion. I have read every word in every thread you post in. I find great value in it! You have probably saved me from losing more than I have in College FB.

 

[Synopsis]

I don't mean wasted in the information that is here, I mean wasted as in the information that is not. There are multiple people here outside of us 3 that post 3+ plays every week but they don't give their angle or take on their reasoning. Perhaps I say something you overlooked, or chicken mentions a last minute player who is sitting out. If everyone who uses this thread did that, there could be a wealth of information to parse with your own. We have a week to discuss every game, it's not baseball or basketball where they play 4 or 5 times a week. A whole week to add just 3 or 4 insights. That would be extremely useful, especially for more casual bettors. And guess what, if everyone here was more successful, then more people would come in which would birth even more information, and more people in different markets. That's why it's sad how it's currently being used.

 

[Yanko57]

I don't mean wasted in the information that is here, I mean wasted as in the information that is not. There are multiple people here outside of us 3 that post 3+ plays every week but they don't give their angle or take on their reasoning. Perhaps I say something you overlooked, or chicken mentions a last minute player who is sitting out. If everyone who uses this thread did that, there could be a wealth of information to parse with your own. We have a week to discuss every game, it's not baseball or basketball where they play 4 or 5 times a week. A whole week to add just 3 or 4 insights. That would be extremely useful, especially for more casual bettors. And guess what, if everyone here was more successful, then more people would come in which would birth even more information, and more people in different markets. That's why it's sad how it's currently being used.

I get it and here's the reasoning for my bets:


Ten/Oak UNDER 47.5:

I keep track of every team +/- and Spread results since start of season. Tennessee has been on the OVER the last 6 games. There's gotta be a return of the balance someday. Plus, now that Tannehill has been proven superhero material, he'll be more studied by othewr teams. Oakland will not play their best football after their recent BIG loss against KC. They'll be careful if they take the lead.

LAR +1 vs Seattle:

Seattle has played a very emotional game, on monday. They will not have enough energy to overcome the battling for their life rival Rams.

Det +13 vs Minnesota

Minnesota also played on Monday. They will not take divisionnal rival seriously enough and will be out of energy to have a good start away from home. Furthermore, Detroit lost the spread in their last 6 games. I believe in the return of the balance, once again.

 

[ribbybruno]

I just discovered this thread. I'm in if you let me

UNDER 47.5

Rams +1

Det +13

Welcome to the thread!

 

[Synopsis]

Tennessee have been putting some points up, raidera on the other hand have put up a average of under 10 in their last 3 games, and that includes games against the bengals, and the jets. I haven't looked too deeply into the lines this week yet, but my initial thought is that game goes over. I'll look more I to it, but I would expect Jacobs to have a big game and it makes carrs job easier.

I'd wait if you want on the rams. Seattle tends to attract late money, and people are not to keen on betting the rams. You should be able to get this at 2.5 later if you're lucky.

Wow, are they really laying 13? I would of expected 10.5. That said, I think they cover that with Detroit personnel issues and needing to gain some spots before the playoffs. I could see a back door cover, but more importantly a big line like this is easy to buy out of if you need because it will be heavily biased until later in the game.

I'll check back with some actual information tomorrow most likely after I cap the NFL games. This is just my initial thoughts on these 3.

I get it and here's the reasoning for my bets:


Ten/Oak UNDER 47.5:

I keep track of every team +/- and Spread results since start of season. Tennessee has been on the OVER the last 6 games. There's gotta be a return of the balance someday. Plus, now that Tannehill has been proven superhero material, he'll be more studied by othewr teams. Oakland will not play their best football after their recent BIG loss against KC. They'll be careful if they take the lead.

LAR +1 vs Seattle:

Seattle has played a very emotional game, on monday. They will not have enough energy to overcome the battling for their life rival Rams.

Det +13 vs Minnesota

Minnesota also played on Monday. They will not take divisionnal rival seriously enough and will be out of energy to have a good start away from home. Furthermore, Detroit lost the spread in their last 6 games. I believe in the return of the balance, once again.

 

[ribbybruno]

I don't mean wasted in the information that is here, I mean wasted as in the information that is not. There are multiple people here outside of us 3 that post 3+ plays every week but they don't give their angle or take on their reasoning. Perhaps I say something you overlooked, or chicken mentions a last minute player who is sitting out. If everyone who uses this thread did that, there could be a wealth of information to parse with your own. We have a week to discuss every game, it's not baseball or basketball where they play 4 or 5 times a week. A whole week to add just 3 or 4 insights. That would be extremely useful, especially for more casual bettors. And guess what, if everyone here was more successful, then more people would come in which would birth even more information, and more people in different markets. That's why it's sad how it's currently being used.

The thread started with just a few of us making picks a week. I have been giving away $20 to the best picking for the season in the thread. This is why some folks just drop off their picks. It is fine with me. More people will come in and they do. You are in the lead with your 94-20 record. I don't know why you wouldn't post. You are crushing it lol - :bike:
C'mon back and enjoy the thread! :icon_thum

 

[ribbybruno]

I get it and here's the reasoning for my bets:


Ten/Oak UNDER 47.5:

I keep track of every team +/- and Spread results since start of season. Tennessee has been on the OVER the last 6 games. There's gotta be a return of the balance someday. Plus, now that Tannehill has been proven superhero material, he'll be more studied by othewr teams. Oakland will not play their best football after their recent BIG loss against KC. They'll be careful if they take the lead.

LAR +1 vs Seattle:

Seattle has played a very emotional game, on monday. They will not have enough energy to overcome the battling for their life rival Rams.

Det +13 vs Minnesota

Minnesota also played on Monday. They will not take divisionnal rival seriously enough and will be out of energy to have a good start away from home. Furthermore, Detroit lost the spread in their last 6 games. I believe in the return of the balance, once again.

You might just take Oakland to win instead of the Under. Raiders had 9 points last game. I am sure Coach Gruden is not happy with that output. The Raiders will try and improve their scoring I am sure of it. Titans give up about 20 points a game and Raiders 27 points on average. 47.5 is pretty darn close - I don't believe the Raiders can hold Titans under 20 in my opinion. Raiders have given up 3,000 yds passing already.

I kind of like the Rams and then again I don't. Wishy washy performances! I don't know which team will show up? I do know who will show up when Seahawks play - Russell Wilson

I don't like Lions in Minnesota. Vikings played well and lost. Cousins and company will regroup and play hard. 13 points is a bunch in NFL. Watch the line! Lions defense 4th ranked in NFL - special teams not bad either - backdoor cover is possible

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 13 and overall

ribby (3-4)(41-49)
Risto (2-2)(17-21-1)
ChickenArise (1-2)(17-25-3)
imhighhommie (0-0)(14-15-1)
synopsis (0-0) (91-42)
TDTODDY (0-0)(16-15)
CRStals (4-3)(39-46-1)
Pokerski (3-7) (40-33)
wewillrockyou (0-0) (9-3)
mrrigel (0-0) (10-9-1)
Aremaz95 (0-0)(21-14)
odn(1-0)(2-0)
an9312 (0-0)(1-0)
LeeCallaghan (0-0) (1-0)
terryk (0-0) (2-0)
rmcmullen2003 (0-0) (1-1)
Jam V92 (0-0) (2-5)
an9312 (1-0)(3-1)
PelyaMX (0-0)(2-2)

Tough weeks ahead! Who can pick their way to a winning week? Let's Gooo!

 

[Risto234]

Sunday games ...

Browns vs Bengals; over 40.0 @1.91
Packers vs Redskins; over 41.5 @1.95

 

[Synopsis]

That's how I feel also. I always like the rams solely from the talent they have, but they don't show up the vast majority of the time. Rams and Dallas are 2 peas in a pod like that. Together these teams should have 3 or so losses, total.

I kind of like the Rams and then again I don't. Wishy washy performances! I don't know which team will show up? I do know who will show up when Seahawks play - Russell Wilson

 

[Yanko57]

Sunday games ...

Browns vs Bengals; over 40.0 @1.91
Packers vs Redskins; over 41.5 @1.95

I like the first as Dalton is back and ready.

I don't like the second as poor Redskins can have single digit in this one. Packers will rest some guys if they take a big lead early.

 

[Yanko57]

That's how I feel also. I always like the rams solely from the talent they have, but they don't show up the vast majority of the time. Rams and Dallas are 2 peas in a pod like that. Together these teams should have 3 or so losses, total.

You might just take Oakland to win instead of the Under. Raiders had 9 points last game. I am sure Coach Gruden is not happy with that output. The Raiders will try and improve their scoring I am sure of it. Titans give up about 20 points a game and Raiders 27 points on average. 47.5 is pretty darn close - I don't believe the Raiders can hold Titans under 20 in my opinion. Raiders have given up 3,000 yds passing already.

I kind of like the Rams and then again I don't. Wishy washy performances! I don't know which team will show up? I do know who will show up when Seahawks play - Russell Wilson

I don't like Lions in Minnesota. Vikings played well and lost. Cousins and company will regroup and play hard. 13 points is a bunch in NFL. Watch the line! Lions defense 4th ranked in NFL - special teams not bad either - backdoor cover is possible

If they don't find motivation in this game, they never will! But I do agree with you both that Rams should already have secured their postseason birth. They'll make a stand on Sunday...

Waiting for your picks

 

[Yanko57]

Also, do you have some kind of cash back on your predictions? I've always used the same site and I am searching for the best one...

 

[PokerSki]

I think in Week 14 the following teams will win


Dallas
Redskins
Vikings
Falcons
Saints
Browns
Tampa Bay
Texans
Dolphins
Bills
Chargers
Titans
Patriots
Cardinals
Seahawks
Giants

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 13 Sunday and Monday (3-2) +.80 Units/ +$80 Overall (41-49) -12.90 Units/-$1,290

Recap - Packers finish strong win by 18 (1-0) Steelers have big INT to close out Browns (1-0) TB scores but Jax sputters (0-1) SF/Bal have 34 in 1st half but 6 in second (0-1) and Seattle outlasted Minnesota on Monday night (1-0)

Week 14 Thursday-

Chicago(+3) Home vs Dallas - Both teams have identical team stats - should be a close game

1 Unit each - $100

 

[Synopsis]

No one on tonight's game?
Lots of interesting props. 1st td combo elliot/montgomery/robinson/cooper/miller is even money
Eliot over 83 is interesting because if Dallas gets a lead they will want to clock manage because they have a lot of nagging injuries like with cooper. It looks like people are considering that because the unders on all of cooper's props are juiced pretty heavy.

I think Dallas wins tonight. They are inconsistent but for the most part their defence plays well, and the bears are beyond inconsistent. Bears have offensive issues, and have all year, but recently their defence that was so ridiculous to start the year has been getting exposed. Lots of inside option away from mack, lots of screens to his side. Dallas are good at both of those things. I'd say both teams are desperate, but Dallas is a little more in the hole. I think the bears are about where most expected them to be but Dallas has given away a few games. Im not a fan of dak, and I expect him to give it away once or twice, but you have mitch on the other side who will do the same so I think daks errors won't be as much of a factor. Keep in mind, he is putting up stats. The offense on the whole are top tier in the league, I just tend to dwell more on daks bad plays. On paper, I capped this as a double digit away win. I see value in Dallas -3, and Dallas -1 first half. I also see an easy out at halftime if the Cowboys aren't being given productive offensively. I see a lot of inside draws, and a lot of passes to the flats. I expect them to drain the 4th quarter while elliot pads his stats. I just don't see the bears being productive enough on offense here to make Dallas have to play with urgency late 3rd to the end.

 

[Synopsis]

Also, I don't like trends so much, but Chicago have only covered 25 percent to of their games, while Dallas is about 60 percent. At this point of the season, that does show enough tendency to bring that information into the fold as a variable with everything else

 

[Synopsis]

Which stats are you looking at ribby? Dallas is 1st in the league in yards, Chicago is 29th. Dallas averages 2 yards more per play, 40 yards per drive compared or 25 for chicago and so on and so on.

Defensively they are similar, but on the other side it's not remotely close. I'm not questioning your play, I just curious if maybe you saw a past years results or something(I've done that before) because offensively the stats are extremely toward dallas. Dallas has 5200 yards on the season, Chicago has about 3300. Both have given up the same yards (within 30 for the season).

Week 13 Sunday and Monday (3-2) +.80 Units/ +$80 Overall (41-49) -12.90 Units/-$1,290

Recap - Packers finish strong win by 18 (1-0) Steelers have big INT to close out Browns (1-0) TB scores but Jax sputters (0-1) SF/Bal have 34 in 1st half but 6 in second (0-1) and Seattle outlasted Minnesota on Monday night (1-0)

Week 14 Thursday-

Chicago(+3) Home vs Dallas - Both teams have identical team stats - should be a close game

1 Unit each - $100

 

[Synopsis]

I'm thinking jerry is personally going to go into that locker room and say a few things. That call on 3rd just outside the red zone was rather poor. The coaching is just coaching to play, not to win. You have a hot back like that, you use him on 3rd and short, and unless he gets bricked you go for it on 4th. Instead you miss a fg and that turns into a td for chicago. I like Dallas -3 second half, and over 20.5. Dallas is going to have to be desperate and that will equate to points, even if it's for chicago. I don't see how this guy still has this Dallas job, he has proved to be a failing coach for years now. His philosophy just doesn't work. It's a very passive type of playing. You have the top offence in the league, and you have a decent defence, yet you're a .500 team, on the verge of being below 500. Explain that.

 

[Synopsis]

So... you have a back that was having a big game, and a qb who was like 33 percent completion. You're down at half, you come out and throw 7 times, and run only twice??? I know everyone is an armchair coach when they are watching, but can someone explain the logic with this to me? Apparently I'm stupid.
Edit. They just scored and this is a key time to buy out of their mess. Line is -9.5 chicago.

 

[Synopsis]

Chicago answered back real fast... yet the live line only moved 2 points to 11.5. That's curious. I almost feel like that's a trap, but it's appealing none the less.

 

[Synopsis]

Live is 9.5 again. I'm all over that. They need 10, so they will do a fg. Just gets out of the other one really.

Side note. That's unreal that elliots prop won't cover after having 70+ in the first half. Pretty sick

 

[Synopsis]

Ugly.
Elliots prop lost... by 2 yards, because they just ignored him the second half
1st to combo won. Elliot had the first td
Dallas full and half lost
Second half over won.
Got out of Chicago live toward the end there.

2-3 tonight
That elliott prop losing really makes me feel robbed. Would have been 3-2 with that. It's just unfathomable how that lost. He was the best player on the field the first half, and they let him run just a few times the second half. He had 72 in the first half and only needed 83... that one's tough to take.

Anyone watch this game have any feedback as to those coaching choices? Garret has to have some dirt on Jones or something. Maybe he has one of his grandkids kidnapped and the job is the ransom. I've never seen a coach this bad keep the same job this long, and it's at a high team too, it's not like he is coaching at akron in collage or something.

 

[ribbybruno]

Which stats are you looking at ribby? Dallas is 1st in the league in yards, Chicago is 29th. Dallas averages 2 yards more per play, 40 yards per drive compared or 25 for chicago and so on and so on.

Defensively they are similar, but on the other side it's not remotely close. I'm not questioning your play, I just curious if maybe you saw a past years results or something(I've done that before) because offensively the stats are extremely toward dallas. Dallas has 5200 yards on the season, Chicago has about 3300. Both have given up the same yards (within 30 for the season).

Worded that wrong - Defenses are similar. Defense within 30 for the season - Chicago only giving up 17 points a game and Dallas only giving up 19 on average - but all that is moot after both teams scored 55 combined lol